MMA Stock Projection for June: Whom to Bet On, Whom to Avoid

June is here, and the UFC gets set to bring us more action with two events in back-to-back weeks.

The first event comes to you from Brazil. UFC on Fuel TV 10 features Fabricio Werdum vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in a heavyweight showdown. The rematch has significant ramifications in the division, and should Werdum win, he could be next in line for the UFC heavyweight championship.

Twelve other fights are happening at UFC on Fuel 10. It will be a good evening of action.

UFC 161 happens one week later. After injuries have altered the card, it is less enticing, but the main event will still deliver. Rashad Evans and Dan Henderson go toe-to-toe to try and reclaim past contender status.

Other contenders and prospects will be in action on both cards. It will be another satisfying month of MMA action.

Here are the fighters to bet on, and the fighters to avoid this month.

BET: Derek Brunson

Derek Brunson made his debut in the UFC a successful one with a win over Chris Leben. It was an uneventful fight, but one that got him the W.

He will take on Ronny Markes at UFC on Fuel 10.

Brunson is currently sitting at around +180 on several sportsbooks. That is a bit surprising as Brunson should probably be the favorite in this battle. Markes is a tough out for Brunson, but he is the better athlete with more upside to his career.

This is good value for an up-and-coming fighter in the middleweight division.

BET: Mizuto Hirota

The fight between Mizuto Hirota and Rodrigo Damm features two quality featherweights coming off losses.

Damm is the narrow favorite, and that's why you should look at betting on Hirota.

Hirota had a poor outing in the UFC against Rani Yahya, but his performance against Pat Healy in Strikeforce shows you that he can compete with the best. This will be an interesting fight. Damm will want to take Hirota down to the canvas, but I think Hirota will be prepared for the grappling exchanges.

It's certainly not the greatest of value, but Hirota is worth a few dollars as a slight dog.

AVOID: Erick Silva

Erick Silva enters UFC on Fuel 10 as a sizable favorite against Jason High. With his past performances and dynamic skills, he's earned that.

However, Silva is hovering around the -400 range on the sportsbooks. The return on investment isn't great in what should be a competitive fight.

Silva has most likely been working on his wrestling since losing to Jon Fitch at UFC 153, and that will serve him well against High. Also, he's been refining his striking with Anderson Silva. He continues to look like one of the best prospects in the UFC.

If you are completely confident in Silva, then you may see it as a sure bet to put up a little change. Make no mistake, High is a legit threat in this fight. A line of -400 is too steep to get me interested.

BET: Jason High

Typically, I choose one fighter from a fight and move on, but Silva vs. High is all about value.

Whereas Silva was too big a favorite to bet on, High may be too big a dog to skip.

High is on a seven-fight win streak, has excellent wrestling and a good submission game. He is no pushover, and if Silva isn't prepared for the grind, he could end up on the losing end once more. High could easily move right alongside the back half of the top 10 with an impressive win against Silva.

High is as high as +348 on some books. Incredible value for a top welterweight. This fight is all about the value.

AVOID: Thiago Silva

Thiago Silva is a slight dog against Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante, and as a former top 10 light heavyweight, that may surprise some.

Stick with betting the favorite in this fight.

Feijao is a hard hitter. Silva hasn't been known for his granite chin. That is serious reason to caution placing any money on Silva simply because his line has the plus symbol beside it. Be smart.

The risk isn't worth the small reward.

BET: Fabricio Werdum

Fabricio Werdum may be a -300 favorite, but he is nearly a sure thing.

Minotauro Nogueira is a legend, but he has seen better days. Can he win? Sure. Will he? Highly unlikely.

Werdum is younger, more athletic, has more diverse striking, a fantastic submission game, and is more durable at this stage in their careers. All bad signs for Nogueira in this fight.

Expect Werdum to take the win and lobby for a title shot. He should be the next in line.

AVOID: Tyron Woodley

Tyron Woodley enters UFC 161 as a slight favorite over former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields.

Woodley's wrestling may stifle Shields' attempts to get this fight to the mat, and his power may put Shields out. Those are two possibilities, but they are much easier said than done against Shields.

Shields has a decent wrestling attack of his own, but whether from top or bottom, he is a threat with his ground game. Woodley may simply want to make this a striking match. He holds the advantage there, but Shields is still a live dog.

The bottom line is that Woodley's betting line isn't worthy of going against Shields. He is nearly a 2:1 favorite, but Shields is a crafty veteran who could easily flush your money away.

BET: Pat Barry

Pat Barry is 3-3 since 2011, and recently got back on the winning track with a knockout of Shane del Rosario at The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale.

Shawn Jordan should be an interesting test for Barry.

Jordan is a powerful man who will try to take Barry down. The feared striker is used to that by now. What is more striking in this fight is how each man performed in their last outing. Jordan survived a first round against Mike Russow to stop him in the second, and Barry had the KO as previously mentioned.

Barry's performance was more surprising. Del Rosario was supposed to be a legit prospect in the division, and Barry stopped that train. It's tough to view Jordan as a better heavyweight than him, and that has me thinking Barry gets another stoppage.

BET: Roy Nelson

I will be honest: when I saw Roy Nelson's line was around -250, I couldn't believe it. Throw money at him while you can.

Stipe Miocic, who Nelson meets at UFC 161, is a fine heavyweight prospect. However, he is not on Nelson's level right now. Not in the slightest.

Nelson has a fantastic streak going, and that should continue at UFC 161. It would be a stunning upset if Miocic were able to win. Nelson has better striking, big power and a fantastic submission game. Miocic may not even be the better athlete in this fight.

All signs point to Big Country winning impressively, and while his odds are still where they are, you should get in on him.

AVOID: Rashad Evans

Rashad Evans is a very slight favorite in his bout against Dan Henderson, but I would still hesitate playing him in this bout.

Don't get me wrong: those are good odds for Evans. The hesitation comes from Evans' recent performance, and Henderson's big right hand. The main event of UFC 161 could go either way, and there are better fights on the card to lay money on.

If you want to bet Evans, that's understandable. Perhaps I'm just a bit too cautious in this case.

Evans has the inside track to win this fight, but everyone should be fearful of that one haymaker from Henderson.