Projecting the MVPs for Every NFL Divisional Playoff Matchup

The NFL doesn't officially acknowledge playoff game MVPs until the Super Bowl, but the viewing public does. Heck, viewers and analysts tend to pick their own anyway.

We take a look at the divisional playoff games here, projecting the game MVPs for each matchup. Granted, the quarterbacks most often have the most impact on games for their team, but we dig a tad bit deeper. Some quarterbacks obviously carry just too much importance. Uh, like Peyton Manning. Hello!

As for the projection of the game winners—because MVPs are almost exclusively from the winning team—we are not going to vary too much from the odds-on favorites. Las Vegas oddsmakers are in business for a reason, after all.

Enjoy this matchup-by-matchup, four-part slideshow, and share with us your thoughts on who will wind up each game's MVP in the comments section below.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks—MVP: RB Marshawn Lynch

No. 6 New Orleans Saints at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks

• Date: Saturday, Jan. 11 at 4:35 p.m. ET
• Forecast: Rain and wind (around 25 mph), temperatures in the mid-40s
• Last Meeting: Seattle 34, New Orleans 7 (Dec. 2, 2013)
• Line: Seattle -7.5, O/U 46

The New Orleans Saints defense has enjoyed a huge turnaround year over year with the addition of coordinator Rob Ryan, but most of the statistical success was against the pass. This matchup pits the two best pass defenses in football—with Seattle being No. 1 and New Orleans a surprising No. 2.

The last time these teams met, though, it was quarterback Russell Wilson ruling the day. With Marshawn Lynch bottled up (16 carries for 45 yards), Wilson used play-action passes to pick apart one of the best pass defenses in football. Wilson finished 22-of-30 for 310 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for 47 yards.

Naturally, Lynch is our pick for this divisional playoff game MVP—smirk.

The game figures to be played a lot closer than it was in early December, and the weather conditions don't project to be favorable for the passing game. Rain and wind (27 mph in the forecast) are the two worst conditions for passing—and, mind you, the two best pass defenses in football are matched up here.

That is bad news for Drew Brees and Co., who struggled mightily the last trip to the Great Northwest. Count on this being a day for the defenses and running games.

The Seahawks win, if only because they are at home with the 12th Man and the weather conditions. Lynch is the bell cow this go around, like he was the last time these two teams met in the postseason. Lynch ran for 131 yards and a touchdown as the Seahawks knocked off the Saints 41-36 in the 2010 Wild Card matchup in Seattle (Jan. 8, 2011).

Final Score: Seattle 26, New Orleans 20

MVP: RB Marshawn Lynch, 110 yards and two touchdowns

Honorable Mention I: QB Russell Wilson

It is conceivable this game plays out similar to last time. The Saints stack the box and force Wilson to beat them. If they do that, Wilson will beat them with play-action. Lynch and Robert Turbin could eat up the middle of the field, and Wilson can hit those short touchdown passes to make him the game-changer.

Honorable Mention II: QB Drew Brees

Clearly, if the Saints are going to have a chance to win this game, Brees is going to have to perform a lot better than he did the last time out. He needs a 300-yard passing day with three-plus touchdowns, not something he is unaccustomed to.

The problem is that the Seahawks haven't allowed 300-plus-yard, three-touchdown performance all season. Matt Schaub (355 yards, two TDs in Week 4 was the only one close). Heck, the Seahawks have only allowed a 200-plus-yard passer in four of 16 games this season—and none since Week 7. Brees really needs a big day in a real tough matchup for him.

Odds Stat

Here are odds for who will be the rushing leader for the divisional round, courtesy of Bovada, (www.Bovada.lv, Twitter: @BovadaLV).

PLAYER	TEAM	ODDS
Marshawn Lynch	Seattle	7/4
Knowshon Moreno	Denver	4/1
Ryan Mathews	San Diego	5/1
Frank Gore	San Francisco	6/1
DeAngelo Williams	Carolina	7/1
Cam Newton	Carolina	7/1
Colin Kaepernick	San Francisco	7/1

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots—MVP: RB LeGarrette Blount

No. 4 Indianapolis Colts at No. 2 New England Patriots

• Date: Saturday, Jan. 11 at 8:15 p.m. ET
• Forecast: Rain and wind (around 20 mph), temperatures in the low-50s
• Last Meeting: New England 59, Indianapolis 24 (Nov. 18, 2012)
• Line: New England -7, O/U 52

Yet another game expected to be played in unseasonably warm yet sloppy conditions unfavorable to the passing game. Despite this, you are certain to see some kind of shootout between already-NFL legend Tom Brady and burgeoning NFL legend Andrew Luck, but, as we wrote in Bleacher Report's Biggest Mismatches on Thursday, Bill Belchick is going to try to play keep away from Luck and the Colts with the power running game.

Here is where LeGarrette Blount becomes the linchpin.

Blount has emerged as the Patriots' go-to back down the stretch, rushing for a season-high 189 yards in Week 17 against the Buffalo Bills. The Colts, like the Bills, have struggled stopping the run. Indy is one of eight teams to have allowed 2,000-plus yards rushing this season.

While the Pats might not be afraid to pit Brady against Luck in a shootout, they are going to try to slow the game down and control the clock from the start. Having this game at home and in wet and windy conditions certainly suits that plan.

Final Score: New England 30, Indianapolis 23

MVP: LeGarrette Blount, 125 yards and two touchdowns

Honorable Mention I: QB Tom Brady

If not for the matchup and weather conditions, Brady would be the obvious pick to be the MVP in any Patriots game. The weather won't be as much of a factor as the game plan. The Pats just match up really well with their power running game. Brady can still steal the thunder, though, hitting his sneaky slot receivers for scores.

Honorable Mention II: QB Andrew Luck

Like the preceding NFC matchup, this underdog's best chance is leaning on the right arm and heroics of their quarterback. Luck threw three interceptions, two for touchdowns, in his rookie-year trip up to Foxborough but he is decidedly smarter and more dangerous as a second-year pro.

If you are looking to win some bar bets this weekend, you can with this one: Who has more 400-yard passing performances in their careers, Brady or Luck? Luck has one in two career playoff games. Brady has...drum roll...none!

Key Stat

Brady has won 17 games in the playoffs, the most by a quarterback in NFL history and has a 17-7 (.708) postseason record. He is the No. 1 reason Belichick has the third-most playoff wins ever for a coach. Chuck Pagano has just one.

Here are the top five all-time NFL coaches for playoff wins:

HEAD COACH	TEAM(S)	PLAYOFF WINS
Tom Landry	Dallas Cowboys	20
Don Shula	Baltimore Colts, Miami Dolphins	19
Bill Belichick	Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots	18
Joe Gibbs	Washington Redskins	17
Chuck Noll	Pittsburgh Steelers	16

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers—MVP: TE Vernon Davis

No. 5 San Francisco 49ers at No. 2 Carolina Panthers

• Date: Sunday, Jan. 12 at 1:05 p.m. ET
• Forecast: Sunny and dry, temperatures in the 50s
• Last Meeting: Carolina 10, San Francisco 9 (Nov. 10, 2013)
• Line: San Francisco -1, O/U 41.5
  

Two great defenses match up here in what should be near perfect football conditions, ironically. These defenses should play each other in subzero temperatures and a blizzard.

There wasn't much to choose between these teams in the previous meeting this season, and there doesn't figure to be much of a difference in this one either. We did find a couple of factors that can sway the game into San Francisco's favor, though:

1. Playoff experience
2. Michael Crabtree's late-season return
3. Vernon Davis' health

As we outlined in Bleacher Report's Biggest Mismatches on Thursday, Davis missed most of the past meeting with a concussion, and Crabtree wasn't yet back from his Achilles surgery. The red hot Davis, who has a touchdown in seven of San Francisco's past eight games, can exploit a defense that was great against everything except tight ends this season, particularly since Crabtree now commands attention on the outside.

"Those are two very dynamic weapons in our offense," offensive tackle Joe Staley told Alexis Terrazas of The San Francisco Examiner. "They do a terrific job of opening up the defense and creating mismatches."

San Francisco has Crabtree to stretch the field, Anquan Boldin to keep you honest in underneath possession routes and Davis to split the seam. It is a trio even the Panthers will struggle to contain for four quarters of a defensive slugfest.

Exploiting a mismatch is what you have to do against an elite defense. Head coach Jim Harbaugh has been great at that the past few postseasons.

Final Score: San Francisco 21, Carolina 20

MVP: TE Vernon Davis, 110 yards receiving and two touchdowns

Honorable Mention I: QB Cam Newton

The game isn't obviously in San Francisco's favor, though. The Carolina Panthers beat the 49ers on the road, and the Panthers have played great football at home, where they 7-1 this season, the lone loss coming to the No. 1 seed Seattle Seahawks, 12-7, in the season opener.

If the Panthers are going to win the game on offense, it will come at the hands—actually, the arm or legs—of Newton. The problem with that is what Newton has in dynamic, indefensible skills, he lacks in postseason experience.

"This is going to be a new venture for me, and I'm going to try and make the most of it," Newton, making his postseason debut, said in the NFL media notes. "You have to play each and every play like it's your last, because it may be."

Honorable Mention II: RB Frank Gore

While it will have to be Colin Kaepernick getting the ball to those San Francisco receiving threats—not to mention Kaepernick's legs creating things out of the pocket—our backup MVP pick for the 49ers goes to the running back Gore.

If this game becomes a ground-and-pound battle, Gore will have to do the heavy lifting against the Panthers' second-ranked run defense. If he can reach 80 yards and the end zone in a 10-7 defensive struggle, it would be enough for MVP honors—if the NFL awarded such a thing in divisional playoff games.

Historical Stat

Postseason experience gives the 49ers an edge here. Here is a list of the teams with the most appearances in a conference championship game since 1970: 

TEAM	CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP APPEARANCES
Pittsburgh Steelers	15
San Francisco 49ers	14
Dallas Cowboys	14
L.A./Oakland Raiders	11
L.A./St. Louis Rams	9
New England Patriots	9

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos—MVP: QB Peyton Manning

No. 6 San Diego Chargers at No. 1 Denver Broncos

• Date: Sunday, Jan. 12 at 4:40 p.m. ET
• Forecast: Party cloudy and windy (around 20 mph), temperatures around freezing (32 degrees)
• Last Meeting: San Diego 27, Denver 20 (Dec. 12, 2013)
• Line: Denver -9.5, O/U 55
  

Peyton Manning has some playoff demons to exorcise. He was beaten in this round a season ago against the Baltimore Ravens. He has been beaten by Philip Rivers and the Chargers in the postseason before. And Rivers has won six of eight games in Denver since the Chargers changed quarterbacks from Drew Brees to Rivers.

But this has been Manning's year—the greatest season for a quarterback in NFL history (at least in terms of regular-season statistics).

It also might be his last shot to erase the stigma he's received as a poor postseason quarterback. That is a mark that tends to tarnish a legacy like no other. Ask Dan Marino.

Expect a game effort from Manning, no matter the conditions. Manning is accustomed to this pressure and stage. He is also well-equipped with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, a returning Wes Welker (concussion) and a seemingly unstoppable tight end in Julius Thomas.

Match all that offensive firepower up against the fourth-worst pass defense in football and you have a scenario for a trademark dominant Manning performance.

Final Score: Denver 31, San Diego 24

MVP: QB Peyton Manning, 400 yards passing and four touchdowns

Honorable Mention I: QB Philip Rivers

The Chargers have been more of a run-oriented team, particularly down the stretch, but the Broncos are in the top eight of the NFL against the run this season. It will be tough for Ryan Mathews to have the 127-yard performance he had at Denver in Week 14.

This game will have to be in Rivers' hands if he is going to keep pace with Manning against a suspect Chargers secondary. As bad as the Chargers secondary has been, Denver's has been almost as porous (fourth-worst pass defense this season in terms of yards allowed). Rivers is going to have to handle the cold and wind and Denver, though, something Manning has already shown he can do.

Honorable Mention II: WR Demaryius Thomas

There is little chance the game won't come down whose passing game is the most productive, so if Manning isn't the biggest performer, Demaryius Thomas will be. In order for him to be MVP over Manning, though, Thomas is going to need 200 yards receiving, three touchdowns and have Decker, Welker and Julius Thomas nearly get shut out. Odds are real long on that. 

Odds Stats

Here are odds for whom will be the Divisional Playoffs passing leader, courtesy of Bovada, (www.Bovada.lv, Twitter: @BovadaLV).

QUARTERBACK	TEAM	ODDS
Peyton Manning	Denver	3-2
Drew Brees	New Orleans	3-1
Tom Brady	New England	6-1
Philip Rivers	San Diego	6-1
Andrew Luck	Indianapolis	6-1
Cam Newton	Carolina	12-1
Russell Wilson	Seattle	12-1
Colin Kaepernick	San Francisco	15-1

Here are odds for whom will be the Divisional Playoffs receiving leader, also courtesy of Bovada, (www.Bovada.lv, Twitter: @BovadaLV).

RECEIVER	TEAM	ODDS
Demaryius Thomas	Denver	4-1
Marques Colston	New Orleans	6-1
Jimmy Graham	New Orleans	6-1
T.Y. Hilton	Indianapolis	6-1
Julian Edelman	New England	6-1
Eric Decker	Denver	6-1
Michael Crabtree	San Francisco	7-1
Keenan Allen	San Diego	7-1
Anquan Boldin	San Francisco	10-1

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Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, joined Bleacher Report in August 2013. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.