Analyzing the Pros and Cons of a Potential Free Wrestlemania on the WWE Network

As we noted earlier in the week, the WWE Network looks to be launching pretty soon.  While WWE insists no launch date has been set, various signs point to it starting in February:

• WWE Classics on Demand folds on January 31st.
• PWInsider.com has a source insisting it launches February 24th, the day after Elimination Chamber.
• A few days ago, Matthew Singerman was hired to run the network after little news of major hires for the project for well over a year.
• If they're launching in 2014 as the current public projections, WrestleMania season/the first quarter is by far the best time to do it.

Meanwhile, in the latest edition of Dave Meltzer's Wrestling Observer Newsletter (F4WOnline.com subscribers-only link, h/t WrestlingInc.com), another rumored idea for the network was floated: WrestleMania XXX could be made available "for free" to network subscribers.

According to Meltzer's source for the story, the reasoning goes something like this: If you use WrestleMania to launch the network, you'll get a huge influx of subscribers initially.  Being a subscription channel, customers will enjoy the other programming (including the other monthly pay-per-view events) enough that they won't bother to cancel their subscriptions or won't consider it in the first place.

Since we can expect at least 600,000 households in the United States to buy WrestleMania XXX at full price (this year was $60 standard definition/$70 HD), at least twice as many would subscribe to the network for anywhere from $10 to $15 to get WrestleMania in HD "for free."  The first month would be huge.  From there, if you push that fans will keep the network since they'll be getting every PPV (barring subsequent WrestleManias) as part of the subscription, it costs the same as cherry picking three of the best shows of the year.

To be clear, this is just an idea, and while it's a huge risk, since WrestleMania season is the best time to launch the network, it makes perfect sense to discuss it.  It's fairly uncharted territory, though, and the closest point of comparison, like the fluctuation of HBO and Showtime subscriptions around seasons of their original programming, isn't publicly available information.  Even if we did have those numbers, it would still be hard to gauge because HBO and Showtime are bundled into a larger package much of the time nowadays.

Personally, I think it could work, but more in the sense that it's an all or nothing proposition.  If it works, WrestleMania and the quarter would likely lose money, but it would pay off throughout the rest of the year.  If it doesn't work, WWE loses a lot of money.

If the WWE Network gets full clearance across all American cable and satellite companies, then I don't see a way in which the first phase of the plan doesn't work.  Fans will buy the network in droves to get WrestleMania at a discount if the choice is available.  Keeping them there probably depends on how WWE markets the network: They need to stress that you'll be getting almost every PPV for the price of three of them now AND get a ton of additional programming.

I would think they're already doing this, but determining how likely fans are to subscribe just for WrestleMania via some good, focused polling.  I stress "good" because we're less than a year removed from a commissioned poll that led to WWE claiming that including lapsed fans, 47 million household in the United States have WWE fans in them.  Done well, it's the only thing that keeps a "free WrestleMania" plan from being a total all or nothing gamble.

That's all on the consumer end.  On the back end, it gets more complicated.  What will the PPV distributors (TVN and InDemand) and cable/satellite companies think of losing out on WrestleMania?  Especially since they'd likely be mobbed by subscribers calling to ask them to carry the WWE Network if WrestleMania is exclusive to it, and fans could threaten to switch to satellite or fiber optic services if they carry the network and the option is available in a given area.

I'm honestly not sure what the right move is: While initially I thought it was crazy, there's enough potential for it to work that it could theoretically pay off.  It's a huge, huge risk no matter how you slice it, but it's also the only way to try to guarantee the network starts strong.

What does everyone else think?  Is it a risk worth taking?  What do you think would happen based on your own habits with subscription services?  Let us know in the comments.

David Bixenspan has been Bleacher Report's WWE Team Leader and a contracted columnist since 2011. You can follow him on Twitter @davidbix and check out his wrestling podcasts at LLTPod.com.

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