Hossa Shouldn't Be Re-Signed

Remember at the end of Goodfellas when Henry Hill (Ray Liotta) started talking to the camera about how great his life was as a gangster?

How they got whatever they wanted, that everyone had their hand out and everything was for the taking?

He was lamenting about these things because he was about to enter the witness protection program and was going to have to get used to life as an ordinary guy, having to "wait around like everyone else."

As they are now looking to re-sign Marian Hossa in the salary cap era, I have to think the Detroit Red Wings can really relate to that scene.

Before the cap, the Red Wings got whoever they wanted, everyone wanted to play there and no price was too high if it meant winning.

Still, to this point, the Red Wings have probably been the best in the NHL at getting just  who they want and just what they need to be successful.

They pulled off two great heists just this year signing superstar Henrik Zetterberg to a 12 year contract and rising star Johan Franzen to an 11-year contract.

Both players left money on the table to stay in Detroit and the shear length of both contracts ensured that even their discounted annual salaries would count for even less against the cap.

Some have suggested that Red Wings GM Ken Holland is working on pulling off a similar deal with Marian Hossa.  However, even considering Holland's uncanny ability to work within (that's right, that's "within" not "around") the cap, I'd be surprised to see Hossa in Detroit next year.

Hossa has said all year that, whereever he lands after the season, he wants a long-term contract.

Now, given his lackluster performance in the playoffs and a salary cap that isn't going to get much higher than it is today, he might have to take less money than he received this year.

But, even if he was willing to sign, say a $6-million/6-year deal, Detroit would still be ill-advised to take that contract on.

The Red Wings have their top two forwards in Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk, Franzen, their lone power forward, and Brian Rafalski, their No. 2 defenseman locked up long-term; not a bad group of guys to have in that situation.

However, starting next season, these four players will account for a nearly $25 million cap hit.

Signing Hossa to the hypothetical $6-million/6-year deal would mean that Detroit would have over 50 percent of their cap space tied up in five guys.

This might not be such a bad thing if some guy named Lidstrom wasn't in the last year of his contract.

Lidstrom will be paid $7.45 million next year.

It is hard to imagine him playing beyond the 2009-10 season.

He will be 40 years old, and he's already a living legend who owns approximately a metric ton of NHL awards.

One would have to think that retiring as one of the best players in the history of the game would be an appealing option to him and his family (which he can apparently still grow despite Patrick Sharp's brief detour as a ball hockey player).

So, while replacing Lidstrom is an impossible feat, even for Ken Holland, having his $7.45 million to work with in finding a new defensemen would not be a bad position to be in.

But, by 2011, Chris Osgood may be thinking about following in Lidstrom's footsteps as he will be 38 and at the end of his contract.

Holland will need to think about getting a goalie and he's likely not going to find a good one at Osgood's bargain basement $1.7 million annual salary (yes, that is a bargain basement price for Chris Osgood).

So, what the hell does all of this have to do with Marian Hossa?

Timing.

Holland could sign Hossa now to that hypothetical deal and though he'd likely lose solid role players like Jiri Hudler and Mikael Samuelsson, Detroit would still ice a formidable team next season.

However, if players like Darren Helm, Jonathan Ericcsson and Justin Abdelkader develop into players their strong performances in the playoffs suggest they will be, they'll all be due a hefty raise in a couple of years.

Throw in the possible departures of Lidstrom and Osgood and Holland suddenly has two significant holes to fill, three strong players due a raise and again, 50 percent of his cap tied up in five guys.

That's the kind of steaming pile that Holland and the Red Wings have been so adept at stepping around for several years, I find it hard to believe their going to smash right into it by signing Hossa for a big money, long-term contract.

The reason the Red Wings have been perennial contenders for over a decade is that they think about the future just as much as they think about the present.

They not only want to win now, they want to win five years from now.

By signing Hossa now, they will undoubtedly have to sacrifice their future and again, this just isn't something Detroit is comfortable doing.

All this being said, Hossa is a great fit in Detroit.

He has both the offensive talent and defensive abilities that have come to define the quintessential Red Wing star forward.

Like those star forwards, such as Steve Yzerman and Henrik Zetterberg, he doesn't seem to know just how good he is and if he does, he doesn't show it.

This humility has likewise made him a great fit in the Detroit locker room , a place where you check what ego you have at the door and quietly go about being the best team in the NHL.

Believe me, the Red Wings and (most of) their fans really want Hossa to stay in Detroit.

However, the cost that that contract would carry would not only be measured in the form of a cap hit, but in the cap it would put on the team's future.

That cap, more so than the salary cap, is one the Red Wings have managed better than any other team in the past 15 years and one I don't see them mismanaging in order to sign Hossa.