Tiger, Phil, Ernie: Threats and Dark Horses for the British Open

There are close to 160 players entered in next week’s Open Championship at Muirfield, which hosted its first version of golf’s oldest tournament in 1892.

Despite the numbers, there are relatively few who are likely to rise to the leaderboard, much less hoist the claret jug on Sunday. Many players farther down the money list elect not to spend the money necessary to travel to Scotland because as has been said, you almost have to finish fourth to pay for the trip. Of course, that was said 20 years ago, so maybe not in today’s money.

Looking at the whole field, we can categorize them as Threats-to-Win, Possibles-to-Win and Total-Dark-Horses, albeit with skills. It’s unlikely to be a surprise winner, based on who has won in the past. There have been several famous first time Open Champions who were successful at Muirfield including Gary Player( 1959), Jack Nicklaus (1966), Nick Faldo ( 1987 and1992) and Ernie Els (2002).

But there have been others who won there as a second or third major like Tom Watson who won his third of five Open Championships at the storied course. Lee Trevino defended his 1971 championship by winning in 1972.

Some, like Tiger Woods in 2002, have been defeated at Muirfield by an unlucky draw of weather. He shot an 81 in the third round.   

Dark Horses for this year’s Open Championship include Fred Couples and Angel Cabrera. They both have power, and if a part time golfer can win a major, it would be one of these two. Dark Horses for a different reason include recent winner Billy Horschel and Rickie Fowler who played so well in 2011 in horrible weather. Nicolas Colsaerts, Peter Hanson and Jason Day also fall into this category because they are good, strong and, yet, unexpected.

In the Possibles-to-Win category, Rory McIlroy, with his inconsistent year to date, tops the list because as the PGA Tour likes to say, anything’s possible. Bill Haas, Francesco Molinari, Ian Poulter, and Nick Watney also fall into this category. If they have a good week, any one of them could win his first major. They have the game, but they just don’t have the hardware.    

Finally, there are the real Threats-to-Win. Even though he hasn’t been what he hoped at the U.S. Open and the Masters, Tiger Woods still has to top the list. He’s a lot of majors ahead of all active players. Assuming his elbow is healed up, assuming he doesn’t twist something in that typical Open Championship fescue rough, assuming he can get the green speed down, he has another shot at No. 15.

But there are others who want it just as much, including already major champs Louis Oosthuizen, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Adam Scott, Charl Schwartzel and Graeme McDowell, just off his victory in France. They have already proven they can win at the highest level. Once they win one, they get greedy. They want more.

In the Wanna-Win-My-First-Major category, we have world class challengers Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia, Dustin Johnson, Matt Kuchar and Lee Westwood. There’s no way to explain how much a victory next week would mean to them. The questions are will they get the luck, will they have the weather, will they have the nerve and will their games be on. As everyone who plays golf knows, some days you can’t hit a bad shot and some days you can’t find the fairway, even at The Old Course at St. Andrews.

Anyone else will be a total surprise. For those who don’t believe that a surprise winner is possible there are just two words: Ben Curtis. It’s the Open Championship. Anything can happen.

Kathy Bissell is a Golf Writer for Bleacher Report. Unless otherwise noted, all quotes were obtained first-hand or from official interview materials from the USGA, PGA Tour or PGA of America.