A Sneak Peak at the 2009 Minnesota Vikings

A year ago, you couldn’t keep tabs on the Minnesota Vikings without hearing all about Super Bowl-caliber somethings.

A Super Bowl-caliber running game? Yep.

A Super Bowl-caliber rush defense? Check.

A Super Bowl-caliber pass rush? Of course.

So where the heck is that Super Bowl ring?

The Vikes took a step forward in 2008, winning the division for the first time since 2000—and hoisting an NFC North banner for the first time ever.

But Minnesota’s quest for a championship ended the same way it always has in the 47-year history of the franchise: Badly.

The bar isn’t any lower heading into 2009. And unless this bunch of People Eaters is ready to make the leap to world-beaters, the Vikings' faithful are just about ready to pitch a Super Bowl-caliber fit.


Last Year’s Finish

10-6, NFC North champions, lost at home in Wild Card round of NFC playoffs to Philadelphia

The Rundown

In 2008, the Vikings perfected the two-step that leaves adherents of conventional football wisdom drooling: Run the ball, and stop the run.

Minnesota’s rushing attack rolled up 145 yards rushing per game, the No. 5 mark in the league, and the Vikings’ rush defense topped the NFL for the third season in a row—the first time any team has pulled off that particular three-peat since the AFL-NFL merger.

But while the Vikes rode their mastery of the ground game to the team’s first playoff berth under Brad Childress, they hardly ran away with the division. Minnesota needed a Week 17 win over the resting Giants to wrap up the NFC North crown.

In fact, the Vikings made a habit of living dangerously all season long, playing five games that were decided on field goals in the closing seconds (and escaping four of those outings with a win).

If the Vikings hope to bring home a second straight division title in less heart-stopping fashion, they’ve got a few wrinkles to iron out. Quarterback concerns, a search for special teams solutions, and integrating a pair of new offensive linemen headline Minnesota’s offseason “to do” list. 

The Vikings are one of three would-be division contenders with a coach who could use a strong showing to stay off the hot seat (we can’t fathom what atrocity new Lions coach Jim Schwartz would have to commit to get a pink slip after one season, given Detroit’s starting point).

Childress has prodded the team a step further each year since taking the job, stepping neatly from 6-10 to 8-8 to 10-6. Heading into the fourth season of his five-year deal, he’ll need to take the Vikings at least as far as he did in 2008 to lay questions about his job security to rest.

Finally, if you’re looking for a feel-good story from the Vikes in 2009, keep an eye on defensive end Kenechi Udeze. The former first-round pick missed all of last year while battling leukemia, and will compete for a role in training camp. After fighting for his life, anything Udeze accomplishes on the football field going forward has to be considered a minor miracle.

Five Burning Questions

 
1. Can Minnesota Manufacture a Solution at Quarterback?

In the Childress era, the Vikings’ quest for a savior under center never gets old.

Since shipping out a disgruntled Daunte Culpepper in March 2006, Minnesota has tried five different starting quarterbacks in three seasons. The only passer of that group still with the team is Jackson, a second-round pick from 2006 whom Childress targeted as “a diamond in the rough.”

But while Jackson’s had the “rough” part down to date, the diamond has yet to show up.  He’s posted a 58.4 percent completion rate, 20 touchdowns,  and 18 interceptions in 19 career starts.

The man who ousted him for 11 games in the middle of 2008—journeyman Gus Frerotte—is gone, but the team spent a fourth-round pick to acquire Sage Rosenfels (62.5 percent, 30 TD, 29 INT in 12 starts) from Houston as a competitor and an insurance policy.

At this point, the Vikings aren’t looking for either Jackson or Rosenfels to make it rain out there.

The team simply wants a serviceable signal-caller who can nudge the league’s No. 25 passing offense in the right direction, and feed Bernard Berrian—and rookie playmaker Percy Harvin—the occasional deep ball to keep defenses from loading up on Adrian Peterson.

The early speculation is that if it comes down to a head-to-head camp battle between Rosenfels and Jackson, Rosenfels has the upper hand, but Jackson closed out last year with seven touchdowns, one pick and a 62 percent completion clip over his final three games, and still qualifies as Childress’ prized pupil.

Of course, if a certain someone (rhymes with “Schmett Schmarve”) migrates north from Hattiesburg, Miss., all bets regarding Minnesota’s quarterback situation are off.

Fancy rooting for a dark horse? Plan your trip to Mankato this August and start working on your John David Booty call.


2. How Quickly Will the New Faces on the O-Line Get Comfortable?

The departure of Matt Birk, whisked away as a free agent by the Ravens, forces the Vikings to do something they haven’t done since 2005: Break in a new center.

John Sullivan, a 2008 sixth-round pick out of Notre Dame, will get the first crack at filling Birk’s shoes. He’ll line up alongside the aptly named Phil Loadholt, a 6’8”, 332-pound rookie tackle out of Oklahoma who figures to replace makeshift right tackle Ryan Cook as a starter.

Loadholt (just let it roll off the tongue) should open up a few more holes on the right side for Peterson, who picked up 34 of his 71 first downs last season (excluding touchdowns) going left.

But new offensive linemen typically need some time to click, especially when the center—who is responsible for directing blocking schemes—is learning on the job himself. When Birk spent all of 2005 on injured reserve, the Vikings jumped from No. 11 in the league in sacks allowed to No. 4.

Minnesota allowed the seventh-most sacks in the league last season. That doesn’t leave much room for error in 2009 if the O-Line struggles to come together. AP can keep running left behind Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson while the line works through its growing pains, but if the pass-blocking falters, whoever wins the starting quarterback job had better learn to love the turf. 


3. Will Chad Greenway and the Linebackers Earn a Little Love?

Sandwiched between a defensive line that includes multiple All-Pro picks and a secondary that sent Antoine Winfield to his first Pro Bowl last year, Minnesota’s linebacking corps must feel a little lonely now and then.

But the second layer of the Vikings defense features a few rising stars of its own.

Left outside linebacker Chad Greenway notched 115 tackles, 5.5 sacks and three forced fumbles in his sophomore campaign last year.

Middle linebacker E.J. Henderson was on track to build on his 2007 season (118 tackles, 4.5 sacks, three forced fumbles) before a toe injury ended his season after Week Four. And ROLB Ben Leber picked off two passes to go along with a forced fumble and 1.5 sacks.

Opponents try to counter the Vikings’ nigh-impenetrable rushing defense and fearsome pass rush with a steady diet of short and mid-range throws. Minnesota faced the 12th-most pass attempts in football last year, for an average completion of 10.2 yards per catch.

If Henderson and Greenway can snag a few of those passes as souvenirs—and keep up the steady contributions to the run defense and pass rush—they’ll take away one of the few high-percentage plays opposing offenses have left against the Vikes, and win some recognition for Minnesota’s linebackers as an elite unit in their own right.

4. Will an Offense That Hinges on Ball Control Learn to Protect the Ball?

When it came to turnovers, Minnesota’s No. 17-ranked offense didn’t do itself many favors last year.

The Vikings tossed 17 interceptions (11th in the league), and fumbled 31 times, losing 14—the sixth- and fourth-highest totals in the NFL, respectively (fumble statistics vary slightly from source to source—these totals come from CBSSports.com.) All told, the Vikings tied the Jets and Rams for the fourth-most giveaways in pro football.

Frerotte was one major culprit, throwing 15 picks in 11 starts—or one every 20 pass attempts. Jackson put the ball in enemy hands just twice, but Rosenfels actually was even looser than Frerotte, recording an ominous 5.7 percent interception rate with the Texans last year. For a team that needs a game manager rather than a gunslinger, that simply won’t do.

Peterson also developed a troubling case of butterfingers last season, fumbling nine times—six in the second half of the year—and losing four. He told the Minneapolis Star Tribune last week that the issue came down to “being careless with the ball,” and that cutting back on fumbles isn’t his main concern for 2009.

The Vikings had better hope he’s right: If Minnesota can’t trust the NFL rushing champion to keep the ball off the ground, the offense doesn’t have a Plan B.
 

5. Can Somebody—Anybody—Get a Bead on Opposing Punt Returners?

A touchdown surrendered on one of every 10 punt returns. The highest punt return average allowed in football. The fifth-fewest fair catches forced in the league.

Never mind getting fired: Given the gruesome details of Minnesota’s special teams performance last year, it’s a wonder that coordinator Paul Ferraro wasn’t jailed.

Ferraro didn’t wait around to get the boot, bolting for St. Louis in the offseason. And new coordinator Brian Murphy certainly has his work cut out for him.

Free-agent import Karl Paymah, a cornerback who specialized in return coverage in Denver, will join the rescue mission.

Linebacker Heath Farwell, who was voted the Vikings' special teams MVP in 2006, will return after missing all of last year with a torn ACL. Minnesota inked Farwell to a three-year, $8 million deal in March, signaling that the team thinks he'll bounce back from the injury just fine.

Third-round pick Asher Allen, a Georgia defensive back, could play a role in the revamped coverage unit as well. At 5’9” with just three picks in college, Allen doesn’t jump out as a playmaker in the secondary—and projects as the third or fourth corner on the Vikings depth chart—but should have the chance to make some noise on special teams.

The Vikings also didn’t gain much ground of their own in the return game, weighing in at No. 22 in kick returns, No. 24 in punt returns, and leading the league in fair catches.

Both Allen and free-agent signee Glenn Holt, a former Bengals receiver and returner who averaged 24.3 yards per return last year, could help in that department, but if Murphy can upgrade the team’s kick and punt coverage from dismal to merely mediocre, anything else will be just gravy.


Don’t Forget About…

…Tyrell Johnson. The 2008 second-round pick out of Arkansas State will replace Darren Sharper (departed for New Orleans as free agent) at strong safety.

Johnson spent the first seven games of his rookie season filling in for Madieu Williams at free safety after Williams suffered a neck injury in training camp. Coming out of college, Johnson had a knack for getting up close and personal with the football, amassing 94 tackles, six picks, two forced fumbles and a defensive touchdown as a senior.

If Johnson comes into his own in his second pro season, he and a healthy Williams will shore up Minnesota’s No. 18-ranked pass defense. Johnson’s ability to deliver the knockout punch on tackles makes him effective in run support, and gives receivers crossing through his zone something to worry about. 


Our Best Guess

The consensus among Twin Cities sports pundits is that the Vikings have the talent to go somewhere between 14-2 and 16-0, win a championship, and bring peace to the Middle East.

Pulling off that last feat seems more likely than winning on the road in Pittsburgh in Week Seven. It’s difficult to see the Vikings topping last year’s 4-2 record within the division, and unless Minnesota kicks the habit of keeping both teams in the game, it’s hard to pencil in any certain “W’s” on the schedule.

The Vikings also face the increasingly likely prospect of losing star defensive tackles Pat and Kevin Williams to four-game drug suspensions (more on the potential impact of that loss here). If your glass is half-empty, the Vikes are a court decision and an Adrian Peterson knee injury away from missing the playoffs and starting over next year with Mike Shanahan.

Still, Minnesota added more than it lost in the offseason, and carries a well-established identity into 2009. The Vikings take the North again at 11-5 this year, and get another shot at a home game in the opening round of the playoffs.