10 Early Questions for the 2014 NASCAR Season
With the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup season now in the books, all eyes are focused on 2014.
The start of a new season always sparks a lot of questions. Which drivers can contend for the championship? Will there be any surprise winners? Which drivers are most likely to suffer a letdown year?
These are all questions that race fans wonder as the season gets underway, and these are the ones that I will try and answer.
In the slides ahead, I will take a look at 10 questions that relate to the upcoming 2014 NASCAR season. Aside from answering some general inquiries, I will also break out the crystal ball and solve next year's biggest mystery: who will win the series championship.
Can Anyone Stop Jimmie Johnson?
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The biggest question going into 2014 is if anyone can stop Jimmie Johnson. In 2013, Johnson earned his sixth Sprint Cup Series championship and moved within one of tying Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt for the most all time.
Johnson waged battle with Matt Kenseth for much of the 2013 season. After starting the Chase as the top two seeds, the duo went blow for blow throughout the entire postseason. Following a valiant effort, Kenseth finished the year 19 points behind.
Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. all had strong playoff performances, and each is a potential challenger for Johnson's throne.
While the sport has plenty of drivers with enough talent to be called champions, it has been dominated by just one driver since 2006.
That is by no means a guarantee that Johnson will once again win the title in 2014, but if recent history is any indication, then the answer to whether or not anyone can stop him is a resounding no.
Which Driver on a New Team Will Have the Most Success?
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Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman and Martin Truex Jr. are all big-name drivers who will be racing for new teams in 2014.
Harvick and Busch move over to Stewart-Haas Racing, while Newman goes to Richard Childress Racing. And Truex replaces Busch at Furniture Row Racing.
Three of those four drivers qualified for the Chase in 2013, while Truex missed out following the scandal at Richmond involving his Michael Waltrip Racing team.
Harvick goes into the new year with the most momentum. He ended the year with eight top-10 finishes during the Chase and was a two-time winner in the Chase. He mathematically had a chance of winning the championship entering the season finale, ultimately finishing the season third in the standings.
All signs seem to point to Harvick as being the driver who finds the most success in his new home.
Is Dale Earnhardt Jr. a Legitimate Title Contender?
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If not for a blown engine in the first race of the Chase at Chicagoland Speedway, Dale Earnhardt Jr. would have been right in the thick of the championship fight throughout the entirety of the postseason.
The 353 points that Earnhardt scored during the season's final nine races were bested only by the 367 obtained by series champion Jimmie Johnson.
Following two abysmal seasons in 2009 and 2010, Earnhardt has now qualified for the postseason in each of the last three years. The last two, in particular, have been exceptionally strong for the sport's most popular driver.
Earnhardt has posted 20 and 22 top-10 finishes, respectively, in the last two seasons and scored 10 top-fives in both seasons.
The only thing derailing his championship hopes year after year is his inability to get to Victory Lane. Since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2008, Earnhardt has won just two races.
If he can find a way to win a race or two in 2014, then yes, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a legitimate championship contender.
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What Should We Expect from Tony Stewart?
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Tony Stewart missed the last 15 races of the 2013 season after suffering a broken leg in a sprint car race in early August. All indications are that the three-time Sprint Cup Series champion will be ready for the season's first race, the Daytona 500, in February.
After he missed the majority of the second half of the season, what can we realistically expect from Stewart?
Notoriously known as a slow starter, it is likely that Stewart will struggle in the early going. It will take some time for him to readjust to life in the cockpit of a race car.
Even in 2013, a season he entered completely healthy, Stewart failed to impress early on. He scored just two top-10s in the first 12 events of the season before winning at Dover.
Prior to his injury, Stewart was beginning to turn his season around. He scored top-10s in five of his last eight races and had worked his way back to 11th in the standings
With all of the talent he possesses, expect Stewart to qualify for the Chase next year, but do not be surprised if his 2014 season starts the same way 2013 did.
Can Kyle Busch Finally Contend for a Series Championship?
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If Kyle Busch has one true nemesis in NASCAR, it is the Chase for the Championship. For some inexplicable reason, the last 10 races of the season have always been a thorn in the younger Busch's side.
Since joining the Sprint Cup Series on a full-time basis in 2005, he has competed in 89 playoff races. He has managed to score just one win during that span, and that lone victory came in his rookie season when he was not a Chase competitor.
Overall, the 2013 season was a success for Busch. He was a four-time winner, with all four victories coming during the regular season, and he qualified for the Chase as the second seed.
Perhaps the most important thing that he accomplished this past season was the quality of starts he turned in during the playoffs. No, Busch did not score a win during the Chase, making it the eighth straight year he failed to win a Chase race, but he did manage to finish in the top 10 seven times, and he never fell below fifth in the standings.
He ultimately ended the year in fourth place.
Sooner or later, one would think that Busch will finally conquer his Chase demons and become a true championship contender. 2014 will be that season.
Which 2013 Non-Chase Driver(s) Will Qualify for the 2014 Postseason?
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Each year, there are at least one or two drivers that qualify for the Chase that failed to do so in the previous year.
Carl Edwards, Ryan Newman, Joey Logano and the Busch brothers all made the playoffs in 2013 after missing the cut during the 2012 season.
In 2014, Brad Keselowski and Jamie McMurray will both be championship contenders after not having that opportunity this past season.
Keselowski entered the season as the defending series champion, so his omission from the postseason was a huge shock. He posted only four top-10s during the last 18 races of the regular season and fell from third to 15th in the standings.
Keselowski rebounded by finishing 11th or better in seven of the last 10 races, including scoring his lone victory of the season.
McMurray scored his first win in over three years during the 2013 season and had his best overall season since 2010.
Look for both drivers to carry their momentum into the new year and parlay it into Chase berths later in the season.
Can Denny Hamlin Rebound from a Terrible Year?
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There was no driver happier to see the 2013 season come to an end than Denny Hamlin. Very little went right for a competitor who was expected to contend for the championship.
The season started out like any other for Hamlin. Through four races, he was sixth in the standings, and in the fifth event of the year, he was fighting for the race win as the white flag waved.
As Hamlin and Joey Logano battled side by side for the win at Fontana, the duo made contact. Hamlin went crashing violently into the inside wall. The impact caused him to sustain a back injury that kept him out of action for the next four events.
Upon his return to the No. 11 Toyota, Hamlin was never able to get his season back on track.
Overall, he scored just eight top-10s, four top-fives and led 363 laps. All were career lows. Even without missing the four races, Hamlin's top-10 total would have been the lowest of his career. His average finish of 21st was a full five positions worse than his previous low.
There is no way that 2014 will be anywhere near as bad for Hamlin. He will not only contend for more race wins, but expect him to be in the hunt for a Chase spot.
Will Matt Kenseth Be Able to Bounce Back After Missing out on the Sprint Cup?
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Matt Kenseth had a career year in 2013. His seven wins were a personal best, and he either tied or set new highs in both poles and laps led.
All that was missing was the Sprint Cup championship.
After entering the postseason as the top seed, Kenseth maintained a position in the top two in the standings throughout the duration of the playoffs. He ultimately finished second, 19 points behind eventual champion Johnson.
It will be incredibly difficult for Kenseth to repeat his performance of this past year. Since 2004, 22 drivers have won at least five races in one season. Only four of them have followed up by winning at least four events the next year.
Kenseth will surely find Victory Lane at least once or twice in the new season, but seven seems like it may be out of reach. A top-10 points finish will be a good finish following a near championship win in 2013.
Will 2014 Provide Any Surprise Winners?
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One of the most exciting moments of any NASCAR season is when a race winner is a driver that one might not usually expect to end up in Victory Lane.
This season, David Ragan pulled off the biggest upset of the year when he scored the win at Talladega. Martin Truex Jr. and Jamie McMurray also scored wins that could have been considered surprises.
In recent years, Trevor Bayne, Regan Smith and Paul Menard have all pulled off wins that no one could have seen coming.
It seems inevitable that at least one race per year will be won by a proverbial underdog. 2014 will surely be no different.
Aric Almirola, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Kyle Larson are all potential first-time winners, and if recent history is any indication, at least one of them can expect their breakthrough performance to happen in 2014.
Who Will Win the Series Championship?
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Jimmie Johnson is always the safe bet when trying to predict the next Sprint Cup Series champion. He has won the title six times in eight seasons, and his 24 Chase wins are more than double of any other competitor.
While Johnson is clearly the class of the field when it comes to the Chase, sooner or later Kyle Busch has to have a breakthrough performance.
Busch's Chase struggles are well documented, and his lack of playoff wins are mind[boggling. In six postseason appearances, he has finished in the top five in points just twice. His fourth-place finish in 2013 was a career best.
Busch is far too talented a driver to continuously fail in the postseason. Sooner rather than later, he is due to break out in a big way.
Look for 2014 to be his year. Maybe it is crazy to bet against Johnson when it comes to winning the Sprint Cup, but he cannot win every year, and at some point, Busch will no doubt win one of his own.
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