How the Prince Fielder Trade Will Impact Miguel Cabrera After Back-to-Back MVPs

The Detroit Tigers signed Prince Fielder before the 2012 season hoping to get a dynamic one-two punch in the middle of the order for a long time, with Miguel Cabrera acting as Batman to Fielder's Robin. 

That plan got blown up on Wednesday night when Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported that Fielder had been traded to the Texas Rangers for second baseman Ian Kinsler. 

The deal was later made official following approval from Major League Baseball, with the Tigers also sending $30 million to the Rangers. 

While there are plenty of things to dissect about what this means for the Tigers, Rangers, Fielder and Kinsler, what about what this does, if anything, to Miguel Cabrera?

You remember Miggy, that guy who has won back-to-back MVP awards and is the best hitter on the planet. 

So let's see what Cabrera should be expected to do without Fielder hitting behind him. 

The Protection Myth

Just as a quick refresher, let's take a look at Cabrera's offensive numbers before Fielder signed with Detroit and in the two years with the big man behind him.

Seasons	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	WAR
2008-11	.322	.403	.571	35	115	5.2
2012-13	.338	.417	.620	44	138	7.2

It certainly appears that Fielder's presence behind Cabrera in Detroit's lineup had a huge impact on Miggy's production. All of his rate stats improved by a significant margin, so this is bad news for the Tigers, right?

Not so fast, my friend. 

There are a few things that have to be put in context before we immediately credit Cabrera's two MVP awards to Fielder hitting behind him. 

First, there is a mythical concept that lineup protection is a real thing that changes the way teams pitch to an opposing player. It makes for a nice narrative, but there is no evidence to support it. 

The most recent case in point I love to use involves Pittsburgh Pirates superstar Andrew McCutchen in 2012. He led the National League with 194 hits, had a career high 31 home runs and a slash line of .327/.400/.553. 

You know what the No. 4 hitter, directly behind McCutchen, in Pittsburgh's lineup hit in 2012? In 623 at-bats, the No. 4 hitter hit .255/.308/.435 with a split OPS+ (sOPS+) of 82 (100 is league average and anything less is below average). 

Dylan Wright conducted a study in 2003 for Baseball Think Factory in which he went over 27 players who were in "protectee" spots, defined as having at least 75 at-bats in front of a player who had a slugging percentage of at least .500 and enough at-bats to qualify for a batting title. 

Wright's study also made sure those players in protectee spots had 75 at-bats away from the protector in order to properly judge whether there was any notable difference in performance. Here is what the results showed:

"

Using the classifications stated above, there were 23 protectors and 27 protectees. Out of those 27 protectees, 11 of them saw an improved performance in OPS hitting in front of a protector, while 16 of them saw a decrease in performance. By looking at (BB+K)/PA as an estimation of players seeing more strikes, we see that 15 batters had an increase in (BB+K)/PA with a protector behind them, while 11 had a lower (Sosa had almost the exact % here). 

"

So if you follow that line of thinking, Fielder's absence isn't going to do much, if anything, to hurt Cabrera's output. 

Anyone worried about Cabrera suddenly getting the Barry Bonds treatment is forgetting that Victor Martinez is still in the lineup, and the Tigers may not be done making moves. It's no secret owner Mike Ilitch is 84 years old and desperately wants to bring a World Series to Detroit. 

Who knows what the money being saved on Fielder's contract will tempt the Tigers to do as we approach the winter meetings.

If that's not evidence enough for you, keep reading, because we have got all sorts of numbers and stats about Cabrera. 

But...All The RBI!!!

There are traditionalists reading this and looking at the spike in Cabrera's RBI totals. While it is true Miggy's had the two highest RBI totals of his career with Fielder hitting behind him, you also have to look at who is hitting in front of him. 

After all, RBI are all about opportunities. Fielder hitting fourth has nothing to do with who is on base when Cabrera, the No. 3 hitter, steps into the batter's box. 

Here are the collective on-base percentage totals for the top two hitters in Detroit's lineup during the Miguel Cabrera era:

Seasons	No. 1 Hitter OBP	No. 2 Hitter OBP
2008-11	.336	.336
2012-13	.347	.326

The decrease in on-base percentage from the No. 2 spot is not insignificant, but considering the leadoff hitter had 34 more plate appearances over the last two years does help everyone hitting directly behind him to drive in more runs. 

Cabrera was more likely to come up with at least one runner on base the last two years than in the previous four years; therefore, his chances to drive in a run increased significantly. 

A Deeper Scientific Dive

Another factor to consider in this discussion is runs scored. If Fielder really did provide that much help to Cabrera, then the number of times Cabrera crossed the plate should, in theory, have increased. However, Cabrera actually scored more runs (111 in 2010 and 2011) in the two years before Fielder signed with Detroit (109 in 2012, 103 in 2013). 

Home run production is also an area that Cabrera improved upon with Fielder hitting behind him. However, there is a logical explanation for that. First, Cabrera's total power output hasn't dramatically increased in the last two years. He slugged .606 in 2012, which was 16 points lower than his 2010 total.

He did slug .636 this season, which was a new career high at the age of 30. But to attribute some of that to Fielder would be wrong. There have been extensive studies done suggesting most players are going to peak in their age 27-31 seasons. 

If Cabrera is right in the middle of his peak, when he was already fantastic in those early years, should we be surprised that he's gotten a bit better recently?

There is also the huge increase in Cabrera's average WAR totals. He went from being a five-win player in the years before Fielder arrived to a seven-win player after. 

This is the one spot where Fielder's absence is going to knock Cabrera down a peg, but it actually has nothing to do with Fielder as a hitter. 

When the Tigers signed Fielder before the 2012 season, a decision was made to move Cabrera back to third base, where he hadn't played every day since 2007 with the Marlins.

It showed in his performance, as every defensive metric and simple eye test told you Miggy wasn't a good defensive third baseman. He has been the eighth-worst defensive player in baseball, regardless of position, since moving back to the hot corner. 

Trading Fielder leaves first base open for Cabrera once again. Considering the offensive barrier at first base is higher than it is at third base, it's going to be harder for Cabrera to post a WAR total of 7.6 like he did in 2013. 

The closest any first baseman came to matching Cabrera's offensive value in 2013 was Baltimore's Chris Davis, who finished with 6.8 Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that kind of player; that's a superstar in every sense of the word. But the position change is going to take away from Cabrera's total value, at least a little bit.

He might be better defensively at first base, because it'd be hard to be a worse defensive third baseman than he was. 

Some of that lost value might get made up from the fact that Cabrera no longer has to go through the daily grind of playing third base. It was obvious to anyone watching the Tigers in September and October that he couldn't move because of the groin injury that required surgery after the season. 

Cabrera's not going to get confused for a marathon runner any time soon, but he was making the Molina family look like Usain Bolt with the way he gingerly ran the bases. Not having to twist and turn his body as much at first base will save all sorts of wear and tear. 

Cabrera Is Still Going to Be Cabrera

As you can undoubtedly tell from the evidence provided, I have no doubt whatsoever that Miguel Cabrera will continue to be one of the best players in Major League Baseball and the best hitter in the world for the foreseeable future. 

We have seen Cabrera hit everything since he came up as a fresh-faced 20-year-old for the Florida Marlins in 2003. He's taken his game to another level since 2010, winning three batting titles and posting an OPS no lower than .999 during that span. 

At some point, Cabrera will stop being the best hitter in the world, but that will have nothing to do with Fielder being in Texas. It is just a natural aging cycle that happens to every athlete, no matter how great he or she is. 

Note: All stats courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted. 

If you want to talk baseball, feel free to hit me up on Twitter.