NBA Free Agents 2013: High-Profile Signings That Won't Yield Major Success

No one can blame the Houston Rockets for pursuing Dwight Howard with reckless abandon. He's worth every bit of the four-year, $88 million deal he signed with the team. But with Howard, James Harden and Chandler Parsons as the team's best players, the Rockets are still just the fourth-best team in the Western Conference—at best.

Houston still doesn't have a point guard whose game meshes well with the most important parts of the team. 

The ideal point guard for D12, Harden and Parsons is someone who excels playing off the ball. That certainly isn't Jeremy Lin. In the 2012-13 season, only 39.4 percent of Lin's made field goals were assisted.

Obviously he's a point guard who handles the ball predominantly, which would be fine for this Rockets team if he were a better spot-up shooter, but Lin is just a decent three-point shooter in any capacity. Last season, he knocked down just 33.9 percent of his shots from long range.

Playing off Howard creates tons of opportunities from beyond the arc, likewise with Harden, if he is being aggressive and attacking the basket. Lin can be a solid point guard, but his skill set doesn't fit this team's makeup anymore.

Aside from their offensive imperfections, the Rockets are still a team that allowed 102 points per game last season. Howard is a great defensive player, but the Rockets can't count on him to change their fortunes on that end of the floor alone.

Last year in Los Angeles with a more accomplished defensive group, Howard and the Lakers allowed 100.7 points per game. 

The Rockets will be a better team than they were in 2012—there is no question about that. However, anyone who is expecting the team to play for an NBA championship this season is going to be disappointed.

The Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors are all as good as the Rockets—or better.

Other big names whose teams won't make a big splash:

Monta Ellis, Dallas Mavericks

It doesn't seem like things turned out the way Ellis intended. Not only did he gamble on finding a market that would pay him equal or better than the $11 million he opted out of with the Milwaukee Bucks, but Ellis also didn't land with a team with a much better shot at contending than the Milwaukee team he left.

Ellis signed a deal with the Dallas Mavericks that will pay him $25 or $30 million over three years. Even if the deal tops out, he's still going to lose $1 million this season.

Perhaps that would have been easier to deal with if the Mavs had a legitimate chance to make a run at the NBA championship. As it stands, the team isn't even a sure bet to make the playoffs.

The Rockets, Thunder, Clippers, Grizzlies, Warriors and San Antonio Spurs would figure to be better. That will likely leave the Mavs fighting with the Lakers, Denver Nuggets, Portland Trail Blazers and possibly the New Orleans Pelicans for the last two playoff spots in the Western Conference.

Ellis and the Mavs likely had bigger plans.

J.R. Smith, New York Knicks

Everything the New York Knicks and Smith do is high profile, but re-signing the reigning sixth man of the year was really much ado about nothing. That's not to say that Smith isn't talented and capable of explosive scoring binges during the regular season, but this team has higher aspirations.

The Knicks have a huge payroll and the star power that creates championship expectations. New York is also looking for a way to appease Carmelo Anthony to entice him to re-sign in 2014.

With so much hanging in the balance, the Knicks weren't in the position to make much of a splash because of their enormous payroll.

It was made clear in the team's second-round series against the Indiana Pacers that the roster wasn't good enough to challenge the best in the conference.

Smith made just 28 percent of his shots against the Pacers. When Paul George was making life tough for Anthony and the Knicks desperately needed another scorer, Smith let them down.

With an already-aging roster a year older, the Knicks brought back the same cast and added oft-injured and defense-resistant Andreas Bargnani from the Toronto Raptors.

There is no way the Knicks are markedly better than they were last season. Meanwhile, the Pacers got better with experience and smart additions like Luis Scola; the Chicago Bulls improved with the addition of Mike Dunleavy Jr., and they will get Derrick Rose back. 

The Brooklyn Nets made serious moves to win now with the additions of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Jason Terry and Andrei Kirilenko.

Then there's the NBA champion Miami Heat.

Smith's signing garnered more attention than it'll ultimately be worth. The Knicks are still just middle of the pack in the Eastern Conference.

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