UNC Basketball: What to Expect from Each Tar Heels Freshman in 2013-14

It has certainly been a struggle early on in the Tar Heels season. An unexpectedly competitive battle with Holy Cross was followed up by an upset loss to Belmont. North Carolina sits at 2-1 with there still being no timetable for the returns of P.J. Hairston and Leslie McDonald.

Certainly Coach Roy Williams and fans will be expecting even more from the team's two best players: James Michael McAdoo and Marcus Paige. However, it may come down to one (or all) of the freshmen stepping up their game and becoming a key cog on this roster.

The first game of the year, everyone was thrown out there for playing time. Since then, the freshmen's minutes have been cut back considerably, as expected. Now, as December approaches, there must be some level of ceiling, floor and most likely outcome set in place for each of these freshman Heels.

Nate Britt

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Nate Britt, point guard, 5'11" and 165 pounds

Season Stats: three games, 24 MPG, 2.7 PTS, 2.0 AST, 2.0 STL, 1.7 TO, 27.3% FGP

While the point totals and shooting percentage are disappointing, they are not a surprise. A freshman point guard trying to run an offense like North Carolina's is going to struggle to find his spots to score. 

It is also positive to see he's been active on the defensive end, having already nabbed six steals in the three games. The other thing to feel confident about is Britt is managing to limit mistakes. Although a 2:1.7 assist-to-turnover ratio wouldn't be ideal for the likes of Shabazz Napier, for Nate it is a solid start and shows he can find open teammates while not forcing the ball where it doesn't belong.

Really the most alarming piece of Britt's stat line thus far this season are his minutes-per-game figures. He has yet to stay on the court for more than 29 minutes in any of the three games and only the Belmont game had him in any kind of foul trouble. 

With Marcus Paige already on this roster and entrenched as a superb point guard, it would make sense to limit Britt's usage. But with Paige being forced to take over shooting guard duties and the team needing him to score and shoot a lot more than expected, Britt should be the one filling in at point. 

I think we are already at Britt's floor. It won't get any worse than him being sparingly used and producing next to nothing as far as buckets go. 

A reasonable expectation would see Britt pushing 30 minutes per game, scoring a couple field goals each time out and steadying his assist-to-turnover ratio even with the increased playing time.

In the best-case scenario for Britt this season, the young PG becomes a reliable shooter when open, scoring close to double figures, and really improves his assist numbers to around 5-6 per ballgame, allowing Roy Williams to use him full-time at point and Paige full-time at the 2-guard.

Isaiah Hicks

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Isaiah Hicks, power forward, 6'8" and 220 pounds

Season Stats: 7.7 MPG

The minutes played are the only piece of relevant information in regards to Isaiah Hicks so far this season. He has only been on the floor for a total of 23 minutes in the three games combined. He just doesn't quite know what he's doing out there yet and needs a lot more time to develop.

There is nothing wrong with this. Not every freshman coming in is Julius Randle or Aaron Gordon. However, Hicks is becoming reminiscent of Brice Johnson and Joel James last year in that he has talent but never gets the hang of things in time to contribute anything meaningful to the Tar Heels.

As with Britt, the worst-case scenario is present tense. He is simply a non-factor at this juncture.

Reasonable projections put him in line with what Johnson and James did as freshmen. They each played around 300 total minutes (Johnson more, James a little less), call it 10-12 minutes per game but seeing the court every time out. With that consistent playing time, Hicks would take three or four shots per game and grab a similar amount of boards.

In the best-case scenario for Hicks and UNC, he becomes a reliable inside defender and athlete. As a freshman, no one expects him to develop Kevin McHale post moves but he becomes a good finisher and can clean up baskets around the glass.

Also, as a reliable post defender, Roy Williams could consistently slot him next to James Michael McAdoo and feel comfortable with the pairing. Even if he doesn't approach double-double production, the threat is there each game as Hicks sees the most playing time out of any of the "other" bigs (other being everyone besides McAdoo).

Kennedy Meeks

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Kennedy Meeks, power forward, 6'9" and 290 pounds

Season Stats: 12.7 MPG, 6.7 PTS, 5.7 REB, 53.8% FGP, 85.7% FTP

Kennedy Meeks has been amazingly productive so far in 2013. It could be argued that he has been North Carolina's most efficient player. In just 38 total minutes, Meeks is second on the team in defensive rebounding and fifth in points scored.

The scoring has been strictly thanks to selectivity. Kennedy has hit over half his attempts from the field and been one of the Heels' few reliable shooters from the free-throw line. 

And while the scoring is perhaps thanks to his teammates and the system and coincidence in some regard, the rebounding is just innate. Not much of an athlete and with a game that stays pretty grounded, Meeks has grabbed rebounds more effectively than anyone on the roster. As star NBA rebounders Kevin Love and Zach Randolph have proven, it isn't always the guy who can jump the highest that snatches all the boards; It is the best-positioned man who does.

Worst-case scenario is that Meeks' production tails off even if his minutes stay consistent. Against better competition this seems more than likely anyhow, even if his level of play doesn't dip. Also, combined with the lack of shot-blocking ability, Meeks' usefulness is very much built into his efficient scoring and rebounding. 

A reasonable outcome would see Meeks gain more playing time as the year went along but his production remain the same. There is no shame in this; averaging roughly six and six is a pretty good season for a freshman, whether he's being given just 12 minutes a night or 25.

Meeks' ceiling this year is he becomes a double-double machine. Each scenario in the likely seasons of Meeks build off one another. On the down side, his minutes are equal but his production drops. On the good side, his minutes would kick up while his production stays equal. Thus, the best season Meeks could produce would occur if his minutes went up and his production went up with it.

Out of the three Carolina freshmen, although Meeks has the lowest long-term ceiling just based off athleticism and upside, he clearly has the highest immediate upside in terms of what he can do for UNC in 2013-14.