Pros and Cons of Alexei Emelin's 4-Year Deal with the Montreal Canadiens
As Montreal Canadiens defenseman Alexei Emelin inches closer to a late 2013 return from a knee injury, he at least no longer needs to worry about his longer-term future thanks to a new four-year, $16.4 million contract extension. Do Habs fans have cause for concern, though?
Here are the pros and cons of Emelin’s new deal:
All salary cap information taken from capgeek.com.
Pro: Emelin’s Proven to Be an Invaluable Asset
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Last year, with Emelin in the lineup, the Habs owned an impressive 25-8-5 record. Without him, the Habs went 5-10, including the 4-1 first-round playoff loss to the Ottawa Senators. That’s only telling half the story though.
For two straight years, Emelin led the Habs in hits thrown, but it’s the degree to which he led the team that is so impressive (or depressing).
In 2011-12, Emelin had 236 hits in 67 games (3.52 per game). The next-closest Hab was Erik Cole with 186 in 82 (2.27). The next-closest defenseman was Josh Gorges with 131 in 82 games (1.60), leading to the argument that, without Emelin, Montreal’s defense is overly soft.
In 2013, Emelin had 110 hits in 38 games (2.89). The next-closest Canadien was Brandon Prust. He had 87 hits, also in 38 games (2.29), meaning the Habs were so lacking in physicality that those who played a full season couldn’t even catch Emelin's runner-up, who also played 10 less games.
Meanwhile, the next-closest Habs defenseman to Emelin was Francis Bouillon (78 hits in 48 games; 1.625). Bouillon might have surprised with his reliable play, but was still little more than a depth defenseman with the sixth-lowest average amount of ice time per game among blue liners.
Of course, considering the Habs pride themselves on puck possession and you can’t hit opponents who don’t have the puck, Habs players shouldn’t necessarily have high hit totals. However, one player shouldn’t be relied upon to run away with the category, especially not when he’s injured his knee.
Con: Uncertainty Surrounding His Knee
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While Emelin has certainly proven himself to be a key component to the Habs’ success, that was in the past. He might be a different player presently.
There’s just no telling how Emelin’s knee will react to in-game action. He need only look to defense partner Andrei Markov to see just how debilitating knee surgeries can be on a player’s career.
Markov is hardly a greybeard at just 34 years of age. However, surgeries on each of his knees have slowed him down drastically.
Markov admittedly represents an extreme and Emelin needn’t worry that his game will drop off that much. However, considering Markov was arguably a Norris Trophy-caliber defenseman in his prime and Emelin will never be thought of as such, it presents an interesting question.
In essence, what’s worse than the Habs signing a player with a knee injury long-term is that the Habs signed him without seeing him play a game. What’s worst (at least in regard to the deal’s financials) is even if Emelin is 100 percent, he might not be worth the money for which they signed him.
Con: Paying a Premium for a Good, Not Great Player
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Despite being the Habs most significant physical presence, Emelin still has a ways to go before he can be considered truly elite. Nevertheless, the Habs deemed it necessary to pay him as such.
A look at comparable players in the NHL reveals that Emelin is being paid more than many of the league’s prototypical physical stalwarts. Those include Brooks Orpik (cap hit of $3.75 million), Rob Scuderi ($3.375 million), Dan Girardi ($3.325 million), Marc Staal ($3.3975 million), Dennis Seidenberg ($4 million) and Francois Beauchemin ($3.5 million).
Beauchemin, it should be noted, in addition to him once being a Hab and mistakenly put on waivers, actually finished fourth in Norris Memorial Trophy voting last season.
One of the few notable comparables that makes more than Emelin is Niklas Kronwall ($4.75 million). However, it’s fair to say that Kronwall, who, like Beauchemin, contributes much more offensively to his team than Emelin does to his, is worth the extra $650,000 in cap space if not more.
One other way to look at it is the Habs are paying a premium for a player they deem to be incredibly valuable to their team, comparables be damned. If they’ve got the money, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
With the salary cap poised to increase after the drop down to $64.3 million this season, the Habs will likely find themselves in such a situation. However, they must also keep in mind that other, more significant players are due to become free agents on July 1.
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Pro: One Less Free Agent to Sign
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The Habs will have six unrestricted free agents to re-sign next summer (or let go), and that’s not including the most significant player of all, restricted free agent P.K. Subban. Lars Eller, another soon-to-be RFA, also figures hugely into the team’s long-term plans.
Admittedly, several pending UFAs like Brian Gionta, Francis Bouillon and Douglas Murray will likely not be resigned, but general manager Marc Bergevin’s work is nonetheless cut out for him.
Considering Emelin projects as such a big part of the team moving forward (and the biggest defenseman, excluding Murray), it definitely helps getting his contract out of the way early. It also sets the tone for negotiations between Subban and the Canadiens, which, according to TSN’s Bob McKenzie, are going to start within the next few weeks.
Depending on your point of view, though, that tone can be positive or negative.
Pro: It Sets a Positive Precedent
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That aforementioned precedent is negative in that it implies that Subban is in line for a huge raise himself, one that might adversely impact the team’s salary cap situation for many years to come.
It conversely can be interpreted as a positive sign, because Subban would very much deserve a huge salary increase, one totaling north of $8 million perhaps. If Emelin is getting so much love, it stands to reason Subban will as well, and it’s reassuring to know the Habs won’t try and shortchange their star player whom means so much to the future of the organization.
However, with Subban getting benched in recent games, it’s hard not to think the worst and believe the Habs are trying to superficially drive down his value. Even McKenzie mused, telling TSN Radio 690 of Montreal:
"“There are some people who think that… the Montreal Canadiens want to be able to say to P.K.: ‘Look we don’t trust you defensively. You’ve still got so much growing up to do before you can justifiably ask for $7 million per year like Drew Doughty'.”
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Everyone recalls how Subban held out at the start of last season, ultimately giving in to the team’s request to agree to less money this season and last in order to make his latest deal more of a bridge contract.
Heading into this season, he and Emelin, in that sense, found themselves in very similar situations. This is Emelin’s third pro contract, just like Subban’s next one will be. However, that’s where the similarities end. Subban is clearly the more valuable player and by a wide margin.
By accepting less money, Subban was tasked with proving his worth in order to earn the big payday he had been seeking, and he obviously did just that in spades by winning the Norris Memorial Trophy.
If Emelin was given such a hefty pay raise (from $2,000,000), one has to hope more is in store for Subban. If not and the Habs decide to play hardball once again, one has to first question if the Habs are indeed benching him with that endgame in mind.
Secondly, one must ask if it’s fair to bench one defenseman in order to get an upper hand in negotiations and then turn around and lob a gift of a contract to another who can’t even dress for a game.
Emelin was clearly paid on potential, namely his potential to rebound from a potentially career-threatening injury. At this point, it’s hard to tell just how good or bad Emelin’s contract will turn out to be. A lot of it is admittedly dependent upon his play when he comes back.
However, based on the sheer dollar amount and Emelin's style of play, it’s hard to imagine this deal turning out to be a bargain. At best, it will turn out to only be a decent contract, which isn’t saying very much. Hopefully Emelin will instead let his play do all the talking upon his return.
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