Great Expectations: Buffalo Bills 2009 Season

The Buffalo Bills have made many moves this offseason, but at season's end, what will they have to show for it? Will they be watching the playoffs from home, or will they finally reward their fans with a playoff trip of their own? Let's examine the 2009 expectations for the Buffalo Bills.

The Buffalo Bills made plenty of noise to begin the 2008 season.

After blowing out the Seattle Seahawks in Week One 34-10, they won four of five to begin the season five and one.

From that point on, the Bills only compiled two wins against the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos, and walked quietly into the offseason.

Their third straight 7 and 9 season left the Bills out of the playoffs for the ninth consecutive year, the longest current streak in the NFL.

Then the offseason hit. The Buffalo Bills shifted from their usual dormant state during the non playing months and completed one of their most active offseasons to date. Signing the likes of Terrell Owens, Geoff Hangartner, Drayton Florence, and Dominic Rhodes started things off with a bang. 

Before the Draft, the Bills let Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters pack his bags and move to Philadelphia in exchange for three draft picks.

The Buffalo Bills draft was centered around defense and the re-tooling of their offensive line.They drafted pass rush specialist Aaron Maybin number eleven overall, and drafted C Eric Wood and T/G Andy Levitre to bring youth and solid fundamentals to their offensive line.

Four members of the secondary were selected in; Jairus Byrd, Nic Harris, Cary Harris, and Ellis Lankster, although Nic Harris is expected to play outside linebacker in the NFL. They grabbed TE Shawn Nelson in the fourth round, which many consider the steal of the draft.

First, I'm going to examine the two most important positions on the Bills, the QB and RB, and give their projected stats.

Expectations

The 2009 Buffalo Bills tried their best to upgrade their team without overpaying in the offseason, or reaching in the draft.

Edwards the Key

Much of the Bills offseason moves have been centered around the development of Trent Edwards.

The third year quarterback is entering an important time in his career, when the "youth card" won't be as easily pulled by the coaching staff or the press when he makes mistakes.

Whenever you re-tool your offensive line, bring in a future Hall of Fame wide receiver, draft a pass catching tight end, and sign a multi faceted scat back, it's pretty obvious your trying to speed up the development of your quarterback.

They realize with more weapons at his disposal, Edwards could become a franchise quarterback that can lead their team somewhere it hasn't been in a decade, the playoffs.

What will we see out of Trent Edwards in 2009?

Edwards possesses great knowledge of the game, has a quick release, reads through his progressions well, and has an underrated arm.

His weaknesses come when, just like many other quarterbacks, he's rattled. (see Cleveland Monday night football game). He can be hesitant and feels like any throw may be a bad one. Whether that was due to a lack of talent around him or not, we will find out this year, with the weapons around him locked and loaded, ready to go.

I don't see him ever becoming a prolific Peyton Manning-esque passer, but undoubtedly he has the potential and skill to develop into a great game manager and winner.

Expect his numbers to increase solely due to the additions in the draft as well as free agency.

The line has been the biggest question coming from the national media, but I can't envision any significant drop off from a lackluster bunch in 2008.

Projected Stats: 15 games, 3,200 yards, 19Tds, 9Ints

Running Back Trio

Expect Marshawn Lynch to eclipse the 1,000 yard mark for the third straight season after his suspension. He ran behind a line that wasn't in sync for most of the year, and the new line may be a better run blocking corp than last season's group.

His hard nose running style makes him seemingly a good enough number one option on any team, and his hunger to run even harder should show after his early season suspension. He'll remain a threat in the passing game, but with Rhodes and Jackson viable receiving targets for Edwards expect his numbers to dip a bit, albeit not drastically.

Projected Stats: 13 games, 1,100 yards, 13Tds  35 catches, 250 yards, 2Tds

The rest of the Bills backfield should push the team's rushing total to close to 2,000 total yards. With Jackson as the feature back for the first three games and Rhodes as a capable back-up, the Bills running attack should be the strength of the offense.

Receiving Threats

As far as receiving goes, Trent Edwards should be drooling.

He has a different type of receiver at his beck and call, with an expanded playbook. Owens provides the occasional deep threat with great possession capabilities.

Evans can finally let loose down the field, and should remain Edwards' favorite target. Josh Reed stays as a great underneath option—a chain mover. Wild card Roscoe Parrish is lightning in a bottle and is a big play waiting to happen.

Shawn Nelson, though only a rookie, brings a little more speed and soft hands to the seam route. Expect the receiving corp to have a much better season as a whole, all because of the man named Owens.

Defensive Priorities

Switching to the other side of the ball, the Bills defense must improve if the Bills want to be serious contenders in the AFC in 2009. Ranked near the bottom of the league in sacks last season, I envision the Bills being a bit more potent at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, though not significantly better.

Maybin unquestionably helps on the outside, and Paul Posluszny should become more of a play maker rather than just a leader in his third season.

The secondary should be the strongest suit of the entire team. Although former undrafted free agent and starting corner back Jabari Greer was signed by New Orleans in March, the secondary is still an extremely athletic and youthful bunch.

Terrence McGee will line up against opposing team's number one wide out, as he brings the cover corner skills with adequate play making ability to the table. The other spots are up for grabs.

Leodis McKelvin showed flashes of brilliance last year, but also looked lost on some occasions. He's penciled in as the other starter alongside McGee. With Reggie Corner and Drayton Florence inserted into the secondary, the nickel and dime positions will be solid against those four and five receiver sets.

At the safety position, fourth year starter Donte Whitner will remain the leader of the secondary although he hasn't exactly lived up to his draft hype in the play making department. This is where rookie Jairus Byrd steps in.

Play making was his middle name in college. He snagged 17 INTs at Oregon and is your typical "center fielder". Bryan Scott should provide his under appreciated depth as he almost serves as another linebacker in the box.

George Wilson, a converted wide receiver, brings the vocal leadership needed not only on defense but on the stellar special teams unit. Solid group overall.

Special Special Teams

As alluded to, the special teams unit is truly...well, special. Though Roscoe Parrish was apparently dangled as trade bait during the draft, he remains on the roster, and again his presence will be felt most on punt returns.

Bobby April is the reigning Special Teams Coach of the Year and deservedly so. McKelvin now has a year under his belt and should only become better at reading holes to utilize his great elusiveness and speed. Not a whole lot of change, so expect about the same. Fun to watch.

Quick Prediction

After all that, offense, defense, and special teams, what does this all mean? I expect the Bills to compete for the AFC East Title and finish nine and seven while making the playoffs in the final weeks of the season.

What's Needed to Exceed

In order for the Bills to exceed expectations a few things need to happen. First and foremost, the line must gel quickly. Whether it's flashy or not, all football games are won and lost in the trenches.

If rookies Eric Wood and Andy Levitre can man their respective guard positions, and Langston Walker can make the move to left tackle without a huge drop off in protection, the Bills will have a start to something good.

As stated above, Trent Edwards will need to grow as a consistent passer. His accuracy and quick delivery aren't an issue; it's the confidence that sometimes lacks.

If he can let the game come to him, and simply hit the open man, while keeping Terrell Owens happy, the Bills may overachieve. He's got enough targets to choose from now.

Similar to the offensive line, the receivers must get in sync quickly as well. Each guy has to find his own niche and grow in it, giving Edwards more options. If Owens, Evans, and Nelson can stretch the field, while Reed, Fine, and Roscoe remain viable underneath guys, the Bills can exceed expectations.

The running backs have to just play their own game. If there's any part of the team I think will have the easiest time overachieving, it's this group.

All three guys are hard runners, and love catching the ball out of the backfield. It's a perfect situation because Edwards loves throwing to his running backs. Barring any significant injuries, this group probably will exceed expectations this year, or at least the expectations should be raised.

The defense needs to get to the quarterback. Simple as that. The ripple effect that occurs after a good pass rush is on, touches the whole defense. If the "Aarons" can apply enough pressure on the outside, and Marcus Stroud can wreak havoc from the middle, with Kawika Mitchell being more effective on his outside blitzes, everyone benefits.

The secondary would see more hurried passes thrown their way, and stacking up against the run would become much easier. As shown with their first pick in the draft, the Bills have put the onus on accumulating more defensive pressure in 2009.

Obstacles Standing in the Way

To begin under center, their are some obvious things that could get in Trent Edwards' way. Ask Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb, or Tony Romo what those could be. I'm a believer that Owens wasn't as disruptive as the press made him out to be, but he most definitely can rattle his quarterback's psyche.

If Owens isn't seeing the ball thrown his way the same amount, or more than Lee Evans, there will be problems.

On the offensive line, if the rookies can't hold up against the big 3-4 nose tackles of the AFC East, the Bills could be looking at another tough go at their division schedule in 2009.

With the likes of Kris Jenkins, Jason Ferguson, and Vince Wilfork anchoring opposing defensive lines, the rookies' task won't be easy.

If Langston Walker doesn't transition well to blocking the speed rushers of the right defensive end position, Edwards will be on his back more than last year, which is never good.

TO wouldn't be too happy about that either.

If the running backs can't get into a rhythm because of the three back system, things will get rough. Running back duos are now commonplace in the NFL, but not many times do triplets share spots behind the quarterback.

Though they could work great together, three guys unhappy about sharing the load with two others doesn't equate to a successful running attack.

The defense needs to get to the quarterback. Oh wait, I already said that. I've said it twice because it's that important.

If Maybin is only worked in situationally and is mediocre at best, not causing a lot of big plays, the defense will suffer.

Aaron Schobel needs help, because he may not return to his Pro Bowl form after his nagging foot injury. The talented but young secondary isn't good enough to allow opposing quarterbacks to have all day to get rid of the football. If Keith Ellison doesn't bulk up and man the strong side linebacker spot with more aggression, teams could have a field day running the ball.

There you have it, the expectations for the 2009 Buffalo Bills, with details on how they could exceed those expectations and snippets that may lead to the Bills once again falling short of the playoffs.