2013 Fantasy Football Draft Do-Over: Re-Drafting the Top 10 Picks

While in real life you get no do-overs, seeing how this is indeed "fantasy" football, a mulligan has been granted. If given the chance, who would you choose with your first-round pick in a standard 10-team fantasy football draft?

In this re-draft of the first 10 picks, I will outline who you should pick in such a scenario.

Seeing how three games is a small sample size in determining where a player should be drafted, current production is merely a piece of the puzzle in slotting the players on this list.

Injury, supporting cast and a player's current role in his offense will also be determining factors.

Furthermore, this re-draft will be for an ESPN standard, 10-team, non-PPR league with a starting lineup that features only one quarterback, two running backs, two receivers, one tight end and a flex player (RB or WR) on offense.

With that said, who will claim the top spot? Will it be the incumbent Adrian Peterson, the record-breaking Peyton Manning or an overlooked player?

Let's find out.

Note: All fantasy stats, rankings and previous draft positions are according to ESPN.com

10. Arian Foster

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Defenders aren't the only thing Foster has to knock off of him.

Original Pick: C.J. Spiller

Fantasy Points: 28 

Positional Scoring Rank: 8

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. After being the second player selected on average in ESPN fantasy football leagues, Foster finds himself on the cusp of falling out the top 10.

While such a drop has to be discouraging for owners who dubbed Foster with such high expectations, there is a fantasy pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

For all his struggles to open the year, the fact remains that Foster is getting ample opportunities to tote the rock. This is evidenced by his 49 carries thus far, which happens to rank 12th in the league.

Seeing that these opening games are serving as somewhat of a tuneup for Foster, considering he missed the entire preseason, you can expect his production and touches to increase as the season progresses. 

Still, there's the issue of Ben Tate stealing some of Foster's thunder.

With Gary Kubiak stating to ESPN.com's Tania Ganguli earlier this season that he wanted Tate's and Foster's touches to "come out a little more closer to even," Foster is no longer worthy of being selected near the top of the draft.

9. Calvin Johnson

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No matter how many defenders shadow him, Johnson will his get numbers by game's end.

Original Pick: Calvin Johnson

Fantasy Points: 43

Positional Scoring Rank: 5

Johnson was the top receiver before the season, and as we enter Week 4, this still rings true.

If there was any knock on Johnson's record-breaking performance a year ago, it was his lack of touchdowns. With three scores—and an additional one questionably taken away by the officials—Johnson is already in striking range of the five touchdowns he scored last year.

Nonetheless, the fact remains that if Johnson couldn't move up on draft boards after a historic season, he isn't going to after a solid set of performances to open the season.

His touchdown total will probably mirror his career average of nine, but I doubt he gets close to the 1,900-yard plateau he crossed last season. Hence, he is stuck in the No. 9 spot.

8. Aaron Rodgers

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In the event you miss out on the top running backs, Rodgers is a great fall-back option.

Original Pick: Aaron Rodgers

Fantasy Points: 70 

Positional Scoring Rank: 3

To alter the words a tad from former head coach Dennis Green's infamous Monday Night Football rant, Rodgers is "who we thought he was."

While some may have wondered if Rodger's fantasy production would dip in light of Mike McCarthy declaring a need for a more balanced attack, with eight scores and over 1,000 passing yards through the first three games, as Stephen A. Smith would say, Rodgers remains a "bad man!"

Even with a renewed emphasis on running the ball, Green Bay's still horrid defense fortells a season in which Rodgers will have to maintain the status quo in order to keep the Packers afloat in the NFC playoff picture.

Thus, Rodgers remains in the No. 8 spot.

7. Doug Martin

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With sub-par quarterback play, Martin will remain the focus of opposing defenses.

Original Pick: Peyton Manning

Fantasy Points: 34 

Positional Scoring Rank: 8

Although Martin's draft stock took a slight tumble, you can't blame his fall on a lack of opportunity. With an NFL-high 73 carries, in addition to 13 targets in the passing game, Martin has had ample shots to muster up fantasy points.

Instead, Martin has fell victim to an underachieving supporting cast.

While I fully expect Tampa Bay's offensive line to open up more running lanes with guard Carl Nicks back from injury, I'm not as optimistic about the Buccaneers' quarterback situation.

With ESPN's Adam Schefter and Ed Werder reporting that Josh Freeman has been benched in favor of rookie Mike Glennon, the quarterback situation has gone from bad to worse.

In the aftermath of this move, you can expect defenses to load the line of scrimmage with nine defenders while all but daring Glennon to beat them with his arm.

So, while Martin will probably get more touches, and subsequently more yards, due to this change, he'll lack the touchdowns until Glennon can prove himself to be a quality starting quarterback.

6. Matt Forte

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Sep 8, 2013; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte (22) runs with the ball during the second half against the Cincinnati Bengals at Soldier Field. Chicago won 24-21. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Original Pick: Jamaal Charles

Fantasy Points: 44 

Positional Scoring Rank: 5

Drafted on average with the 20th pick in ESPN.com leagues, Forte has totaled 363 yards, two touchdowns and, most importantly, 73 touches in his route to fantasy superstardom.

With a more-efficient Jay Cutler under center, I'm expecting Forte's numbers to rival the stats he posted in 2008, when he set career-highs with 1,715 total yards and 12 total touchdowns.

In light of that, the only thing keeping Forte from being drafted higher is the fact that he is one of a bounty of options that Chicago has to score the football.

From Brandon Marshall to Alshon Jeffrey and Michael Bush, Forte has internal competition for the goal-line scores that the running backs drafted before him simply don't have.

Therefore, Forte's draft stock peaks at the No. 6 spot.

5. Jamaal Charles

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Will Andy Reid continue to call Charles' number or revert back to his pass-happy ways?

Original Pick: Doug Martin

Fantasy Points: 53

Positional Scoring Rank: 2

Call it my lack of faith in Andy Reid continuing to feed Charles but, despite his production, I'm not sold enough on Charles to draft him higher than this.

While Charles is the No. 10 rusher in the league, it stands to reason that he should be higher. 

With Kansas City holding leads for the majority of its three games, you'd think that the run-pass ratio would be 50-50 since common logic suggests that teams often run the ball more when ahead.

Well, welcome to the illogical that is Reid's coaching style.

As much of a factor as Charles has become in the passing game with Captain Checkdown (Alex Smith) at quarterback, it doesn't offset Reid's schizophrenic approach to the running game.

It's easy to stick with the run when you're front-running like the Chiefs have been to open the season. But what happens when Kansas City is staring up at a deficit?

History, and probably LeSean McCoy, tells us that in such a scenario, Reid will revert back to his old pass-happy habits.

Thus, Charles is stuck at the No. 5 spot.

4. Marshawn Lynch

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You know what you're getting with Lynch, touchdowns.

Original Pick: Ray Rice

Fantasy Points: 40 

Positional Scoring Rank: 7

With Lynch, what you see is what you get. He gets carries, he gets touchdowns and it rains Skittles. Outside of Adrian Peterson, running backs don't come as consistent as Lynch.

Still, such consistency has its negatives.

While he won't deliver too many dud performances and is good for at least 10-15 fantasy points a week, he also doesn't have a flare for the spectacular and won't carry a fantasy team with a 30-point performance as often as contemporaries Peyton Manning, LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson.

For this reason, the No. 4 spot is Lynch's ceiling in this fantasy draft.

3. Peyton Manning

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Quarterback or not, Manning's record-breaking pace makes him worthy of such a high selection.

Original Pick: Marshawn Lynch

Fantasy Points: 90 

Positional Scoring Rank: 1

I know, it's not often—or wise, for that matter—that a quarterback finds himself being taken this early in fantasy drafts, but Peyton Manning is breathing rare air right now.

With 12 scores and 1,143 passing yards through three games, the gap between Manning and the next best quarterback is so large that he's worthy of being picked this high.

In truth, Manning's draft stock is a victim of his team's success.

Considering how dominant the Denver Broncos have looked, and how weak the AFC is looking at this point, you have to wonder if Manning will see less playing time at season's end with the Broncos, presumably, having nothing to play for.

Seeing that these are fantasy playoff games that Manning could be playing less in, he is too much of a risk to take ahead of McCoy and Peterson in this draft.

2. LeSean McCoy

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McCoy can thank Chip Kelly for taking his draft stock this high.

Original Pick: Arian Foster

Fantasy Points: 61 

Positional Scoring Rank: 1

Matched with a head coach in Chip Kelly who actually isn't allergic to running the ball, McCoy has seen his draft stock skyrocket after posting 515 total yards through his first three games.

Still, McCoy has already succumbed to injury and, while it may not be serious, it remains to be seen how he will hold up physically with his touches on track to reach career-high levels.

Furthermore, there is the question of how many touchdowns McCoy can turn into scores.

Of his 40 career touchdowns, half of them came in his breakout 2011 season.

So, while I do expect McCoy to increase his touchdown output going forward, the increase won't be enough to supplant Adrian Peterson at the top of this draft.

1. Adrian Peterson

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As long as he's healthy, Peterson's distinction as the top fantasy player isn't in danger.

Original Pick: Adrian Peterson

Fantasy Points: 50 

Positional Scoring Rank: 3

While he's not on the record-breaking pace he outlined before the season, Peterson has done more than enough to warrant his selection as the No. 1 pick in this draft.

Yes, the same negatives are present. Christian Ponder can't throw and Minnesota's defense is very suspect.

Still, with Peterson's 330 total yards and five scores netting him 50 fantasy points through the first three games, it's clear that nothing short of injury will knock Peterson off his perch atop fantasy football drafts.