UFC 161 Preview: Odds Analysis for Evans vs. Henderson Main Card

The late, great George Steinbrenner once said, "You can't beat any kind of gambling because they have the odds." 

Well, we're going to try anyway. 

UFC 161 is set for this Saturday, June 15, in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. The pay-per-view main card is headlined by perennial light heavyweight contenders Dan Henderson and Rashad Evans, the latter being a former UFC champion. The former's last title was that of the Strikeforce 205-pound champion before that division and eventually the promotion folded. 

While the card has suffered due to the loss of the original co-main event, which featured Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, at least the main event promises to be a competitive, even matchup. 

At least that's what the betting lines across several sportsbooks suggest.

The coming slides will examine the betting line for the main event as well as the four other UFC 161 main card fights. If you're looking for an odds piece focused on predictions, Sean Smith has it for you.

This piece will focus on the accuracy of the odds and what odds hold the most value. 

All statistics are courtesy of FightMetric.com. Odds are courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook.

Pat Barry vs. Shawn Jordan

Betting Odds: Pat Barry (-120) vs. Shawn Jordan (-110)

The opening fight of the main card features heavyweights Pat Barry and Shawn Jordan in a pick 'em matchup. Either way you go, the payout is essentially going to be the same—if you pick the winner, of course. 

These odds are just about where they need to be, although I think Barry should garner a little more respect in terms of the line. He has fought seven more times in the UFC and is a better striker than Jordan, given his extensive kickboxing background.

However, Barry has also struggled against better competition. With a 5-5 record, he has never defeated any fighter with a UFC record better than .500. And two of his losses came against fighters with UFC records below .500. 

Combined, Barry's opponents have compiled a record of 35-38-1 (1 NC). However, there have been a few instances—the Mirko Filipović and Cheick Kongo fights come to mind—when Barry let a win slip through his fingers. He had Kongo dead to rights in their matchup, but the now-former UFC heavyweight finished Barry with a strike thrown from the brink of unconsciousness. 

Barry may not have any quality wins in the UFC and certainly has his share of bad losses (see: Tim Hague). However, Jordan hasn't exactly faced top-tier talent himself.

At 2-1 in the UFC, Jordan holds victories over Oli Thompson and Mike Russow. The former, no longer employed with the promotion, is far from a quality opponent, while Russow was a good win for Jordan. Russow has a UFC record of 4-2, including perhaps the greatest comeback knockout of all time against Todd Duffee at UFC 110. 

But perhaps the best way to determine the correctness of these odds is to look at the common opponents between these heavyweights. After all, they have each fought Kongo and Lavar Johnson.

Barry lost to Kongo via knockout. He had Kongo in trouble and then walked into a Hail Mary strike that sent him swirling into a foggy oblivion. Johnson did the same thing to "HD." 

Meanwhile, Jordan lost to Kongo via decision, while he defeated Johnson via submission, albeit not in the UFC. 

With that in mind, there is some value to be found in Jordan, but the odds seem to favor Barry due to his striking prowess. 

Jordan took some big shots from Russow at UFC on Fox 6 in the first round but managed to dominate the second round as his opponent tired. It's unlikely Barry, a small heavyweight, will tire as easily, and his striking will remain dangerous as long as this fight stays standing. Throw in the fact that he has defended 80 percent of the 20 takedown attempts against him, and it seems appropriate that Barry is the slight favorite. 

Still, the odds suggest that Jordan has at least a moderately good chance of getting this fight to the mat and rightly so. 

Final Thought

Given that this is a pick 'em fight, it depends on whether or not you believe Barry can keep this fight standing. If he keeps it standing, I don't see how he loses. If Jordan gets the fight to the mat in the first or second round, I have trouble seeing how Barry wins. 

The odds reflect that this fight could go either way, and I think making this a pick 'em is appropriate. 

Alexis Davis vs. Rosi Sexton

Betting Odds: Alexis Davis (-400) vs. Rosi Sexton (+300)

Unfortunately, between the two fighters, FightMetric.com has analyzed just four total fights, including Sexton's loss to Gina Carano from nearly seven years ago. 

But the odds tell us this is Alexis Davis' fight, placing Sexton as a steep 3-to-1 underdog in this contest. 

So here's what we do know.

Davis is 5-1 in her last six with four of those wins coming by way of stoppage. The lone defeat came against Sarah Kaufman after the judges handed the former champion a majority decision win. 

Sexton is also 5-1 in her last six fights, with the lone loss coming against Zoila Gurgel via knockout. 

We also know that Davis is far younger at 28 years of age. Sexton is seven years older. 

As with many women's MMA bouts in the UFC, it's hard to tell who has had the more quality career or notched the better wins, which makes me wonder why this line favors Davis. For the record, I think she takes the win, but at -400, the value just isn't there. 

Final Thought

I'm staying away from this pick. Each fighter has fought in organizations of note, such as Strikeforce, Bellator and Invicta FC, but I can't admit to knowing enough about Davis or Sexton to feel secure in making a strong push.

Again, I like Davis here, but as a 4-to-1 favorite, I don't see much value unless you're tossing her into a parlay. 

Still, given the fact that Davis' lone loss in her last six fights was a close decision defeat at the hands of former Strikeforce champion Sarah Kaufman, these odds aren't too outrageous. 

Ryan Jimmo vs. Igor Pokrajac

Betting Odds: Ryan Jimmo (-280) vs. Igor Pokrajac (+220)

Ryan Jimmo has spent 15:07 in the cage during his two-fight UFC career. One fight accounted for 15 minutes, the other for just seven seconds. Pokrajac has spent a little more time in the Octagon—almost six times as much—but still comes in at over a 2-to-1 underdog. 

And appropriately so. 

Jimmo has displayed a vicious striking ability in his two fights, bludgeoning Anthony Perosh en route to the aforementioned seven-second victory and dominating James Te Huna in the first round of their UFC on Fuel 7 fight. Although Jimmo lost the Te Huna fight via decision, his ferocity in the opening round makes him a dangerous light heavyweight, especially against his aging opponent.

Pokrajac is 34 years old and winless in his past two outings against Vinny Magalhaes and Joey Beltran. The loss to Beltran was later changed to a no-contest following a failed drug test. 

Meanwhile, Jimmo is coming off his first loss since he dropped his professional debut in 2007. He was on a 17-fight winning streak before Te Huna somehow survived a brutal first round in their matchup. 

Speaking of Te Huna, Pokrajac was decimated by the New Zealander back at UFC 110, although he did remain somewhat competitive up until the knockout. 

The biggest thing for me, however—and probably the biggest reason the odds are in favor of Jimmo—is Pokrajac's track record. He simply hasn't been impressive throughout his UFC career against even average competition. 

He is 4-4 (1 NC) in nine career UFC fights, but his best win came against Krzysztof Soszynski. By the way, has anybody seen Soszynski?

Jimmo's UFC career hasn't exactly featured a murderers' row of competition, but he has displayed flashes of brilliance and is a much more dangerous fighter than Pokrajac. His takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, and his striking accuracy comes in at a whopping 67 percent.

Final Thought

Remember that parlay I mentioned in the previous slide? 

At -280, Jimmo perhaps doesn't hold a significant amount of value by himself, and the odds seem to be banking on Jimmo's cardio holding up, unlike the Te Huna fight. But toss him in with Davis, and you'll at least create some value between the two heavy favorites. 

At more than a 2-to-1 underdog, Pokrajac could reward some risk takers if he manages to land a punch similar to the one that put Soszynski away. I just don't see that happening.

The line doesn't see it either, while recognizing Jimmo as the better fighter. The odds of -280 may seem steep, but it shouldn't after the fight. 

Roy Nelson vs. Stipe Miocic

Betting Odds: Roy Nelson (-275) vs. Stipe Miocic (+215)

Miocic went from fighting UFC newcomer Soa Palelei to fighting UFC veteran Roy Nelson in the final month leading up to UFC 161. And the change in opponent was a big one. 

Nelson is a near 3-to-1 favorite over the younger Miocic, whose line would pay just over 2-to-1 should he win. 

The odds seem to take into account a couple of different factors, including recent history. 

Miocic is coming off a technical knockout loss to Stefan Struve from last September, while Nelson has won his last three fights by knockout. Also, Nelson has fought much better competition. 

Still, while I have gone on record picking Nelson to win this fight, I find myself having doubts.

"Maybe Miocic can get this fight down, just like Mir did," I think to myself. "Maybe the fact that he lands 4.76 significant strikers per minute will allow him to outpoint Nelson, who will be too busy looking for the knockout." 

I think I could talk myself into picking Miocic if I really wanted to. 

But whether or not I think Nelson finds a knockout or Miocic can outpoint the vet doesn't matter. All I know is that this fight is closer than the odds suggest. 

Miocic has a strong wrestling background and stays busy as a striker, which leads me to believe he has at least a decent chance at working a takedown by setting it up with strikes. And history suggests that if a fighter can get out of the first round against Nelson in the UFC, he have a 75 percent chance of winning. 

Nelson, on the other hand, has miserable takedown accuracy (23 percent) and doesn't ever show off his jiu-jitsu background. The best thing he has going for him is that vicious right hand. It's never fun to bet against something so powerful.

Final Thought

Nelson has power, and Miocic is coming off a knockout loss. But I don't love this line. 

As a 2-to-1 underdog, Miocic is talented enough on the feet and on the mat to give Nelson a run for his money. Even after my internal debate, I'm still going with Nelson in this fight, but a Miocic win would hardly shock me. This fight is closer than the line would have you believe. 

Rashad Evans vs. Dan Henderson

Betting Line: Rashad Evans (-130) vs. Dan Henderson (even)

In the second pick 'em fight of the main card, former UFC light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans looks to regain his footing in the 205-pound division against former Strikeforce and Pride champion Dan Henderson. 

For all of this pay-per-view card's shortcomings, at least the main event is intriguing. It's about as even a matchup as one could ask for. 

Both fighters are experienced at the elite level of mixed martial arts and are former champions. Evans has fought Jon Jones and Chuck Liddell in the UFC, while Henderson has fought Anderson Silva, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and Fedor Emelianenko throughout his long career. 

These two have fought elite talent and are elite fighters; however, recently, they have also struggled inside the Octagon.

Henderson is coming off a split-decision loss to Lyoto Machida at UFC 157, while Evans is coming off back-to-back losses to champ Jon Jones and veteran Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Each fighter was on a four-fight winning streak before those losses. 

Overall, Henderson is 6-3, while Evans is 12-3-1 in the UFC. Both men have faced quality opposition. That's why it should come as no surprise that this fight is so close in the sportsbooks. 

Henderson is well-known for his power, including the brutal "H-Bomb" that no one wants to be absorb, while Evans combines a strong wrestling base with a normally quick and explosive striking game. 

For Henderson to win this fight, he'll likely have to finish it within the five rounds. Evans is terrific at outpointing his opponents (except in his last two fights) and is more willing to use his wrestling. He averages twice as many takedowns per fight than Henderson.

Henderson has also been taken down 12 times in nine UFC fights, while Evans has been taken down just 13 times in 16 fights. 

It's difficult to determine who holds the advantage in what category, and the close odds mirror that. Both fighters are talented strikers and strong wrestlers, and each is experienced at the elite level of MMA competition. 

Final Thought

Giving Evans the edge is the correct decision by oddsmakers. He doesn't rely on his power, is a better athlete and will hold a significant speed advantage over Henderson. Meanwhile, "Hendo" does have one-punch knockout power, and Evans has been knocked out before in a five-round affair. 

The odds are spot on in giving Evans the edge—he's a safer play and the fighter I expect to win—while also giving Henderson the respect that he and his right hand deserve.