Magic-Lakers: Erick Blasco's NBA Finals' Preview and Prediction

The 2009 NBA Finals presents a dichotomy of teams who rely on different scripts.

On one page, there’s the championship-pedigreed Los Angeles Lakers whose sole task this season is to capture a title. But they don’t always play with the effort level and focus needed to win in the playoffs.

On the opposite page, there’s the Orlando Magic—a resilient bunch whose best attribute is their never-say-die attitude. They rely on alternate methods of victory rather than tried-and-true formulas—outside-in basketball, jump shooting, and a quick-shooting point guard rather than conventional grind-it-out, post-oriented teams of the past.

As always, and especially in this Disney vs. Hollywood showdown, the victor will be determined by the best performers at their position.

Point Guard

Rafer Alston is too quick for Derek Fisher, but the Lakers can take solace in the fact that Alston is a streaky shooter, who often forces shots and passes into closed quarters. He also takes unwise chances with the ball from time to time.

However, when Alston gets on a hot streak, he provides another extra shooter to space the floor with.

On defense, Alston is a better help than individual defender—an advantage for the Magic— because Fisher isn’t adept at beating players off the dribble.

However, Fisher’s role is simply to not make mistakes and plug open-threes. If he makes less mistakes than Alston, the Lakers will consider the matchup a win.

Anthony Johnson is smart and tough but lacks the foot speed to deal with the shifty Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown. Plus, Brown doubles as a tough defender who can deal with Johnson’s wide body on defense.

The X-Factor is Jameer Nelson, who is a tough, gutty player with a penchant for making big plays when Orlando needs it the most.

Advantage: Even

Frontcourt

This is where the most interesting questions will be answered. Should the Lakers keep their traditional lineup of starting Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum? If this is the case, Gasol will likely be covered by Rashard Lewis—an obvious mismatch favoring the Lakers, where Gasol’s size and quickness in the pivot will overwhelm Lewis.

Also, unlike Samuel Dalembert, Kendrick Perkins, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Andrew Bynum has a living, breathing post-up game. However, his inability to jump and explode should allow Howard’s shot-altering skills to trump the matchup.

If Howard has to double off Bynum to cover Gasol, then Gasol’s beautiful passwork and Bynum’s ability to finish over Orlando’s smaller wings dropping down will provide the Lakers with countless high-percentage looks.

If the Magic double-down from the perimeter, Kobe and Ariza are extremely accurate open shooters and talented dribble-drivers against poorly closing-out opponents. And if Fisher’s been a subpar shooter so far in the playoffs, he should improve in the Finals.

However, on the other end of the court, Lewis can just as easily torture Gasol with his various face-up moves, his ability to use screens, and his jump shooting. With Gasol so unaccustomed to playing that far from the basket, Lewis (or Hedo Turkoglu) may be able to explode for points. Ditto if Bynum is forced to take a turn on Lewis or Turkoglu.

Bynum has the size and quickness to keep Howard out of premier-post position down low though, while Gasol’s slender frame will get pushed around by Howard.

However, Gasol can counter by being quicker than Howard and using his long-limbs to deflect his dribbles. Also, Gasol’s length is better at funneling players into double teams, which will be employed should Howard prove to have difficulty passing on the move.

These reasons are why it is expected that the Lakers start and end games with Lamar Odom on the court. He has the quickness to handle Orlando’s wing penetrations, and his tricky dribbles and speedy cuts should be too quick for the Magic, especially if Howard or Turkoglu is defending him.

The move would allow Gasol to operate one-on-one where his quick drives and outside shooting will have an effect. Not to mention his ability to occupy Howard away from the basket and then pass to cutters will frustrate him into foul trouble.

D.J. Mbenga may be called upon for extra fouls on Howard and as someone to give Dwight an occasional bump and bang in the post. For the Magic, Marcin Gortat plays hard and is a clever finisher and rotator.

However, he lacks the sufficient size and skill level to handle Gasol, Odom, and Bynum. Tony Battie will snare an occasional rebound and hit an occasional jumper, but should play few minutes in the series.

The X-Factor is Odom. If he can’t match up with Turkoglu or Lewis defensively, he’ll be just as big a liability as Gasol would be, without being able to counter by being an offensive mismatch. He must come through with aggressive, focused performances.

Advantage: Lakers

Wings

Courtney Lee doesn’t have the size, experience or strength to handle Kobe Bryant, nor does he have the offensive game to occupy Kobe on the other end. As such, expect Kobe to put the youngster out of his misery early.

Only Mickael Pietrus has the length and athleticism to give Kobe a battle, but unlike LeBron James, Kobe’s skills are much more complex.

Whereas against LeBron, Pietrus’ goal was to sag slightly off LeBron, force him left, and sit on his right shoulder preventing a spin-back.

Meanwhile, Kobe has an infinitely better mid-range and long-range jumper, and has a better handle to keep from being pushed in a specific direction. And he has ways to counter a defender’s machinations.

Most teams, who challenge Kobe and live to tell about it, do so by allowing him to shoot as many contested jumpers as he’d like while forming a wall at the rim to prevent layups. Of course denying the ball is also a major component to denying Kobe.

Houston employed that kind of defense and prevented Kobe from dissecting them from the inside out. Of course, the Rockets had a disciplined defender in Shane Battier and incredibly well-coordinated help to achieve their success. And in the end, they were punished by Bryant’s supporting cast.

The Celtics also had success corralling Bryant, by crowding him on the perimeter, walling off the basket, and when the initial defender was beat, a second wing would be in the area ready to contest the jump shot.

Denver tried double-teaming Bryant, but would give Bryant strong-side release passes, neutralizing the effect of the doubles. Also, J.R. Smith had success waiting for Kobe to put the ball on the ground and then ripping it away from him. But as a result of Smith having his hands down, Bryant sank jumper after uncontested jumper in his face.

Unlike the Celtics, Rockets, and even the Nuggets, the Magic don’t have the versatile front court to provide both strong and quick interior help. Howard is their only bastion of defense and he’s prone to foul trouble.

This is why Pietrus’ best method of defense is to overplay Bryant on the denial side, and when he does get the ball, stay an arm length’s back and dare Bryant to shoot the Lakers to victory.

While it’s possible for a single player to shoot a team single-handily to one or two Finals victories, rarely does a player simply shoot a team to four wins.

Trevor Ariza has stepped up big time as a cut-throat shooter on the wing who will punish Orlando for any double team and subsequent late rotation.

Plus, he has enough of a dribble-drive game to take Turkoglu off the dribble a handful of possessions.

These factors lead one to believe that Los Angeles’ wings will have no problems scoring over the course of the series.

When Orlando has the ball, they love to run screen/rolls with Turkoglu, who’s possesses a unique combination of size, shooting, vision, and smarts. His ability to read defenses off the screens make Orlando’s offense truly magical.

The Lakers will defend Turkoglu with Ariza (or Kobe late in the game), but regardless of the matchup, the Lakers have major problems defending screen/rolls, and have had so for years.

This is why players such as Paul Pierce, Aaron Brooks, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams have had so much success against the Lakers.

LA’s best method of defense should be to go over the screens involving Turkoglu. Either provide help from the wings or corners forcing Lee and Alston to beat the Lakers with three-point shooting, or force Turkoglu to finish over a big man at the rim with his right hand.

Under no circumstances should a defender go under the screen or allow Turkoglu to his left hand.

Courtney Lee has a good stroke and a quick pull-up jumper, but rarely scores on anything besides broken plays.

Off the bench, Luke Walton can post Turkoglu and pass to open cutters or shooters should the Magic send help or stargaze, while Sasha Vujacic will play overly aggressive defense, make mistakes, and miss open jumpers.

Pietrus, like Ariza, has developed into a gunner extraordinaire who’ll sink the open jumpers Los Angeles provides him.

The X-Factor is LA’s screen/roll defense. If they can’t contain Turkoglu, they’ll give up just as many points as they’ll score.

Advantage: Lakers

Overall, the Lakers have the most dynamic player in the series. They have more diverse offense, more weapons and ways to use those weapons, superior coaching, and more experience. What Orlando has is heart, guts, and a never-say-die attitude which will assassinate the Lakers should they overlook the Magic before or during any game.

Expect the Lakers to take a game or two to identify the best way to defend Orlando’s screen game and identify exactly how Orlando adjusts its defense. For Orlando, the minute their jump shooting goes cold will be the minute their Disney fairytale strikes midnight.

This one will go to the A-Lister's on the red carpet.

Prediction: Lakers in Six Games