NHL Final 2009 Playoff Predictions

In my final installment of this three-part series, I will project each game of the Stanley Cup Finals (I originally had Pittsburgh over Vancouver in six) and predict all of the major awards.

In the first three rounds, I went 9-5 according to the previous three articles. However, based on my predictions for all four rounds prior to the start of the playoffs, in which three of my four original semi-finalists (San Jose, Vancouver, and Boston) did not even make it that far, I was 7-7. At least my winner, Pittsburgh, is still alive.

When entering the contest on NHL.com Thursday, I predicted Pittsburgh in six. However, as I looked further into the two teams, I have changed my mind.

Coming into the playoffs, one reason I did not pick Detroit to go beyond the second round was Chris Osgood. He played poorly all season, and thus Detroit's defence did, as well. You know the old adage: defence wins championships.

However, neither of those have turned out to be true.

Osgood has been outstanding, and not just against the offence-challenged Blue Jackets or mediocre offence of Anaheim. He shut down the tremendous Chicago offence that still is third in playoff scoring average despite Ozzie holding them to three or fewer goals in every regulation game.

He is the only semi-finalist goalie in the top five in save percentage or goals against average during the playoffs. Meanwhile, the top three teams in playoff scoring were in the finals, and the top two advanced...you have to score to win.

However, while Marc-Andre Fleury has been good, the fact that Ozzie has been better favours Detroit, and balance is even better than scoring. Add to that Detroit's superior experience, and I have to pick them.

Game One: Detroit 3, Pittsburgh 1.

Okay, I admit it (especially since some of you are astute enough to figure it out), this game just ended. But I swear I had Detroit winning this one at home (I would have figured at least two goals for Pittsburgh, and probably three). The Wings were challenged more by Chicago, and therefore should be sharper; they also had enough time between games to not be fatigued.

Game Two: Pittsburgh 4, Detroit 3

Ozzie's due for a mediocre game sometime, and Pittsburgh is the younger team, helping them with the short turn-around between games.

Game Three: Detroit 4, Pittsburgh 1

Here I predict that Ozzie bounces back and so do the skaters in front of him. Detroit knows how to do what it takes and knows they need the games earlier in the series to keep the young Penguins from gaining confidence.

Game Four: Pittsburgh 4, Detroit 3, OT

Pittsburgh is the more desperate team, and it shows. They have come up big offensively in big games all series long. In fact, they have done so since February, and can draw on their clutch goals in last year's finals against the Wings.

Game Five: Detroit 3, Pittsburgh 2

Detroit again responds, but this time on the defensive end, keeping control of the puck just enough to keep Pittsburgh off the board.

Game Six: Pittsburgh 4, Detroit 2

By now, the Pens just have more jump. Despite playing two more games over the course of the post-season, their youth and the fact that they had an extra day between the conference and Stanley Cup finals gives them fresher legs, and they control play.

Game Seven: Detroit 2, Pittsburgh 1

I am basically going to say Ozzie steals this one. Detroit is so savvy and deep that they are able to adjust their game to play shut-down defence and count on getting key goals once they see they cannot quite match Pittsburgh's pace.

Conn Smythe: Sidney Crosby

He will be the leader in goals and points for the post-season, and that will earn him only the third Conn Smythe ever to go to the runner-up because votes for Detroit players will be split between Johan Franzen and Chris Osgood.

Pearson/Hart: Alexander Ovechkin

I believe Evgeni Malkin should win one of these two because a centre has more responsibilities than a winger, Malkin led the league in assists (making the players around him better), and was brilliant defensively. However, Ovy has the highlight reel scores (and most goals in the league) and highlight reel hits to sway both media and players.

Selke: Pavel Datsyuk

Datsyuk will win this award for the second year in a row, partly on reputation. But he may not even be the best defensive forward on his own team, while Mike Richards led the league in short-handed goals, with as many or more than 17 teams in the league.

Norris: Mike Green

This award will go to Green for three reasons: Green led the league's defencemen in most offensive categories by a lot despite missing games, Nicklas Lidstrom has won it so many times, and his play has fallen off—he may only be the third best defenceman in the league now.

But the winner should be Zdeno Chara, who has raised his offensive game and is absolutely the best defender in the league. Unfortunately, defence is underrated by virtually everyone in the sport as they fixate on points, even though some of those come from dumping the puck in (i.e. points even I could get)—Claude Lemieux, possibly the least-skilled player in the league at his advanced age, got his only 2009 point that way.

Adams: Todd McLellan

There will be some justification for this: San Jose had the best regular season record without one finalist for any trophy, meaning it looks like the coach was the one making it all work. However, considering the Sharks' late-season slide (although playoffs do not count against them) and St. Louis' late-season rally to make the playoffs with a lot fewer stars, Andy Murray would be my choice.

Vezina: Tim Thomas

Perhaps Thomas will suffer from the same fate as Evgeni Nabokov last season, where the established player gets the award even though another is more deserving. However, Thomas was the best at nearly every goalie stat, and I hope his unorthodox and sometimes unnerving style does not count against him.

Calder: Steve Mason

This is basically a foregone conclusion even though 10 goalies had a better save percentage. Mason finished in second in GAA mostly because of the defensive style employed by coach Ken Hitchcock, and Kris Versteeg and Bobby Ryan deserve more consideration than I am sure they got. I would narrowly go with Mason, but I think this will actually be a landslide vote.

Lady Byng: who cares?

Why does anyone care about an award that runs counter to the physical game of hockey? I also will not pick who wins other awards based on sportsmanship, even though I do respect them—I am picking only the ones that apply to play on the ice.