UFC Fight Night 26 Preview: Chael Sonnen vs. Shogun Rua Head-to-Toe Breakdown

Chael Sonnen will make one more appearance at 205 pounds before returning to the middleweight division for what could be his final run at a UFC championship.

At UFC Fight Night 26, Sonnen will meet Mauricio "Shogun" Rua in the main event of the UFC debut event on Fox Sports 1. Both Sonnen and Rua lost their last fights and are hoping to get back into the win column this Saturday.

In July, Sonnen announced on Fuel TV's UFC Tonight that his bout with Rua would be his final showing in the light heavyweight class before returning to a 185-pound division that saw him compete for a title on two occasions.

Will Sonnen carry some momentum into his transition?

It's time to take a look at whether Sonnen or Rua is more likely to have their hand raised this weekend. 

Striking: Rua Offense vs. Sonnen Defense

With 18 knockouts over the course of his career, Mauricio Rua is as dangerous as any when standing. 

The Brazilian has stopped five UFC champions with strikes. With powerful hooks and damaging knees, Rua can end a fight from all distances. 

However, he may find it surprisingly difficult to hit Chael Sonnen.

Despite knockout losses in his past two fights, Sonnen gets hit less than any opponent Rua has beaten inside the Octagon aside from Lyoto Machida. Sonnen is a master at timing opposing attacks and ducking them for takedown attempts. He'll no doubt be looking to do that against Rua.

Before finishing off his adversaries, Rua often looks to immobilize them with leg kicks. Against a wrestler like Sonnen, "Shogun" may have to stray from leg kicks, as they could provide takedown opportunities. 

Striking: Sonnen Offense vs. Rua Defense

Nobody is going to mistake Chael Sonnen as one of the best strikers on the UFC roster, but he can be effective in spots against Mauricio Rua.

Rua throws almost all of his strikes with power. His looping hooks can be countered by straight punches from a forward-moving fighter like Sonnen. It shows in the stats, as Rua has been hit by 50 percent of strikes thrown by his opponents.

That hardly means Sonnen can knock Rua out cold. "Shogun" ate some of Dan Henderson's best shots over five rounds. However, Sonnen can get Rua to respect his boxing, which will allow the takedowns to come even more easily. 

Takedowns: Rua Offense vs. Sonnen Defense

It's not likely Mauricio Rua plans on looking for takedowns against Chael Sonnen.

While "Shogun" has scored at least one takedown in his past three fights, the Brazilian is going to want to make the most of every second he is standing with Sonnen.

When he does look to take opponents down, Rua usually does so from the clinch. It's not likely Sonnen will be looking to clinch much with Rua. The former middleweight title challenger will be shooting for clean double-legs to avoid getting caught in Rua's thai plum.

Takedowns: Sonnen Offense vs. Rua Defense

Since rejoining the UFC roster in February 2009, Chael Sonnen has only been shut out in the takedown department by Jon Jones and Demian Maia.

Sonnen is excellent at pressuring opponents and timing his shots when they are loading up for strikes. Against a power striker like Rua, Sonnen should have no problem countering punches and leg kicks with takedowns.

Being taken down on 66 percent of opponent takedown attempts, Rua is sure to end up on his back frequently in this matchup.

Grappling: Rua Offense vs. Sonnen Defense

Although Mauricio Rua has only one submission win, he's capable of causing Chael Sonnen a lot of headaches on the ground.

The Brazilian frequently uses leg locks for reversals or escapes. However, those may be out of play against Sonnen, who does a good job of keeping pressure on the chest of his opponents to prevent them from creating the space needed for that type of attack on the ground.

Rua has threatened past opponents with triangle chokes on multiple occasions, though. It is well noted that Sonnen has a bad habit of allowing opponents to isolate one of his arms with wrist control, having been caught in a combined four triangles and armbars inside the Octagon.

"Shogun" may not have a great history of submission victories, but this is the type of matchup that could allow him to show how underrated his grappling is.

Grappling: Sonnen Offense vs. Rua Defense

In many ways, Chael Sonnen's grappling offense is defensive.

Sonnen throws a lot of punches from the top, but he's much more focused on his positioning while throwing those strikes than on inflicting fight-ending damage with them.

The former middleweight also has a tendency to sit in the full-guard of his opponents. While he has become skilled at controlling his foes from that position, it's what has left him susceptible to submissions throughout his career.

Since Sonnen has little chance of stopping Rua with ground-and-pound or submission, he's really going to have to work to pass the guard or hope to evade submissions for five rounds. 

Intangibles

Mauricio Rua and Chael Sonnen have been here before.

The former UFC light heavyweight champion and three-time title challenger are familiar with both five-round fights and the spotlight that comes with them.

Neither fighter has been inactive for a long period of time heading into this matchup, so there shouldn't be too many intangibles that will come into play on Saturday.

Prediction

Rua defeats Sonnen by submission in the second round.

Whether it be via an ill-advised Rua leg kick or well-timed level change and double-leg, Sonnen is getting this fight to the ground early.

However, Rua is a more dangerous grappler than many give him credit for being. If he can't use leg locks as sweeps against Sonnen, he'll still be able to threaten with triangle chokes should he maintain full-guard.

It may take a couple rounds for Sonnen to make the mistake, but he's going to leave a window open. It seems he always does against jiu-jitsu practitioners at all levels.

Statistics via FightMetric.com.