Houston Texans: Wade Phillips and His Third-Year Defenses

The date was Jan. 5, 2011. In the eyes of Houston Texans fans, it represents the turning point in the fortunes of their favorite team. 

On that fateful day, Wade Phillips was hired as defensive coordinator. It may have been followed by other significant personnel moves like the signing of free-agent cornerback Johnathan Joseph and the drafting of defensive end J.J. Watt. But when son of Bum was added to the staff, there was reason to believe things would start changing for the better.

The situation could not get much worse as far as stopping the Texans' opponents was concerned. Under the previous jobholder Frank Bush, the defense was ranked at the bottom of the league in most every category in 2010. That dismal performance derailed all the hopes fostered by the franchise’s first winning season in 2009. 

Phillips succeeded beyond expectations in his first season. The defense was second in yardage allowed and fourth in points allowed, and was a big reason why the Texans won the AFC South title for the first time. 

There were skeptics of this one-year turnaround, among them the former AFC South blogger for B/R, Nate Dunlevy. In his article Houston Texans Defense Will Collapse in Year Two Under Wade Phillips, Nate laid out his case. The numbers seemed pretty convincing: in five out of seven instances Phillip’s squads allowed more points than their first year. 

Team	Years	Points Rank Years 1-2-3	Change Year 2	Change Year 3
New Orleans	1981-83	24-8-12	+16	-4
Philadelphia	1986-88	12-25-14	-13	+11
Denver	1989-91	1-23-3	-22	+20
Buffalo	1995-97	12-6-23	+6	-17
San Diego	2004-06	11-13-7	-2	+6
Dallas	2007-09	13-20-2	-7	+18
Houston	2011-13	4-9-?	-5	?
Source: Pro Football Reference

For our purposes, year three for six of the seven teams highlighted in the article is listed in this chart. The 2002-03 Atlanta Falcons are missing because Phillips did not spend a third year with them. Please be aware the 2003 Falcons dropped to 30th in points allowed from eighth the prior season. 

MDC of the Battle Red Blog responded with a differing view titled Past As Prologue: Wade Phillips, Year Two. He referred to the specific circumstances of each season in order to give some context for the outcomes of year two. A look back through NFL history shows there were mitigating factors. 

Players strikes in both 1982 and 1987 clearly affected those seasons. The 1982 strike lasted 57 days and reduced the 16-game schedule to just nine games. The 1987 strike was 24 days in length, but involved replacement players taking the field in Weeks 4-6 in what became a 15-game schedule. 

Philadelphia Eagles head coach Buddy Ryan insisted the team run his 46 defense with a 4-3 front seven. This took Phillips well out of his comfort zone of the 3-4 defense he had coached his entire career.

The 1990 Denver Broncos had a smattering of injuries on defense combined with the hangover of losing three out of the last four Super Bowls. 

The list goes on. The addition of linebacker Chris Spielman solidified the middle for the 1996 Buffalo Bills and helps explain their jump in effectiveness. The 2005 San Diego Chargers allowed one more point but fell two spots. The 2008 Dallas Cowboys led the NFL with 59 sacks but all that pressure caused just eight interceptions.

Their disagreement boils down to something along the lines of nature vs. nurture. Dunlevy contends it is in Phillips’ nature that he "is just too lax" and "smart, but not meticulous." MDC would argue the proper environment is essential to nurture any situation, particular one as volatile as professional football. 

What happened in 2012 seems to prove both of them right. The Texans gave up 331 points as opposed to 278 in 2011, which supports Dunlevy’s thesis. To explain how the loss of a critical player could impact an entire unit, MDC stated, “An injury to Johnathan Joseph would certainly change a whole lot about the defense.” 

This turned out to be a prophetic observation, as a double-sports hernia hampered Joseph’s play for most of the year. The effect was compounded by the absence of Brian Cushing, one of the top-three inside linebackers in the NFL and their emotional leader. 

Cushing tore his ACL by a legal cut-block that is also known as a peel back. This type of play is now banned by the league. It did not even draw a flag during the game because it did not violate the letter of the law. The offender, Matt Slauson of the New York Jets, was eventually fined $10,000 in one of those message-sending moves by the league office. 

As MDC noted, the loss of a single player can strike at the heart of a team. The 1997 Buffalo Bills shows what happens when you lose two: The defense fell 17 spots after Spielman had a career-ending neck injury in Week 2. The retirement of Hall of Fame quarterback Jim Kelly in the offseason made matters worse when his replacements threw 25 interceptions. 

What does the chart above say about the prospects of Coach Phillips and his charges in 2013? There was noticeable improvement in four of the six year threes. Does that translate to a 67 percent chance the Texans defense will follow that trend? 

Joseph and Cushing have mended, but the preseason showed both have some rust to knock off before they can play like their old selves. 

Defensive ends J.J. Watt and Antonio Smith are sure things. The cast of characters at outside linebacker are another story.

Whitney Mercilus needs to establish himself in his second year just like Shawn Merriman did with 17 sacks in 2006. Or maybe someone else lends Watt a hand the way defensive tackle Jerome Brown pitched in with 10.5 sacks in 1988 to take the load off Reggie White.

Ed Reed brings a measure of experience and success unmatched by any other free agent in the Gary Kubiak era. He also brings a pair of damaged 35-year-old hips, one of which was discovered after he signed on the dotted line. 

Reed insists the kick thrown by a nearly prone Tom Brady in the AFC Championship Game led to the torn labrum that required surgery. A totally weird play that could not stop the top safety of the last decade from helping his team claim the Lombardi Trophy. 

The gap between fourth and ninth in the 2012 defensive standings was 42 points allowed. If less than a field goal per game is all that prevents the Texans from venturing into new territory, the record shows that with enough support from his players, Wade Phillips can take them there.