Numbers Never Lie: NFL Playoff Predictions Through Week 14

Predicting the winners of the playoff games is an inexact science.

By no means can one specific stat show you who will win or how—and that's why we love to watch.

It's games like the one where we were introduced to Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch's full capabilities in a game where the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks knocked off the mighty New Orleans Saints in improbable fashion that leave us dumbfounded.

No game is for certain, but there are particular statistics that give us an idea of why certain things happen in the playoffs.

As a basis, I've looked at statistics from the last five playoff seasons to see developing trends that will help predict this year's games as they stand through 14 weeks.

The categories examined were head-to-head matchups of each team's total offense, total defense, turnover differential, third-down conversion offense, third-down conversion defense, penalties, offensive points per game, defensive points per game and passer rating.

For context, here's how each statistic ranked in order of importance in the last 5 years.

1. Third-down defense (teams win when they are ranked higher than their opponent in third-down defense 61.2% of the time)
2. QB passer rating (59.2%)
3. Defensive PPG (58.8%)
4. Total defense (57.7%)
5. Offensive PPG (54.5%)
6. Penalties (52.9%)
7. Total offense (50.9%)
8. Third-down offense (50%)
9. Turnover margin (50%)

One more statistic looked at was home-field advantage.

Out of 50 playoff games the last five years (excluding neutral Super Bowl games), the home team is 30-20 (60%). To account for the traditional three points added to the home team in point spreads, I have given 1.5 points to the home team and subtracted 1.5 points from the visiting team in my score predictions. "Elite" home teams like the Seahawks and Saints may be given a bigger advantage in my predictions.

Without further ado...

WILD CARD ROUND

(6) Baltimore Ravens at (3) Cincinnati Bengals

Previous regular season meeting: Bengals lost @ Ravens 20-17 on November 10.

Initial adjusted score (using the average of each team's offensive PPG versus their opponent's defensive PPG): 20.1 Ravens, 22.9 Bengals.

Adjusted score after home field advantage: 18.6 Ravens, 24.4 Bengals.

Of the statistics examined, Baltimore has a better third-down defense (32% vs. 36%), but Cincinnati leads in all other categories.

Despite leading in the most important category, the Ravens lead the Bengals by only a small margin in that category.

There is a far greater gap on the offensive side of the ball, where Baltimore ranks 29th in the league, worst of any team currently projected to make the playoffs.

Joe Flacco's 77.0 passer rating is also the worst, which does not bode well considering QB rating in the playoffs is the second most important statistic. Coupled with the Ravens' struggles to run the ball this year, this could be a very tough struggle against a very good Bengals defense on the road.

FINAL SCORE: Ravens 16, Bengals 24

(5) Kansas City Chiefs at (4) Indianapolis Colts

Previous regular season meeting: None.

Initial adjusted score: 25.4 Chiefs, 20.6 Colts.

Adjusted score after home field advantage: 22.1 Colts, 23.9 Chiefs

Of the statistics examined, the Colts rank better in third-down offense (37% vs. 35%) and are less penalized  (55 vs. 85) than the Kansas City Chiefs.

Indianapolis is a mostly middle-of-the-road team statistically with penalty yardage the only major advantage for their team.

Kansas City is first in the NFL in turnover differential and second in the league in third-down defense, which does not bode well for a Colts team that has a tendency to fall behind early in games.

Kansas City also dominates in defensive PPG, giving up more than a touchdown less per game than the Colts surrender.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Chiefs boast a better offense, ranking two spots ahead of the Colts and scoring more than two points per game more as well. Additionally, Andrew Luck ranks as the second-lowest quarterback according to passer rating of any quarterback projected to make the playoffs.

I predict the Chiefs defense to force some costly turnovers and give easy points to Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs offense.

FINAL SCORE: Colts 21, Chiefs 27

(6) San Francisco 49ers at (3) Philadelphia Eagles

Previous regular season meeting: None.

Initial adjusted score: 23.8 49ers, 21.1 Eagles.

Adjusted score after home field advantage: 22.3 49ers, 22.6 Eagles

Of the statistics examined, the Eagles rank better in total offense (3rd vs. 28th), turnover differential (+9 vs. +6), penalties (78 vs. 84), offensive PPG (25.7 vs. 24.3) and passer rating (120.0 vs. 87.0).

The 49ers rank better in total defense (4th vs. 30th), third-down defense (34% vs. 40%) and defensive PPG (16.5 vs. 23.2).

The 49ers hold the edge by a significant margin in the all-important third-down defense statistic, and both rank dead even at third-down offense at a tie for 15th in the league.

However, the Eagles hold the hottest quarterback in Nick Foles, who currently possesses a 120.0 passer rating, while Colin Kaepernick holds the lowest passer rating of the NFC playoff QBs at 87.0.

This will be a classic offense vs. defense matchup.

San Francisco holds three of the top four most important statistics in the playoffs, and for that I give them a very slight edge. Both teams can and will try to run the ball, but the more balanced team will win. Considering Philadelphia's poor defense (30th overall), I don't expect the home field advantage to hold up.

FINAL SCORE: 49ers 28, Eagles 26

(5) Carolina Panthers at (4) Detroit Lions

Previous regular season meeting: None.

Initial adjusted score: 23.8 Panthers, 20.6 Lions.

Adjusted score after home field advantage: 22.3 Panthers, 22.1 Lions

Of the statistics examined, the Panthers rank better in total defense (2nd vs. 17th), turnover differential (+10 vs. -10), third-down offense (46% vs. 44%, penalties (67 vs. 89) and defensive PPG (14.5 vs. 24.7).

The Lions rank better in total offense (2nd vs. 26th), third-down defense (30% vs. 34%), offensive PPG (26.6 vs. 22.9) and passer rating (88.2 vs. 87.9).

Calvin Johnson is the best receiver in the game, but he will have a tough going against a defense only surrendering two touchdowns per game.

Carolina struggles to score if they cannot run the ball and control the line of scrimmage.

Luckily for them, the Lions are below average on defense and susceptible to big gains. The only advantage held defensively by the Lions is the all-important third-down defense, but by only a small margin as the Panthers are only giving up 4% more third-down conversions.

The big key in what would otherwise be a very tight game is the major turnover differential between the two teams.

While the playoff statistics suggest this is not a hugely important stat, this 20-turnover difference is far greater than many of the other playoff matchups and cannot be ignored. With the Lions giving the ball away so much, it stands to tip the scales in a superior defense's favor, giving Cam Newton and Co. great field position and opportunity to score points.

I expect the Panthers to be just around their season average in this one, which will be enough to win as their suffocating defense chokes out the Lions.

FINAL SCORE: Panthers 23, Lions 20

These are my predictions for the wild-card playoff games. Check back for the link to my division round predictions next.