NBA Playoffs 2013: Complete Guide to San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat Finals

After surviving the Indiana Pacers in a seven-game series that went the distance, the Miami Heat have advanced to the 2013 NBA Finals, for the third straight year, to now earn a date with the San Antonio Spurs.

Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan are seeking their fifth title for San Antonio, and they're hoping speedy point guard Tony Parker can make it happen. The Spurs' floor general averaged 24.5 points and 9.5 assists in San Antonio's Western Conference finals sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies.

For LeBron James, this series is an opportunity for back-to-back rings along with a shot at revenge against the Spurs for his 2007 NBA Finals loss while with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Which Big Three will prevail? What are the key stats to focus on? What is the winning game plan for each squad?

Find out in our head-to-toe breakdown of the NBA Finals.

Key Matchup: Tim Duncan vs. Chris Bosh

Neither is the most valuable player on his team, but the big-man matchup of Tim Duncan and Chris Bosh will go a long way in determining the outcome of this series.

Twitter pundits are ready to grant Duncan lordship over Bosh, but the last two times they've been on the floor together (January 2012 and March 2013), Bosh has been more productive and the Heat have won.

To be fair, those were regular-season games, and the lineups were different than we'll see in the NBA Finals. Duncan will certainly see more playing time and will be more aggressive.

These two won't check each other exclusively, as Udonis Haslem and Tiago Splitter will mix in, but Duncan and Bosh will dictate the complexion of the frontcourt offense.

Can Bosh's variety of jumpers and drives make Miami a dynamic offensive threat? Will Duncan assert himself in the post and give Bosh foul trouble?

LeBron James and Tony Parker are the stars of the series, but the battle of the bigs is a huge piece of the puzzle.

Need-to-Know Stats

Turnover Battle: Something's Got to Give: The Heat are forcing 16.6 turnovers per game, but the Spurs give it away an averaged of just 12 times a night.

LeBron Warming Up From Distance: King James' three-point percentage has climbed each round. He shot 27 percent against the Bucks, 35 percent against the Bulls and 44 percent against the Pacers. Can Kawhi Leonard curb LeBron's triples?

Spurs' Unselfishness: The physical nature of the playoffs hasn't slowed down San Antonio's passing attack, as it was by far the best unit in the playoffs. It averaged 23.6 assists, including a combined 12.6 from Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.

Miami's Rebounding Potential: Although the Heat don't often rely on owning the glass, but when they do, look out. In Game 7 against the Pacers, the Big Three combined for 25 boards as Miami out-rebounded Indiana, 43-36, including a 15-8 advantage on the offensive glass. That helps explain Miami's 23-point blowout to win the series.

The X-Factor

Who would have thought the 2006 NBA Finals MVP would be considered an "X-factor" this postseason?

There are several X-factors for each team, but Dwyane Wade and his knee are the most critical for Miami. It's been apparent for weeks that he's well below 100 percent, and his pedestrian average of 13.6 points says it all.

In Game 7 against the Pacers, Wade looked much more like LeBron's worthy sidekick, matching his 2013 playoff highs with 21 points and nine rebounds. His aggressiveness on the glass and in the lane transformed the Miami Heat into a runaway freight train that flattened Indiana.

Has Wade's bounce returned for good or will his pesky joint nag him throughout the Finals? When he defers and isn't a superstar, it puts too much pressure on LeBron to produce as a scorer.

Keep an eye on how Wade plays Danny Green on both ends of the floor. If Green makes it a fair fight, this series is up for grabs. If Wade is a star, Miami has a decisive edge.

History of Spurs vs. Heat in Past Decade

The past couple of meetings between the Spurs and Heat were marked by absent superstars and unconventional lineups, so let's dig back to the previous 10 years for some perspective.

Since Manu Ginobili joined Tony Parker and Tim Duncan in 2002-03, San Antonio is 14-7 against Miami. When Dwyane Wade joined Shaquille O'Neal, things became a bit more competitive because the Heat had the firepower to battle the Spurs inside and out.

The two teams took turns winning NBA titles in 2006 (Heat) and 2007 (Spurs), but they have never faced each other on the big stage.

However, San Antonio met LeBron James in the finals during 2007 as a Cleveland Cavalier and held him to 22 points per game on 35 percent shooting to sweep the series.

This time, Popovich's crew encounters an upgraded LeBron and an augmented supporting cast in Miami. What will this chapter of basketball history look like?

How Spurs Can Win

1. Push the Ball: San Antonio routinely gets 20-plus assists because it advances the ball quickly and looks for early offense. Whether LeBron James misses or makes a shot at the rim, Tony Parker and company must push the ball and find opportunities for Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Tim Duncan trailing on the break.

2. Sharp Pick-and-Roll Defense: This Spurs group doesn't rotate defensively quite as cohesively as the 2003-07 teams, and there have been occasional lapses in pick-and-roll defense this postseason. Miami uses several different pick-and-roll combos, so San Antonio must know its assignments and execute if it wants to consistently get stops.

3. Utilize Twin Towers: Much like the Indiana Pacers, San Antonio should make good use of its height. Even if Duncan and Tiago Splitter don't score a boatload, their constant involvement will help soften the Heat defense. High-post to low-post distribution is critical.

How Heat Can Win

1. Stifle Spurs' Role Players: Tony Parker is going to make plays and Tim Duncan is always in the right place at the right time, but Miami can derail San Antonio's key role players and own the identity of the series. Dwyane Wade (healthy) and LeBron James can silence Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard, and Udonis Haslem and Chris Andersen can disrupt Tiago Splitter. That makes for a weak Spurs' attack.

2. Heavy Dose of Five-Out: In order to be the best version of themselves, the Heat should make use of their shooters and athleticism by operating frequently in a five-out spread. LeBron can work the pick-and-roll as either the handler or screener, and then get the ball into the lane on the dribble or catch. That's when spot-up shooters can do damage or Birdman can make a timely baseline cut.

3. Don't Let Bosh Settle: Chris Bosh's intermittent outside jumpers are great, but he's more valuable to the team when driving, drawing fouls and creating second-chance opportunities. His aggressiveness is essential.

Predicting a Winner and MVP

Who Will Win and Why

If the Pacers can push the Heat to seven games, the Spurs can surely finish the job, right? If only it were that simple.

San Antonio will see its first game action in nine days while the Heat enter Game 1 at home off a huge conference finals win and a more appropriate two-day break. If Dwyane Wade's knee holds up, the Heat have the edge in the opener and the rest of the series.

Gregg Popovich's crew is a machine-like unit filled with enough playmakers, stoppers and shooters to give the Heat trouble. However, Miami has some stoppers of its own, and more importantly, it has LeBron James and the home-court advantage. His versatility and efficiency are undeniable, even if Kawhi Leonard is a great defender and the Spurs are rock-solid.

Prediction: Heat in 7

And the MVP Goes To...

...LeBron.

Unless Tony Parker pulls a Jerry West, there's no scenario where Miami wins the title without James earning MVP honors.

LeBron's 2013 NBA Finals stat line: 27.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 6.8 APG.

Follow Dan O'Brien on Twitter: @DanielO_BR