15 Updated Predictions for MLB's Offseason Pitching Market
A pair of impact position players switched teams this week when the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers swapped Prince Fielder and Ian Kinsler to shake up their prospective lineups. Starting pitchers Tim Hudson, Josh Johnson and Jason Vargas found new homes in recent days while today's multi-player trade sending David Freese to the Los Angeles Angels and Peter Bourjos to the St. Louis Cardinals also made the early part of the offseason a little more interesting.
So what's next?
Considering that pitching wins championships and there are several free-agent pitchers available, as well as some pretty big names being floated in trade rumors, it's likely that we'll start seeing some action very soon in that area. One big name coming off the board could set off a domino effect, so be ready for things to happen quickly once it starts.
Here are my latest predictions for 15 pitchers that are likely to be in new uniforms next season.
Bronson Arroyo, SP
1 of 15
In an MLB Network Radio interview on Sirius XM, Bronson Arroyo mentioned the Angels, Dodgers, Twins, Phillies and Giants as teams whom he thinks have expressed interest in his services.
While the Twins could offer him a spot in the front of a rotation, the 36-year-old Arroyo could be more interested in signing with a team that has the best chance to win right away. Jim Bowden of SiriusXM reports that even the Giants, who would slot Arroyo in as their fifth starter, are showing interest after re-signing Tim Lincecum and signing veteran Tim Hudson earlier in the week.
While the Angels don't appear to be in great shape, they could be only a few pieces and a healthy year from Albert Pujols away from returning to contention.
The Angels wouldn't give lefty Jason Vargas, who bolted for Kansas City, a four-year deal to re-sign, but they probably would've gone three years, which is what Arroyo would require to sign on as the team's No. 3 starter behind Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson.
Prediction: Arroyo signs a three-year, $30 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels.
Grant Balfour, RP
2 of 15
The Rockies, Tigers, Angels, Yankees and Rays have all expressed interest in free agent Grant Balfour, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, although the Rockies could be out after signing LaTroy Hawkins to be their closer. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported today that the Mariners also have interest.
While the Angels would be better served utilizing any of their financial resources on starting pitching with Ernesto Frieri already in place and the Rays hardly the team that would win a bidding war with any team, the Tigers and Yankees have to be the favorites.
Balfour's competition at the top of the free-agent market for closers is Joe Nathan and Brian Wilson, two pitchers who have been linked to the Tigers early in the offseason. It's likely that two of the three will end up in Detroit and New York.
The odd man out, in my opinion, will be the least experienced closer of the group. That would be the 35-year-old Balfour, who has converted 62 of his 72 career saves in the past two seasons.
Prediction: Balfour signs a two-year, $22 million deal with the Seattle Mariners.
David Price, SP
3 of 15
The Tampa Bay Rays are going to be satisfied with the end result, regardless of whether their ace lefty David Price returns of another season or is traded elsewhere.
That's because they're not trading him unless a team steps up and makes them an offer they can't refuse. And there really aren't many teams who have what it takes.
After a disappointing 2013 season, the Nationals could be that team that is willing to pay the price. They might be tempted to acquire an elite starting pitcher to team with Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez at the top of their rotation.
Prediction: The Rays trade Price to the Washington Nationals for a package of players headlined by top pitching prospects A.J. Cole and Lucas Giolito.
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Bartolo Colon, SP
4 of 15
After a stellar 2013 season, Bartolo Colon is hoping to land a two-year deal this offseason, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.
While this seems like risky business to give Colon what would likely be $8-12 million per season for his ages 41-42 seasons, his 36-25 record, 3.32 ERA, 1.6 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 from 2011-2013 give him plenty of leverage in his pursuit of a multiyear deal.
In the end, he'll find that teams are more comfortable giving him more money on a one-year deal, rather than, let's say, a two-year, $16 million deal.
Prediction: Colon signs a one-year, $12 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Felix Doubront, SP
5 of 15
An ideal move for the Boston Red Sox, in their likely quest to trade one of their six starting pitchers, is to move Ryan Dempster or Jake Peavy, who are due $13.25 million and $14 million, respectively, in 2014 before hitting free agency after the season.
But they'll find that teams value the younger and much more inexpensive pitcher with several years of club control. That would be 26-year-old lefty Felix Doubront, who went 11-6 with a 4.32 ERA in 2013 and isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2017 season.
Prediction: Red Sox trade Felix Doubront to the New York Mets for two mid-level prospects.
Doug Fister, SP
6 of 15
With the expectation that Drew Smyly will be in their 2014 rotation, the Detroit Tigers are gauging interest in Doug Fister, Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer, according to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports.
With Porcello not expected to bring back much, due to his high salary and back-of-the-rotation profile, and Scherzer unlikely to be dealt because the Tigers probably aren't all that interested in giving up their best pitcher from 2013 in a "win now" season, it's Fister who is most likely on his way out.
For two years of Fister at an affordable rate—he made $4 million in his first season of arbitration eligibility—several teams will be interested in the 29-year-old right-hander. Any of those teams that can offer a good third baseman to take over for Miguel Cabrera, who is shifting to first base after the Prince Fielder trade, could be in the mix.
Prediction: The Tigers trade Fister to the Los Angeles Angels for third baseman David Freese.
Remember that the Angels wanted to trade a bat for pitching, not a third baseman. It does fill a need, but I'm guessing they'd love to have Fister in their rotation for the next two seasons.
Matt Garza, SP
7 of 15
In line for a deal in the neighborhood of the five-year, $88 million contract that Anibal Sanchez inked last offseason, Matt Garza's options are likely limited to the Yankees, Dodgers and Rangers, while the Twins are expected to be aggressive in their pursuit of starting pitching this offseason.
According to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN, the 29-year-old Garza is open to a return to Minnesota, where he began his career with a 4.47 ERA in 133 innings from 2006-2007. The Twins have mutual interest and have already spoken to his agent.
The chance to sign with a contender, though, closer to his hometown of Fresno, Calif., will end all chances of a possible Minnesota reunion.
Prediction: Garza will sign a five-year, $90 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Dan Haren, SP
8 of 15
It's no surprise that Dan Haren, a Southern California native, has been in talks with the Los Angeles Dodgers, according to Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles, and the San Francisco Giants, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. He's expressed an interest in returning to the West Coast, where he pitched with the Angels from 2010-2012.
But would he turn down a more lucrative deal from the Orioles or Yankees in order to be closer to his wife and kids, who live in Southern California? After admitting that it was difficult being so far away from home while pitching with the Nationals, and the lucrative amount of money he's already made throughout his career, I'm guessing the answer would be "no doubt."
Prediction: Haren signs a three-year, $39 million deal with the San Francisco Giants.
Ubaldo Jimenez, SP
9 of 15
After returning to dominant form after struggling for the better part of 2011 and 2012, Ubaldo Jimenez went from a potential buy-low, high-reward pickup to a pitcher who will get a big-money deal that will be a huge risk for whichever team signs him.
The potential reward is still great if the soon-to-be 30-year-old can continue pitching as he did in 2013, when he posted a 3.30 ERA with 9.6 K/9. But as unpredictable as baseball can be, pitchers rarely go from No. 1 starters to one of the worst in baseball for a year-and-a-half and then back.
There's always a strong possibility that Jimenez reverts back to the bad version of himself, which is why teams with tighter payrolls can't risk throwing so much money at him.
Prediction: Jimenez signs a four-year, $64 million deal with the New York Yankees.
Hiroki Kuroda, SP
10 of 15
If Hiroki Kuroda decides that he wants to continue his major league playing career, more than a handful of teams would line up to meet his likely one-year, $15-17 million price tag.
In all likelihood, the 38-year-old will wait things out before making his decision. Teams that may not be intrigued now could be later on, depending on how their offseason goes.
The Yankees are seeking two starting pitchers and could do everything in their power to bring back Kuroda if they are outbid in the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes.
Prediction: Kuroda signs a one-year, $16 million deal with the Seattle Mariners.
Joe Nathan, RP
11 of 15
Joe Nathan turned 39 years old today, and he could still very well be one of the top three closers in the game. He's in line for a two- or three-year deal, and most closer-seeking teams in baseball will at least ask his agent how much it will cost to sign the six-time All-Star.
Prediction: Nathan signs a two-year, $28 million deal with the New York Yankees.
Replacing Mariano Rivera, the greatest closer of all time, is no small task. This is why the Yankees won't hand the job over to the unproven David Robertson or take a chance on any other free agent to step in and perform under immense pressure. Nathan is the best man for the job and the Yankees will do everything they can to bring him in as Rivera's successor.
Ricky Nolasco, SP
12 of 15
Ricky Nolasco and his agent are doing their best to take advantage of the impressive 12-start run after he was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers in which he posted a 2.07 ERA with 17 walks and 62 strikeouts in 74 innings pitched.
Forget that he has a well-earned reputation as a solid yet unspectacular starter who profiles better at the back of a rotation. The soon-to-be 31-year-old is reportedly seeking a four-year deal for close to $60 million, according to Mike Axisa of CBS Sports.
Prior to his stint with the Dodgers, a three-year, $24 million deal would have seemed excessive. As things stand, though, Nolasco will get more than Jason Vargas' four-year, $32 million deal and could end up getting much more from a pitching-starved team.
Prediction: Nolasco signs a four-year, $44 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Ervin Santana, SP
13 of 15
Free agent Ervin Santana is seeking a five-year, $112 million contract, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, although the Yankees' lack of interest—they don't feel he'd be a strong fit in New York, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports—could hurt his chances.
Coming off of a terrific 2013 season and without a legitimate No. 1 starter on the free-agent market, Santana's asking price isn't that much of a stretch. But it's going to take a serious leap of faith for a team to give him a nine-figure contract.
Prediction: Santana signs five-year, $100 million contract with the Minnesota Twins.
Masahiro Tanaka, SP
14 of 15
Teams in desperate need for a front-line starting pitcher will have to wait for Masahiro Tanaka because talks on a new posting system have delayed the bidding, which is still expected to take place before the end of December.
This could force teams to be more aggressive on the free-agent market. Waiting for Tanaka and then falling short on a bid could leave a team in a vulnerable state with very little options remaining.
The most patient teams, therefore, could have the best chance at landing him. Or at least the one who will be busy filling several other needs, including one of two in the rotation, before it places an aggressive bid on the 25-year-old right-hander.
Prediction: Tanaka signs a six-year, $72 million deal with the New York Yankees, who also spend $75 million to win the bid for his negotiation rights.
Brian Wilson, RP
15 of 15
After returning from Tommy John surgery late in the season, Brian Wilson was terrific in a setup role for the Los Angeles Dodgers. It's unlikely he'll be a setup man again anytime soon, though.
Although he says he'd return to the Dodgers in the same role as long as they pay him like a closer, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, it's unlikely that the Dodgers will pay him more than what other teams would that are seeking his services as a closer.
The Tigers are interested, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN, as well as the Mariners, according to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports. His refusal to shave his beard, however, takes him out of the mix to be the Yankees' next closer, according to Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger.
Prediction: Wilson signs a two-year, $23 million deal with the Detroit Tigers.
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