Will the NBA's Tanking Teams Be as Bad as We Thought They Would?
After all the commentary on taking and historically poor performances, the NBA's bottom-feeders looked more like giant killers in their 2013-14 season openers.
The Philadelphia 76ers knocked off the two-time defending champion Miami Heat. The Sacramento Kings survived to score an upset over the Denver Nuggets, the third best team in the West last season. The rebuilding Phoenix Suns ran the playoff-hopeful Portland Trail Blazers out of the gym.
Although neither entered the win column, the Utah Jazz came dangerously close to knocking off the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Orlando Magic have suffered two losses by a combined total of only 15 points.
Is tanking no longer as appealing as it seemed?
That's not it at all. The 2014 class, somehow, is both top-heavy and incredibly deep.
Potential superstars hover near the top of mock draft boards: Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, Marcus Smart, Jabari Parker, just to name a few. But difference-makers can and will land from all angles of this class.
The chance to land one of these cornerstone pieces is alluring, but the appeal holds more weight with executives and fans than it does with the players on these rosters.
Did we all read these franchises wrong? Not necessarily. Losses will come, hordes of them in fact.
But these teams have talent, and the players on the floor aren't going to shut off their competitive edges.
Better Than Advertised?
It's hard not to think that these teams will play above their preseason billing, but that's more a sign of false advertisement than anything else.
No matter which situation you'd like to examine, there are players in place capable of changing the outcome of a game in their team's favor.
The Jazz lack experience, but opposing teams want no part of their massive frontcourt (Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter and rookie Rudy Gobert). Throw a playmaker on the perimeter (Gordon Hayward) and an explosive slasher alongside him (Alec Burks), and you can see where this team will steal its fair share of wins.
The Kings have too much talent to tank.
While the roster could use a boost from one of the tantalizing 2014 prospects, this team should finish closer to the playoff race than the cellar. DeMarcus Cousins looked every bit like a max player in his season debut (30 points and 14 rebounds). Greivis Vasquez and Isaiah Thomas form one of the league's best point guard pairings.
Michael Carter-Williams' NBA debut might have felt fluky (22 points, 12 assists, nine steals and seven rebounds), but the numbers are impossible to ignore. The fact that he compiled this sizzling stat line against the two-time defending champion Miami Heat only adds to the intrigue around the 76ers rookie.
The first look at new Suns coach Jeff Hornacek's uptempo offense was equally impressive. Phoenix sprinted to 30 points in its first quarter of the season and added a 31-point period after intermission while cruising to a comfortable 104-91 win over the playoff-hopeful Portland Trail Blazers.
Eric Bledsoe gave new life to his "Mini LeBron" nickname (22 points, seven rebounds and six assists), and backcourt mate Goran Dragic looked like a perfect partner (26 points and nine dimes). The Suns have the athletes to run opposing teams ragged, and they'll be a problem if they continue to attack with controlled speed.
The Magic might be tanking the perfect way. They've been competitive against two superior teams, giving their players exposure to crunch-time situations. But they've eventually fallen on the wrong end of the scoreboard, or perhaps the right side in this case.
Orlando has a nice inside-out combo for its future in Victor Oladipo and Nikola Vucevic, and Andrew Nicholson has rattled off back-to-back strong showings. The Magic aren't that far from climbing the Eastern Conference ladder.
Boston Celtics team president Danny Ainge might say that his team isn't tanking, but his roster says otherwise.
Still, Jeff Green's always a threat to have a big night (he scored 25 in his 2013-14 debut). Rookie bigs Vitor Faverani and Kelly Olynyk present matchup problems because of their ability to stretch the defense. And Avery Bradley's defense causes headaches for all 94 feet.
No matter what your take is on the quality of these rosters, remember that all of them are filled from a select pool of the world's greatest basketball players. They all have NBA talent, and they'll all be tough to handle when that talent is clicking together.
Wait, I Thought These Teams Were Bad?
They are, and their records will all reflect that by season's end.
For as much as I like the individual parts in Utah, their appeal comes from their future production, not their present output. None of these young guns can consistently carry the offensive torch.
Hayward's a complementary piece masquerading as a go-to scorer, and he doesn't have the skill to thrive under the defensive attention that comes with his new role. Favors has more flash than substance. Kanter is solid but unspectacular. Burks can create off the bounce, but defenses will crowd the paint until he makes them pay from distance (career 34.3 three-point percentage).
Sacramento is too good to be in this class, but not good enough to escape the lottery.
Ben McLemore needs time to realize his full potential. Coach Michael Malone doesn't have nearly as many defenders as he'd like. Outside of Cousins, the team lacks players who can consistently create their own offense.
Even if Carter-Williams' debut wasn't a mirage, it could be a long time before the Sixers score 114 points again. Evan Turner's hand has been anything but steady since being selected as the No. 2 pick in 2010 (career .429/.324/.747 slash). You can search for consistent scoring here, but it will be a tiring effort.
That's a major issue, because the lack of rim protection could mean plenty more 110-point nights by the opposition.
Unless you're buying Miles Plumlee's Suns debut—I'm not—then there are concerns with this frontcourt.
Old reliable Marcin Gortat is gone, leaving Phoenix leaning on more 18-point efforts from Plumlee or the perimeter shooting of Channing Frye and the Morris twins. Rookie Alex Len didn't dominate at the college level (11.9 points last season), so asking him to do so on this stage is grossly premature.
The Magic have plenty of options. Too many, in fact.
The mix of veterans (Jameer Nelson, Arron Afflalo, Jason Maxiell) and youth (Oladipo, Vucevic, Maurice Harkless, Tobias Harris) creates a puzzling dynamic for second-year coach Jacque Vaughn. He has the proven talent to keep his team competitive, but are wins more important than player development?
Vaughn has already called on 11 different players through two games, and has three rotation pieces (Harris, Glen Davis and Doron Lamb) working their way back from injury. This team needs an identity, and the search for one will continue to fill the loss column.
Boston almost has too many problems to count: point-guard play, interior defense, three-point shooting, offensive creativity.
Green might (finally) emerge as a star, but he'll be on a frantic search for help all season. He won't find it from the Brooklyn Nets' castaways, who added nothing more than age (Gerald Wallace), limitations (Kris Humphries) and redundancy (MarShon Brooks, Keith Bogans) to the roster.
Brandon Bass is fairly reliable, but the 28-year-old's ceiling is set. Brooks and Jordan Crawford will have their moments, but those will be sandwiched by awful decisions and atrocious shot selection. If Olynyk, Faverani or—when he's healthy—Rajon Rondo are the answer, then that help won't be coming any time soon.
The tanking race might start later than expected, but it's absolutely going to come.
So, Who Wins (Or Loses)?
It's hard to say anyone wins here.
Having the worst record guarantees nothing more than a top-four draft pick. In fact, the team with the best lottery odds hasn't emerged with the No. 1 selection since Orlando did it in 2004.
There's hope from all of these franchises to land a player like Wiggins, but do any of them have the players in place to hit the ground running with that 2014-15 rookie?
If the Jazz found a go-to scorer, Utah could be looking at one the fastest rebuilds in league history. The Suns should be set in the backcourt and down low next summer (after Len finds his footing), so a dynamic wing player could take them from lottery status to a postseason series.
If we're simply talking worst record, though, that's a tough one to pick.
The Kings are out of the equation, and I think the Jazz are simply too young to realize how bad they are. Utah will finish close to the cellar, but I can't see it falling all the way to the bottom.
The field is incredibly close after that. Public perception—and the Las Vegas oddsmakers—seems to put Philly on the lowest rung, but I'll go a different route and say Phoenix finishes with the lowest win total in the league.
The Western Conference is incredibly deep, and the Pacific Division has the potential to be loaded. The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers are two of the league's best, the Kings have an unstoppable force in the middle with Cousins and the Los Angeles Lakers will get Kobe Bryant back at some point.
I don't think the Suns have the least amount of talent, which is the greatest sign that this race for Wiggins might have far more wins involved than we could have imagined.
