The State of Duke Basketball: Mike Krzyzewski's Recruiting Misses

The Duke Blue Devils finished last season with 30 wins, an ACC tournament title, and a trip to the Sweet 16. That's a successful season by any stretch of the imagination.

But ask a Duke fan about the state of the program, and you're likely to hear something that sounds like Chicken Little's doomsday forecasts of the sky falling.

That's because regular season victories and ACC tournament titles (the Blue Devils have won eight of the last 11) don't amount to much in Durham.

What does matter are wins against the North Carolina Tar Heels and trips to the Final Four, which have been rare occurrences in recent years.

To be fair, the standard that Mike Krzyzewski has set at Duke is unbelievably high; perhaps too high to realistically sustain. We're talking about a coach who once led the Blue Devils to seven Final Fours in nine years. No other program has had more wins this decade, and no other coach has as many NCAA tournament victories.

Duke has won an average of 27.8 games per season since their last Final Four appearance in 2004. In those five seasons, they have won three ACC tournament titles and have been to the Sweet 16 three times. That hardly seems like struggling.

As such, few teams have earned the scrutiny that the Blue Devils face.

Of course, scrutinizing Duke basketball has been easier in the last few seasons than in years past. Chalk it up to unrealistic fan expectations or being the victim of its own success, but Duke hasn't had very Duke-like seasons in recent years.  

Fans are wondering when the Blue Devils will be back on top.

Krzyzewski is in the midst of just his second five-year stretch without a Final Four. The last stretch occurred in his first five seasons coaching the team—and that was before he had the reputation of one of college basketball's greatest coaches and the recruiting perks that come along with that legacy.

So while the first five-year drought can easily be attributed to a young coach taking time to build his program, what has caused the recent drought?

Two things: recruiting misses and development issues.

Recruiting Misses

It might be hard to look at Duke's roster—which will feature seven McDonald's All-Americans next season—and assume that the Blue Devils have been plagued with recruiting issues in the past few seasons. But recent years have been bittersweet for Duke recruiting.

While Krzyzewski has landed several gems in players like Gerald Henderson, Jon Scheyer, and Kyle Singler in recent recruiting classes, he has missed out on several consecutive top recruiting targets.

In 2006, Krzyzewski lost Brandan Wright to rival North Carolina. In 2007, Patrick Patterson opted for Kentucky. Greg Monroe decided to attend Georgetown in 2008, and both Kenny Boynton and John Wall went elsewhere (Florida and Kentucky, respectfully) for 2009.

Except for Patterson (Singler was arguably a higher priority for the 2007 class), each of those players was a top target for Duke in their respective recruiting classes, and Patterson was high on the list to his credit.

The result of those misses has left Duke without the final pieces to being a legitimate Final Four contender.

So why exactly has Duke missed out on so many top targets in consecutive years?

Coach K's involvement with Olympic basketball is one reason.

The aforementioned Patterson, Monroe, and Boynton (Duke didn't get involved with John Wall until after Boynton committed to Florida) were all missed out on during Krzyzewski's time with Team USA. You could even add Rutgers big man Greg Echenique, Monroe's late backup plan, to that list.

The Team USA gig could still turn out to be recruiting gold for Krzyzewski in the future. But even if it does, that gold will come at a price (just imagine last year's Duke team with Patterson and Monroe and that price becomes apparent).

Another factor to consider in Duke's recent woes is Krzyzewski's recruitment strategy. 

Krzyzewski has always been known to recruit fewer players, often going after only one high-profile player per needed position in order to convey to that recruit how special Duke thinks he is.

This strategy worked for years but has begun to backfire the past few seasons. Too often the Blue Devils have been left with few backup options when these players choose another school late in their recruiting process (Krzyzewski may have wised up, as he is openly recruiting the top three point guards for the 2010 class).

There are other factors that could be considered, but recruiting fewer players while having less time to court them due to Olympic team commitments has been a recipe for recruiting disaster for Krzyzewski.

For the next few weeks, we'll be analyzing the state of the Duke basketball program. We'll look into what has led to the Blue Devils' struggles of late and try to determine when (or if) Duke looks poised to return as the premier program in college basketball.

Check back next week for an analysis of Duke's player development issues.