UFC 167: Fights with the Highest Probability to End in KO

Saturday's UFC 167 card in Las Vegas isn't hurting for star power, but will the event be light in excitement? Rashad Evans and Chael Sonnen are huge names, and they aren't even in the main event.

The headliner bout is a UFC welterweight championship clash between champion Georges St-Pierre and Johny Hendricks.

The challenger is known for his explosive punching power, while GSP has been tagged as boring by some critics recently. What's the reason for the criticism? There can be a few theories, but the one that makes the most sense is his lack of knockout wins in recent fights.

Though he hasn't lost a fight since 2007, GSP hasn't stopped an opponent in the Octagon since 2008.

Knockouts generate the most excitement in MMA. Predicting when and how they will occur is a tricky deal. GSP's wrestling prowess gives him an edge in that category, and he uses his advantage on a regular basis. That strategy doesn't lend itself to a lot of KO wins, though.

Fighters who have done their homework know what their opponents will bring into the Octagon, but sometimes all the preparation in the world can't save them from being stopped. As good as GSP is as a wrestler and defensive fighter, it will only take one clean shot from Hendricks to turn the night upside down.

The numbers don't tell us everything we need to predict who's going to sleep in a fight, but they do offer us some base for our arguments. Knowledge of GSP's recent bouts and his awareness of Hendricks' punching power would lead you to believe the chances the champion retains his title by KO are slim.

The obvious game plan for GSP is to make it a wrestling match. Hendricks is a two-time NCAA Division I champion, but he still isn't the grappler GSP is. The champion's takedown success rate is 76 percent, and he has defended 86 percent of his opponent's attempts to take him down. 

Hendricks' takedown accuracy and defense rate is just 50 and 63 percent, respectively—and he has never faced a wrestler as good as GSP.

Looking at both fighters career numbers, per stats taken from Sherdog, 39.5 percent of GSP and Hendricks' combined fights have ended in KO. That's factoring in the fights that they have won and lost by KO/TKO. Considering GSP's wrestling prowess, Hendricks' power, GSP's status as the favorite and the improbability that the champion can win by KO, it seems that 60-40 odds the fight ends in KO is logical.

Here's a similar look at every match on the card and a look at the fight with the highest and lowest potential for a KO.

Matchup	Total Combined Percentage of Fights Ending in KO	Total Combined Fights
Gian Villante vs. Cody Donovan	.600	25
Rory MacDonald vs. Robbie Lawler	.553	47
Georges St-Pierre vs. Johny Hendricks	.395	43
Sergio Pettis vs. Will Campuzano	.384	26
Erik Perez vs. Edwin Figueroa	.366	30
Tim Elliott vs. Ali Bagautinov	.333	27
Donald Cerrone vs. Evan Dunham	.288	45
Josh Koscheck vs. Tyron Woodley	.270	37
Rick Story vs. Brian Ebersole	.183	87
Anthony Lapsley vs. Jason High	.166	48
Thales Leites vs. Ed Herman	.142	56

Is Gian Villante vs. Cody Donovan Headed for a Major Scrap?

According to this little formula, Gian Villante vs. Cody "Donnybrook" Donovan has the highest potential to end in KO. The numbers could be a little deceiving in this one, though. Villante actually has only had one of his last five fights end in KO.

He stopped Trevor Smith in January 2012 on a Strikeforce Challengers card.

Donovan, on the other hand, has seen his last two fights end in KO/TKO. The two men both lost their last bouts to powerful up-and-comer Ovince St. Preux, but Donovan was stopped in the first round of his meeting with him.

Both men definitely like to mix it up, but we'll see who wins and if the fight ends via KO.

Thales Leites vs. Ed Herman Probably Won't Satisfy Hardcore KO Fans

In a total of 56 combined fights, Leites and Herman have only had eight bouts end in KO or TKO. Leites is a renowned submission artist who is always more comfortable on the mat. The arm triangle choke is one of his favorites. 

He's won six fights with that maneuver, per Sherdog. Take a look at him finishing Matt Horwich with it in AFC - Amazon Forest Combat 2.

Herman is also an accomplished submission artist. He's 21-9 in his career and has won 13 of his fights via tapout and just five by KO. The chances either man can stop his opponent are very slim. That said, fights aren't fought on paper. 

The final verdict will be seen in the Octagon Saturday night.

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