NFL Week 10 Picks: Underdogs That Will Get the Upset

The beauty of the NFL was on display last week. There were upsets, unexpected performances (Nick Foles, anybody?) and thrilling comebacks. Any team is capable of getting a win (except for the Jacksonville Jaguars), so here are three games in which the favorites should be worried.

Carolina Panthers Over San Francisco 49ers

If the playoffs started today, the Carolina Panthers would be the NFC’s second wild-card team. Despite this, not many people are talking about how well they’re playing.

Part of the reason for that is the low level of competition they’ve faced in their recent four-game winning streak (.182 winning percentage). That level of competition is going to ramp up fast when they face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10 and the New England Patriots in Week 11.

But their good play is not merely a result of easy games.

Their front seven is one of the best in the league that nobody is talking about, and their two rookies (Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short) are playing extremely well. They boast a top-two run defense and a top-10 rushing offense.

Team	Rushing Yards/Game (Rank)	Rushing Yards Allowed/Game (Rank)
San Francisco 49ers	153.0 (1)	104.6 (12)
Carolina Panthers	130.1 (8)	79.1 (2)

Similarly, the 49ers are built around winning the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball and their strong ground game.

The difference in this game will be quarterback play.

Cam Newton has rebounded in a big way from his sophomore slump, and while Colin Kaepernick has also bounced back from a poor start to the season, Newton has looked better in recent weeks.

Player	Completion %	Yards	TDs	INTs	Passer Rating
Colin Kaepernick	55.6	728	4	1	97.1
Cam Newton	72.3	916	7	2	109.8

This Carolina team is for real, and it’ll be hungry to make a big statement with a win over San Francisco.

Houston Texans Over Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals once again have one of the worst offensive lines in football. According to Pro Football Focus, it is actually the worst O-line in the NFL (subscription required). The Houston Texans' defensive line should be licking its lips in anticipation of its imminent feasting on Carson Palmer.

J.J. Watt and Co. will be able to get consistent pressure on Palmer all day, which will create turnovers and be the difference in the game.

Palmer has been above-average when not under pressure but downright awful when he’s felt the heat.

	Completion %	Yards	TDs	INTs	Passer Rating
No Pressure	69.1	1449	9	7	93.5
Under Pressure	47.6	464	1	7	35.4

The Houston Texans have been a great defensive team all year, giving up the fewest yards per game of any team in the league. Their downfall has been poor quarterback play.

Enter Case Keenum.

The undrafted rookie was spectacular on Sunday Night Football last week, almost leading the Texans to an upset victory over the Indianapolis Colts. Some will argue that the sample size is too small to hop on the Keenum bandwagon, and they’re right.

But watching the tape, you can see a quarterback who is confident and can make all the throws in the book. Keenum has earned the trust of his veteran teammates, and he’ll get his first win as a professional.

Buffalo Bills Over Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers are favored in this matchup because they’re at home—they shouldn’t be.

Their defense has been porous against the run and the pass, ranking as the 10th-worst defense according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

In Week 10, they host a Buffalo Bills team that is better than people give it credit for. Its rushing attack is averaging 145.8 yards per game and will pose problems for the Steelers defense.

C.J. Spiller looked healthy in Week 9 when he gashed the Kansas City Chiefs for 116 yards, and he’s been taken off the injury report according to Joe Buscaglia of the Bills Radio Network.

Furthermore, EJ Manuel is set to make his return, and he’ll give the passing game a boost.

The other advantage that the Bills hold is on defense. They’re Pro Football Focus’ eighth-best defense (subscription required), and they have a strong, physical defensive line that will stuff the Steelers' running game and get pressure on Ben Roethlisberger.

This Buffalo Bills team is underrated, but it’ll win mostly because the Steelers just aren’t very good in a number of phases. That discrepancy will be highlighted on the ground, where the Bills will be able to control the time of possession and leave Heinz Field with a win.