Final Four 2014: Updated Odds and Picks for NCAA Semifinals
The regional champions have been determined for the 2014 NCAA tournament, setting the stage for an exciting Final Four to cap off a thrilling entry of March Madness.
Although the seeds are diverse, all four programs that made it to the national semifinals are steeped in rich tradition. No. 1 overall seed Florida will have its hands full with an upstart seventh seed in Connecticut. The other semifinal clash features the preeminent Kentucky Wildcats, headlined by precocious freshmen, taking on the Wisconsin Badgers.
There's still almost a week to wait before the Final Four gets underway, but it isn't too early to make picks to determine the national championship participants.
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Below is an overview of each matchup, odds and predictions for the action in Arlington's AT&T Stadium.
All Your Bracket Essentials:
| No. 1 Florida vs. No. 7 Connecticut | Florida -6.5 | 6:09 p.m. | TBS | Florida |
| No. 2 Wisconsin vs. No. 8 Kentucky | Kentucky -2 | 8:49 p.m. | TBS | Kentucky |
Predictions for NCAA Semifinals
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 7 Connecticut
A compelling coaching matchup and a battle of sensational senior guards highlights this showdown. Billy Donovan finally got his Gators over the hump after three consecutive losses in the Elite Eight, while Kevin Ollie has guided the Huskies to the Final Four in his second season and first NCAA tourney overall.
That can't be understated. Ollie has succeeded Jim Calhoun in style and lived up to impossible expectations, helping to carry this No. 7 seed through the difficult East. ESPN's Matthew Berry pointed out how few people saw this matchup coming:
But as well as these coaches will prepare their players, Florida point guard Scottie Wilbekin and UConn's Shabazz Napier will go a long way in deciding this one.
Wilbekin led the Gators with 23 points in winning the South Region final over Dayton, but ESPN Stats & Info highlighted a remarkable statistic to do with his ball security:
Kemba Walker carried the Huskies to their last NCAA title, and he made a bold proclamation about Napier after he notched 25 points in Sunday's win over Michigan State:
That gives some idea as to the quality of guard play in this game.
What will determine the outcome is the frontcourt, where the Gators have a big advantage. Florida should generate more second-chance opportunities and clear out faster thanks to athletic center Patric Young on the front line. Considering Napier is the Huskies' leading rebounder, Young and the Gators should have no problem hitting the glass hard.
Florida is capable of running fast breaks yet also executing half-court offense exceptionally well. Even though Ollie has instilled a defensive identity in his UConn squad, the Gators have too much depth across the board and enough individual threats that can create their own offense to get past the Huskies.
There's a vengeance factor here, too, because Napier sank a buzzer-beater in Storrs back in December to beat Florida 65-64.
Plus, Donovan has Florida tied for first in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com. With Napier being the only threat to get his own shot, the Gators match up well to march on to the national final.
Prediction: Florida 70, Connecticut 58
No. 2 Wisconsin vs. No. 8 Kentucky
A new-age big man battle will define this contest. Wisconsin's seven-foot dynamo Frank Kaminsky devastated a top-flight Arizona defense to push the Badgers through the Elite Eight in overtime, where he led all scorers with 28 points.
Kaminsky is so dangerous because of his crafty footwork and finishing ability around the basket and his knack for knocking down three-pointers. He will meet his match with Kentucky freshman phenom Julius Randle.
The Wildcats—against all odds and after a mediocre regular season—pushed through the Midwest Region by defeating three of last year's Final Four teams in a row. Talk about rising to the occasion.
At the epicenter of that success has been Randle, who's had a double-double in every NCAA tourney game thus far. With guard-like ball-handling skills and the quickness to take opponents off the dribble, he is a rare threat to foil Kaminsky.
Twins Aaron and Andrew Harrison have elevated their play in Kentucky's backcourt, which has been a big part of the Wildcats' turnaround. The former sibling drilled a dagger three in Sunday's triumph over Michigan:
What stood out about that win was how Kentucky dominated the paint despite the absence of Willie Cauley-Stein. The play of center Dakari Johnson and especially Marcus Lee—who had 10 points, eight rebounds and two blocks off the bench—shows that the Wildcats are deeper than meets the eye on the front line.
They also have hearts that champions are made of. Coach John Calipari hinted at this after the game, per the Courier-Journal's Kyle Tucker:
Combine that with their length on the perimeter between the Harrisons and James Young, and that's nothing but bad news for the Badgers.
Kentucky is finally playing together and has the prototypical athlete in Randle to give Kaminsky problems at both ends of the court. That should be enough for the Wildcats' incredible run to continue with a close win.
Even though they're the far lower seed, Calipari's young bunch is favored by oddsmakers in the early going. There's a reason for that, and Kentucky will prove it this coming Saturday.
Prediction: Kentucky 76, Wisconsin 72
If these predictions do indeed come to fruition, a national championship featuring Florida and Kentucky would be nothing short of epic. The Gators have four seniors at their core who have endured heartbreak the past three years and will finally try to go out on top with college basketball's top prize in tow.
In stark contrast, the Wildcats are continuing to shatter the perception that a loaded recruiting class can't compete with more seasoned squads. Calipari has silenced doubters by sticking by his young players, who have fought to figure something out all year.
Needless to say, it's been fascinating to see Kentucky capitalize on its promise at the perfect time and trigger a bizarre Cinderella run of sorts. This would be a rematch of the SEC tournament final, too, where Florida edged the Wildcats 61-60.
That proved to be a launching point for Kentucky, proving it could contend with any team in the country. The Wildcats have driven that point home during March Madness, and they now are two wins away from making the history they were tabbed to make as the preseason No. 1.
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