2013 NBA Mock Draft: Updated Projections for Entire First Round

Another day, another smattering of NBA draft speculation.

With selection day quickly approaching, every NBA team is scrambling to put together the pieces of a puzzle crucial to sustained success. It may be cliché, but the most efficient way to find long-term sustainability is by making smart decisions in the draft.

But every prospect comes with a certain level of risk. Even several of the top-10 prospects in this class have some baggage, including the one with most NBA potential: Kentucky center Nerlens Noel.

It still looks extremely likely that Noel will be the first player off the board on June 27, but that doesn’t mean he’s the obvious choice. Coming off a devastating ACL tear last season, the athletic big man’s NBA future is still very much up in the air.

It’s all just part of the process.

Let’s take a look at latest projections for the 2013 NBA draft and highlight some players whose risk factor may ultimately outweigh their tremendous talent.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky

The Cavs are in a familiar position, holding the No. 1 overall pick for the third time in the last 11 years. But unlike the first two instances, there isn’t a surefire star to be had in this draft class.

Noel certainly has the upside to warrant being the No. 1 selection, but given his recovering knee and very thin frame for an NBA center, he may need some time to realize his potential.

 

2. Orlando Magic: Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas

Like Noel, Ben McLemore carries some question marks with him as he prepares for an NBA career. With just a year of experience under his belt (and an inconsistent year at that), teams can’t be 100 percent sure what they will get from him in his formative years.

That said, McLemore isn’t as risky a prospect as some tend to believe. With a good frame for an NBA 2-guard (6’5”), and arguably the purest long-range jumper of any player in college basketball, McLemore should contribute immediately at the NBA level.

The Kansas shooting guard may not average 20-plus points in the next couple seasons—and he still needs to work on creating his own scoring chances—but his current skill set translates well to the pro game.

3. Washington Wizards: Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown

Otto Porter’s draft stock seems to be slipping a little, but it has nothing to do with his talent level.

The Georgetown forward is proficient in nearly every facet of the game, and while that means he’s unlikely to be tagged with the “bust” label any time soon, he’s also not the high-upside prospect some teams will be looking for at the top of the draft.

That said, Porter would be a tremendous fit next to John Wall and Bradley Beal in Washington. It’s hard to believe the Wizards will pass on him in favor a less-polished forward like Anthony Bennett.

4. Charlotte Bobcats: Anthony Bennett, F, UNLV

Bennett doesn’t have the same NBA polish as Porter, but he does have a higher ceiling. At 6’7” and 240 pounds, the UNLV product is athletic enough to present a ton of matchup problems for NBA forwards. He's also powerful enough to be a mismatch for most small forwards in the league.

That kind of versatility is coveted, but it also means that finding an immediate fit for Bennett may be a bit of a struggle. He’ll need a little time to develop at either position.

5. Phoenix Suns: Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana

It’s hard not to like Indiana’s Victor Oladipo. He’s a terrific spot-up shooter with above-average athleticism, and has the type of motor that NBA teams love to see from top prospects. Paired with tremendous defensive skills and plenty of upside, there’s no reason Oladipo slips out of the top-five picks on draft day.

6. New Orleans Pelicans: Trey Burke, PG, Michigan

New Orleans can’t really afford to pass on the best player still on the board. Trey Burke was arguably the most versatile point guard in college basketball last season, and he’ll give the Pelicans a future star to build around at a position of critical importance.

7. Sacramento Kings: Shabazz Muhammad, SF, UCLA

Shabazz Muhammad appeared to be headed toward a top-three selection when he began the season at UCLA, but an inconsistent 2012-13 campaign raised a lot of questions about the forward’s NBA-readiness.

Muhammad has some redeeming qualities, but he’s not an instinctual defender and still struggles to create his own scoring opportunities. When it comes to risky picks outside of the top three, the UCLA prospect sets the bar.

8. Detroit Pistons: C.J. McCollum, PG/SG, Lehigh

C.J. McCollum is the type of player that NBA teams love to gamble on early in the draft. There’s so much ambiguity surrounding his positional fit in the NBA that it is pushing his draft stock down a bit. However, there will undoubtedly be a team drafting in the top-10 enamored with his upside enough to take him.

At 6’3”, McCollum is a little short for the shooting guard position. He’s also not a proficient facilitator and offensive leader. He’s a pure scorer, however, and if made part of the right backcourt, he can be an explosive producer at the NBA level.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves: Cody Zeller, C, Indiana

Drafting the best player available isn’t always the best option, but with no perimeter scorers worthy of a selection here, it’s the right choice for the Timberwolves. Cody Zeller is one of the more versatile big men in this draft class, but he’ll need a little polish to be a high-level NBA producer.

10. Portland Trail Blazers: Alex Len, C, Maryland

Portland may lose J.J. Hickson to free agency this summer, and even if Hickson remains in the fold, the Trail Blazers need depth in their frontcourt; Alex Len can provide them with that depth. He has enough athleticism, defensive prowess and mid-range shooting ability to make an immediate impact at the professional level.

11. Philadelphia 76ers: Kelly Olynyk, C, Gonzaga

This is a spot with a lot of uncertainty. Philadelphia is expected to draft a center with this pick, but right now it’s nearly impossible to pinpoint which one.

Foreign prospect Rudy Gobert has been gaining steam, but it’s hard to believe he’ll make the leap into the first 11 picks. If Kelly Olynyk is still on the board, he’s the most likely candidate.

 

12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville

Dieng’s defensive skills make him an excellent fit on an Oklahoma City squad not exactly lacking in the scoring department. What the Thunder need is another imposing frontcourt presence. It also doesn't hurt that Dieng has better offensive skills than he’s given credit for.

13. Dallas Mavericks: Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State

Dallas’ offseason will be focused on finding another difference-maker and immediate producer, likely in it's backcourt. Jamaal Franklin needs to develop a jump shot to be a top-tier NBA player, but he already has the speed, quickness and athleticism he needs to flourish in the Mavericks’ backcourt.

14. Utah Jazz: Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany

Don’t be surprised if Dennis Schroeder jumps into the top 10 on draft day. Like most foreign prospects, it has taken a little time for teams to get a good look at the athletic point guard.

Schroeder’s versatility is easily his best quality. He’s quick, heady, boasts a proficient jump shot and isn’t too shabby with the basketball in his hands. There will no doubt be a couple of lottery teams extremely intrigued by the 6’3” guard.

15. Milwaukee Bucks: Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse

With the futures of both Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis still up in the air, Milwaukee has to consider finding a replacement for at least one of them prior to free agency. In this scenario, the Bucks also get a player who offers something neither of the team's current guards have.

Michael Carter-Williams is a terrific facilitator and leader who doesn’t consider shooting the ball his first option. He does lack the offensive skills of some of the top point guards in this class, but that will come with a little NBA experience in the right system.

16. Boston Celtics: Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh

If Kevin Garnett isn’t back in green next season, Boston needs to have a player in place who can fill that void. Steven Adams’ seven-foot frame and 7’5” wingspan are impressive, but it’s his touch around the basket and surprisingly good mid-range jumper that will have Boston’s interest if he’s still available at No. 16.

17. Atlanta Hawks: Mason Plumlee, PF/C, Duke

With a ton of holes to fill this offseason, Atlanta can’t reach free agency without a contingency plan in place. Should the Hawks fail to acquire Dwight Howard on the free-agent market, they’ll need to have a player like Mason Plumlee who can eat up a lot of minutes in his formative years.

18. Atlanta Hawks (via Houston): Dario Saric, F, Croatia

While Plumlee fills a need, he’s not the high-upside prospect that Danny Ferry also needs to look for with one of his two first-round selections. Provided he doesn’t package the picks to move up in the draft, there’s a good chance he will gamble on a player like Dario Saric, who has massive NBA upside.

Saric still needs to develop his defensive game and free-throw shooting, but he’s a tremendous scorer with exceptional size and enough athleticism to warrant a long-term look at the small forward position.

19. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Los Angeles Lakers): Rudy Gobert, C, France

At this point in the first round, Cavs GM Chris Grant won’t be afraid to double-up on centers if Rudy Gobert is still on the board.

The 7’2” center has been a popular prospect with lottery projectors given his massive size and wingspan. Given the Cavs’ need for an imposing center with shot-blocking ability (and concerns regarding Noel’s recovery time), Gobert would be a good choice to fill that void.

20. Chicago Bulls: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia

The Bulls need a long-term solution at the shooting guard position. Georgia’s Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is easily the best option available at this point in the draft.

Given Caldwell-Pope’s size (6’6”) and deadly long-range jump shot, there aren’t many players with his potential still on the board. Backcourt depth should be a major concern for Chicago this offseason, and Caldwell-Pope fits the bill.

 

21. Utah Jazz: Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan

Like Caldwell-Pope, Tim Hardaway Jr. has prototypical size for an NBA 2-guard. His jump shot continues to improve, and apart from some questions about his defensive abilities, there’s no reason to believe he’ll be available much later than this in the first round.

22. Brooklyn Nets: Shane Larkin, PG, Miami

Shane Larkin’s draft stock is entirely too ambiguous at this point. He has the incredible athleticism needed to be selected much higher in the first round, but his size (5’11”) and limited defensive skill set may force him to slide down into the 20s on draft day.

 

23. Indiana Pacers: Tony Mitchell, PF, North Texas

Tony Mitchell is comparable in some ways to Denver Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried, but a disappointing season at North Texas won’t help his draft stock. Right now, he looks like a high-risk, high-reward NBA player with a ton of athleticism.

If Mitchell decides to work hard and improve his defensive skills in the NBA, he’ll be in good position to make an immediate impact. With Indiana, he’ll have a good opportunity to do just that.

 

24. New York Knicks: Allen Crabbe, SG, California

When it comes to versatility at the shooting guard position, Allen Crabbe may be the poster child for this draft class. At 6’6” with excellent shooting ability and a propensity for playing a facilitative role, New York won’t have a hard time finding a fit for Crabbe in it's rotation.

 

25. Los Angeles Clippers: Tony Snell, SG, New Mexico

When talking about late first-round prospects, the same almost always holds true; Tony Snell has plenty of potential, but he’s still a very raw shooter with limited NBA-readiness.

Los Angeles doesn’t have to worry about finding an immediate starter. With Snell, it gets a player to groom for the future and integrate into an already solid backcourt.

 

26. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Memphis): Deshaun Thomas, SF, Ohio State

The Timberwolves need to find a perimeter scorer at some point in this draft. Provided they don’t package their two first-round selections to move up for one, this seems like the most likely spot.

 

27. Denver Nuggets: Giannis Adetokoubo, SF, Greece

With Danilo Gallinari likely to miss part of the 2013 season, the Nuggets have to find a way to replace some of his production. The most realistic scenario is Denver addressing that need in free agency, but it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see it also look for an option via the draft.

28. San Antonio Spurs: Jeff Withey, C, Kansas

Scoring in the paint isn’t exactly Jeff Withey’s biggest strength, but he’s a tremendous shot-blocker who is physical enough to compete in the NBA—particularly at the defensive end.

San Antonio doesn’t need to find an immediate starter here. More likely, the Spurs look for a player that they can groom in the final years of Tim Duncan’s career.

29. Oklahoma City Thunder: Sergey Karasev, SG, Russia

Oklahoma City shouldn’t expect to find an immediate producer at this point in the draft, but it also doesn’t really need one.

Sergey Karasev, while extremely raw in a lot of areas, does have the size and shooting ability to warrant a closer look late in the first round. He’ll need some time to develop, but he has the most upside of any player still on the board at a position of need for the Thunder.

30. Phoenix Suns (via Miami): Reggie Bullock, SF, North Carolina

The Suns’ draft will be all about adding talent wherever possible. At No. 30, they can afford to gamble on upside and select a player who has the potential to develop into a terrific perimeter scorer at the next level.