The "What Ifs" of Duke Basketball: Mason Plumlee

Since the departure of Josh McRoberts, the Blue Devils have had to do without an inside offensive presence.

McRoberts averaged 13 points per game in his final season with Duke. Last season, all three of the Blue Devil's big men (Lance Thomas, Brian Zoubek, and Miles Plumlee) combined to average just over 11 points. Without an offensive threat in the post, Duke has been completely reliant on its perimeter-oriented players to score, forcing the Blue Devils to live and die by the three-point line.

To Mike Krzyzewski's credit, he's done wonders to compensate for Duke's lack of low-post offense in the past two seasons. But in their Sweet 16 loss to Villanova, it couldn't have been more obvious how badly the Blue Devils need a reliable scoring option in the paint, especially when the threes aren't falling.

Enter Mason Plumlee.

He's the most promising post player to come to Duke since McRoberts, and his game is eerily similar to the former Blue Devil. Like McRoberts, Plumlee is versatile and mobile, handles the ball exceptionally well for a 6'11" player, and has leaping ability that allows him to finish above the rim with ease (he's also from Indiana, just like McRoberts—weird).

Plumlee showed off his athleticism in the McDonald's All-American dunk contest, and he has performed well in a number of talent-filled exhibition games since the end of his senior season.

If the Top 25 recruit can make an immediate impact in the Blue Devils' offense next season, averaging close to double figures in scoring, Duke will be a different, and better, team next year.  

Of course, that's a big "if."

What If Plumlee Becomes a Reliable Post Option?

Duke's guard issues might be at the forefront of fans' minds right now, thanks in large part to the buzz surrounding John Wall's recruitment and the departure of Gerald Henderson to the NBA.

If Wall doesn't come to Duke, the Blue Devils will almost certainly need to go with a bigger lineup to keep at least one guard coming off the bench. Post play will prove more important than ever.

Brian Zoubek looked to be developing into a reliable post option by the middle of last season, but as conference play heated up, he became less and less effective.

Lance Thomas reclaimed his previous starting role as Duke's definitive undersized big man, but after three years of playing at the five spot, it's clear that Thomas is not likely to be an effective low-post scoring option.

Miles Plumlee has the upside to contribute, but his development was slower than fans hoped, and he barely saw action toward the end of the season.

With Thomas, Zoubek, and the older Plumlee proving ineffective in the paint last season, Mason Plumlee looks like he could be Duke's best option in the post next year, and many believe he will start from day one.

He's not a Shelden Williams-type player who will bully other post players around, and it's unlikely that he will be a scoring sensation right off the bat since he won't be one of the top three scoring options (especially if Wall comes).

But Mason won't be asked to score 20 points and grab 10 boards per game.

If he can average just around 10 points per game, stay out of foul trouble, and be aggressive on the offensive glass, Duke will be a much improved team.

Having a reliable scoring option down low will free up the perimeter players for more open shots. It will keep defenses honest, making sure they can't overplay the perimeter like they recently have. Plumlee's quickness and above-the-rim capabilities should force defenses to play him tight, unless they want to give away easy alley-oops every time they ignore him (he can catch a ball above the square on the backboard).

Plumlee won't be asked to be dominant next year, but if he can just prove to be consistent and dangerous, the Blue Devils will have a piece they've been missing for years.

What If Plumlee Struggles?

The Blue Devils will be in trouble if Plumlee doesn't establish himself as a significant post presence.

If John Wall goes elsewhere, the Blue Devils will be more reliant on size than they have been in years past.

Kyle Singler will likely need to spend significant minutes playing the small forward position, meaning that someone else will need to step up inside the paint to grab rebounds and score. After three years struggling in the post, it's unlikely that Thomas or Zoubek will be the answer.

Furthermore, Duke will be a significantly slower team next year (unless Wall comes, of course). The Blue Devils won't have the guard depth to run teams up and down the floor relentlessly, so they will need to be able to score in the halfcourt set to be effective. A reliable, offensively-minded post player would do wonders to free up Jon Scheyer and Singler on the perimeter.

If Mason does not prove to be a contributor next year, the Blue Devils will be hurting for offense and rebounding.

From what he has shown, he has all the tools to remedy many of Duke's low post deficiencies. If he can embrace his role and develop into a reliable option, the Blue Devils will have a chance to be atop the ACC once again.