UFC on Fox 9: Demetrious Johnson vs. Joseph Benavidez Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Only two successful title defenses into his championship reign, UFC flyweight titleholder Demetrious Johnson is already looking at a rematch with Joseph Benavidez, whom he defeated to become the first 125-pound king.
Since beating Benavidez in a close decision in September 2012, Johnson has held onto his strap by beating John Dodson and John Moraga. Currently sitting at No. 7 in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings, Johnson will try to close in on the Top Five by beating Benavidez again at UFC on Fox 9 on Saturday.
If he'd campaigned hard enough, Benavidez might have convinced the UFC to give him this rematch much earlier. However, he wanted to be sure he'd made the improvements necessary to beat Johnson before a second meeting with the champion.
With wins over Ian McCall, Darren Uyenoyama and Jussier Formiga since his loss to Johnson, Benavidez has more than earned another shot at a UFC championship.
As Johnson and Benavidez get set to meet again, here is a closer look at how the elite flyweights match up in all areas.
Striking: Johnson Offense vs. Benavidez Defense
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When he competed at 135 pounds, Demetrious Johnson utilized his speed to make up for the size disadvantage he faced against most opponents. Not only has he maintained his speed despite cutting an extra 10 pounds, but he still appears to be the fastest fighter in the flyweight division.
That speed caused problems for Joseph Benavidez in his first meeting with Johnson. "Mighty Mouse" darted in and out on Benavidez when striking, outlanding the Team Alpha Male fighter by a margin of 33 significant strikes.
Landing 51 percent of his strikes thrown, Johnson is significantly more accurate than any other fighter that Benavidez has met at 125 pounds. Yasuhiro Urushitani, who landed 40 percent of his strikes inside the Octagon, is the second most accurate flyweight striker Benavidez has seen.
With no knockout victories inside the Octagon, Johnson isn't going to stop Benavidez with strikes, but his pace and precision make him hard to beat over five rounds.
Striking: Benavidez Offense vs. Johnson Defense
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With back-to-back knockout wins, Joseph Benavidez again threatens Demetrious Johnson with power.
Benavidez hurt Johnson in the fourth round of their first meeting, but he was unable to finish and had trouble landing many more big shots. Now working with Duane Ludwig, who has made a clear impact on the striking technique of Team Alpha Male fighters, Benavidez may be able to touch "Mighty Mouse" more often.
In his first bout with Johnson, Benavidez managed to land only 18 percent of his strikes. Since teaming up with Ludwig, he has scored with no fewer than 31 percent of his strikes over three appearances.
As the champ has showed over his three flyweight title fights, power alone will not be enough to dethrone him. However, with improving accuracy, Benavidez may be able to hit Johnson with enough power shots to become the first fighter to stop the 125-pound champ.
Takedowns: Johnson Offense vs. Benavidez Defense
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Demetrious Johnson's speed would not be nearly as great an asset were he one-dimensional. However, in addition to his accurate striking, "Mighty Mouse" might be the best wrestler in the flyweight division.
In his three 125-pound title fights, he has amassed 22 takedowns. The 24 takedowns that he has scored in the flyweight division are nine more than any other 125-pounder.
Although the focus at Team Alpha Male has been on improving striking, Benavidez was also taken down five times in his first bout with Johnson. "Mighty Mouse" didn't attempt a takedown until the fourth round either, so his late success in that first meeting could mean even more wrestling this time around.
Unless he's also filled the gaps in his takedown defense, Benavidez may not have enough opportunities to showcase the advances he's made with his stand-up.
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Takedowns: Benavidez Offense vs. Johnson Defense
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One would think Joseph Benavidez would have little problems with wrestling at 125 pounds after years of facing larger opponents in the bantamweight division. However, he has scored only three takedowns in five flyweight fights, while he's been taken down six times.
Despite training with a team of excellent wrestlers, he has never developed great MMA takedowns. With a 22 percent takedown success rate in 22 fights, Benavidez has not likely made drastic improvements in his wrestling since his last meeting with Johnson.
He attempted seven takedowns on Johnson in their initial clash. Though they were scattered throughout different situations, none of them was successful.
He may find a way to drag Johnson down once or twice at UFC on Fox 9, but "Mighty Mouse" proved at UFC 152 that he won't be easy to take down with regularity.
Grappling: Johnson Top vs. Benavidez Bottom
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In his most recent fight against John Moraga, Demetrious Johnson reminded the flyweight division about his submission ability.
Johnson's first seven UFC fights went to decisions. As "Mighty Mouse" headed into the fifth round with Moraga, it appeared his decision streak would continue to eight straight fights. However, with less than two minutes remaining, Johnson locked up an armbar for his first submission win inside the Octagon.
Having never been submitted, Benavidez isn't likely to allow Johnson to start a streak of stoppage wins now. However, Johnson's recent win over Moraga showed he may be willing to take more chances on the ground.
Considering he's never been submitted, more risk should equal more reward for Johnson on the canvas. He may not be able to tap out Benavidez, but doing damage with ground-and-pound and threatening with submissions could make a big difference on the scorecards.
Grappling: Benavidez Top vs. Johnson Bottom
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Like most Team Alpha Male members, Joseph Benavidez is as dangerous as anyone on the ground.
With eight submission wins, he is more capable than just about any flyweight of becoming the first to submit Demetrious Johnson. However, most of Benavidez's submission victories have come from the bottom or off guillotine chokes in countering takedowns.
He may be equally capable of locking up submissions from the top position. However, because his offensive wrestling has been lacking, he has not put himself in position to attempt many submissions from the top during his career.
If he does find a way to take Johnson down, Benavidez has to win rounds with his solid top control and ground-and-pound. Against Johnson, though, it is unlikely he will find himself on top often.
Intangibles
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Since they are both seasoned veterans with multiple title fights under their belts, headlining UFC on Fox 9 won't be overwhelming for Demetrious Johnson and Joseph Benavidez.
As is the case with most flyweights, conditioning isn't likely to be an issue in this matchup either. Both men have experience going five rounds and should have no problem doing so on Saturday.
Johnson last fought in July, and Benavidez was in the Octagon in September. While they haven't been overly active, rust shouldn't come into play.
Prediction
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Plenty of rematches have played out drastically different than the original meetings. However, there's not usually much reason to predict a dissimilar outcome in the sequel.
Predicting a replay of the first bout is especially logical when the rematch occurs only a short time later. That could be considered the case in this matchup, as Johnson defeated Benavidez 15 months and only two fights ago.
Now, Johnson was hardly dominant in his first meeting with Benavidez, needing a split-decision nod to claim the flyweight strap. However, Johnson proved better in all areas, outstriking and outwrestling Benavidez throughout most of five rounds.
While Benavidez is likely to keep it close again, it's tough to say whether he's improved enough to make up for his shortcomings against Johnson last time around. If money is on the line, it's safe to say he hasn't.
Prediction
Johnson defeats Benavidez by unanimous decision.
Statistics via UFC.com.
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