The "What Ifs" of Duke Basketball: Ryan Kelly

Referring to incoming Duke freshman Ryan Kelly as a "what if" would have been appropriate a few weeks ago.

Gerald Henderson had yet to hire an agent and seal his status as an NBA rookie next season, and Duke was still in the mix for John Wall, the nation's top unsigned prospect. If either of those players were playing for Duke next year, Kelly's potential playing time would have been questionable.

Both Henderson and Wall would have been surefire starters, giving Duke enough depth in the backcourt to start three guards (coach Mike Krzyzewski's recent MO at Duke).  

Since Kelly is not a natural post player, unlike fellow commit Mason Plumlee, he would have been fighting with junior Kyle Singler and senior Lance Thomas for time at the power forward spot.

But enough of what "would" or "could" have been—Duke's roster next season is set.

The Blue Devils only have three guards in Nolan Smith, Elliot Williams, and Jon Scheyer. Even though all three spent significant portions of last season in the starting lineup (Scheyer averaged more minutes per game than any other Blue Devil), it's unlikely that all three will start next year since that would leave Duke with no reserve guards.

That means Duke will undoubtedly, and out of necessity, go with a bigger lineup next season.

Singler will likely need to spend significant minutes playing the small forward position next year, leaving more vacant minutes at the power forward position for the Blue Devils.

Enter Kelly.

At first glance, Kelly looks exactly like what Duke doesn't need—another scrawny post player. But looks can be deceiving.

Although he stands at a legitimate 6'10", Kelly is a versatile forward who is more likely to pull up for a three than post up.

While Duke has had tall shooters in recent years (Lee Melchioni and Taylor King come to mind), Kelly is much more than just a spot-up shooter.

He is an uncommonly good ball handler for a player of his size, and he can finish off the dribble and above the rim with ease. While Mason Plumlee is drawing comparisons to former Duke player Josh McRoberts, Kelly is more reminiscent of Blue Devil great Mike Dunleavy.

At the McDonald's All-American competition, Kelly not only won the three-point contest but also impressed scouts with his proficiency in nearly every fundamental aspect of the game.

Simply put, Kelly will not be asked to bang down low next season. Fans and analysts critiquing his build and post play seem to be forgetting he was not recruited to solve Duke's post problems.

What he will be asked to do is create mismatches and stretch defenses with his versatility and shooting ability (something Duke will be in need of with both Greg Paulus and Henderson gone), and he certainly has the skill set to do it.

Kelly may not be the star of next year's team, and he's certainly not a guaranteed starter, even though he's rated higher than the incoming Plumlee (Mason seems to be a likely starter due to the Blue Devils' post needs).

But one thing is certain—Kelly can play basketball. His skill set is versatile and dangerous, and he has been a high performer at the highest level of high school competition (he was Wall's AAU teammate).

Anyone writing off Kelly as an unlikely contributor next season is likely to be proven wrong come fall.