So What If You Had a Good Week 1 in the NBA?
The first week of the 2013-14 NBA season featured a boatload of surprises. The Philadelphia 76ers notched wins over the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls, Andrew Bynum played in a professional basketball game for the first time in about 1,000 years (give or take) and New York Knicks fans booed Andrea Bargnani from the moment he took the floor.
Well, that last one wasn't all that surprising. But you get the idea: Unforeseeable stuff dominated the league's opening week.
Chief among those unanticipated results were a trio of shocking individual performances. Rookie Michael Carter-Williams burst onto the scene with one of the most impressive NBA debuts in history, DeMarcus Cousins sent an early message that he was ready to justify his max deal, and DeMar DeRozan looked suspiciously like the Toronto Raptors' best player.
But as we all know, one week does not a season make. Disappointment is looming in the distance for all three of those guys, and here's why...
MCW as Icarus
It didn't take long for NBA fans to see the first stunner of the 2013-14 campaign. On just the second day of the regular season, the Sixers—expected by most to approach 70 losses—knocked off LeBron James and the Heat.
MCW was right in the middle of everything, shaking off a lackluster preseason to post one of the most impressive debut stat lines the league had ever seen. His 22 points, 12 assists, seven rebounds and nine steals (a rookie record) propelled the Sixers to a 114-110 win.
But he didn't stop there.
Over his next two games, both of which were 76ers wins, Carter-Williams totaled 40 points and 15 assists. He looked confident, surprisingly athletic and far more polished than anyone expected. Even more shockingly, he shot a robust 47 percent from long range in his first three NBA contests.
Suddenly, it appeared as though the Sixers had nabbed the top talent in the 2013 NBA draft.
The league had no choice but to award MCW Player of the Week honors for his season-opening run, putting him in some truly elite company.
But cracks started to show against the Golden State Warriors on Nov. 4.
Klay Thompson locked Carter-Williams down in the early going, leading to a season-high six turnovers and a season-worst 4-of-17 from the field. MCW's early success made him a priority for the Warriors' defense, and he wasn't up to the challenge of increased attention.
Carter-Williams' first week was a remarkable one. He exceeded absolutely everyone's wildest expectations by playing without a hint of fear against some of the league's top teams. But the rookie flew a little too close to the sun, and he's in for a precipitous fall.
It's not as though the questions about his jumper, toughness or strength are gone forever. We've got too much information and too many scouting reports from college, summer league and the preseason to believe that MCW somehow erased all of the flaws in his game when the regular season started.
He had a hot week, and the Sixers clearly played with the freedom of a team that knew no opponent was going to take them seriously. That's a liberating feeling, and we saw how MCW and his team took advantage of nonexistent expectations.
But defenses are keying on him now, and as his vulnerabilities continue to surface, opponents will only clamp down more tightly.
Let's hope Carter-Williams and the 76ers enjoyed their high-flying start while it lasted because their rapid descent to Earth has already begun.
The DeMarcus Cousins Mirage
Like Carter-Williams, DeMarcus Cousins started the 2013-14 season off with a bang. His 30-point, 14-rebound showing in a 90-88 victory over the Denver Nuggets had many pundits trumpeting the wisdom of the Sacramento Kings' decision to max out the fourth-year big man before the season started.
To be fair, Cousins looked positively beastly against the Nuggets, and he followed up that eye-opening performance with another double-double against the Los Angeles Clippers on Nov. 1.
But the wheels came off against the Warriors in Cousins' third game.
The Dubs wisely attacked Cousins from the outset, testing his shaky defense with Andrew Bogut post-ups on their first two offensive possessions. Bogut scored on hooks with both hands, which had to feel like a slap in the face to Cousins, as the Aussie is simply not a featured scoring threat in the Warriors' offense.
From that point on, Bogut poked, prodded and bullied the Kings center into bad shots, ultimately resulting in a sight that has been all too common in Cousins' career: the total mental checkout.
DMC stopped providing even minimal defensive effort, hoisted up a couple of perimeter shots and committed an obvious frustration foul against Bogut nearly 20 feet from the basket. Through it all, he grimaced, shrugged and whined to the officials.
After that third foul against Bogut, head coach Mike Malone benched his big man. Cousins played just 18 minutes in a game that Golden State ultimately won by a final score of 98-87.
In short, Cousins turned back into Cousins.
All told, Sacramento's maxed-out big man averaged 20.7 points and 10.3 rebounds on 47 percent shooting during the season's first week, per ESPN. Those are nice numbers.
But Cousins is currently the same psyche-out-victim-in-waiting he's always been, and until he shows a little emotional maturity, it's unreasonable to expect him to take a significant leap forward.
DeRozan Playing Just Well Enough
Just well enough to get traded, that is.
DeMar DeRozan put up impressive numbers during the season's first week. In particular, his 36 percent accuracy rate from long range and his improved court vision stand out as striking examples of his growth.
Overall, the Toronto Raptors shooting guard averaged 20.3 points, four rebounds and three assists in the season-opening three-game stretch.
Here's the problem, though: New Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri isn't the guy who agreed to pay DeRozan $9.5 million per year through the 2016-17 season. In addition, Ujiri is a member of the NBA's "Forward-Thinking Executive Club," which means he's probably not thrilled to be paying big money to a relatively one-dimensional wing like DeRozan.
On the one hand, DeRozan's nice first week might be forcing Ujiri to consider keeping him around. At just 24, it's possible that the fifth-year guard is maturing into a more complete player.
On the other, DeRozan's solid performance might be just good enough to create a some buzz on the market—buzz the shrewd Ujiri will try to exploit by shipping out his shooting guard.
Rudy Gay's name comes up first in most trade rumors, but according to ESPN's Marc Stein:
"The strong sense now, though, is that the Raps are prepared to trade virtually anyone on the current roster if a suitable offer presents itself.
"Anyone but [Jonas] Valanciunas," says one plugged-in source.
"
It's safe to assume that DeRozan's early work is going to draw a few offers that Toronto might deem "suitable."
On a better team, DeRozan profiles as a scorer off the bench. So if he winds up getting traded to a club looking to use him in a more appropriate role, expect his numbers to take a hit.
Of course, any ongoing trade speculation presupposes that he'll be able to maintain his current, career-best level of production. That's a dubious proposition in itself.
One way or the other, DeRozan's early success won't last.
A Positive Note
So, we've just spent a few hundred words talking about hot starts that are sure to cool off in the coming weeks. Kind of a downer, huh?
In an effort to buck things up, how about a prediction that one of the NBA's first-week trends actually is sustainable? Ready?
OK, here goes: The Boston Celtics are going to continue their early ineptitude throughout the season, possibly finishing with fewer wins than any team in the league.
Feel better now?
