UFC on Fuel 10: Minotauro Nogueira vs. Fabricio Werdum Head-to-Toe Breakdown

This Saturday, June 8, the UFC returns to Brazil for its 10th Fuel TV card. The event will feature a wealth of Brazilian talent and will be capped off by a main event between Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Fabricio Werdum.

The intriguing headliner is the rematch of a 2006 Pride FC affair that went the way of "Minotauro," who was able to secure a unanimous-decision victory.

But a great deal has changed since then. Werdum is now streaking toward a title shot and would help his case by evening the score, while Nogueira is looking to string together back-to-back victories for the first time since 2008.

Here we will take a look at the Nogueira vs. Werdum matchup and examine how it is likely to play out. We will assess which fighter has an edge in each of the striking, wrestling and grappling and submission areas of the game and use those assessments to project the probable outcome.

Striking

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Though submissions have always been the bread and butter of Nogueira's game, his boxing is another tool that's served him well. He doesn't wield a heck of a lot of power for a heavyweight, but he usually manages to hold his own in the striking department.

At least, he used to. Nowadays, Nogueira's striking is a bit more suspect. Not so much because his technique has fallen by the wayside, but because his once ungodly capacity to absorb punishment has abandoned him, which puts him at risk of a knockout whenever the action is vertical.

Fabricio Werdum

Werdum has come a long way from the time he attempted to slap Andrei Arlovski back at UFC 70. In fact, since rejoining the UFC in February 2012, Werdum's striking, heavily grounded in Muay Thai, has looked outstanding.

At UFC 143, he schooled Roy Nelson on the feet for 15 minutes, then KO'd the ultra-durable Mike Russow back at UFC 147.

The Brazilian's striking will never be his primary asset, but it's getting very dangerous. And that is a truly scary thing for UFC heavyweights to consider.

Edge: Werdum

Werdum has just looked too good of late not to get the nod here, especially considering Nogueira's waning ability to shrug off damage.

This could prove to be a decisive factor in the upcoming UFC on Fuel 10 match. 

Wrestling

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

"Big Nog" has never appeared to have been concerned that someone might take him down since working off of his back is something that he is more than comfortable at doing. As a result, his wrestling defensive has never come off as overly impressive.

Unfortunately, his wrestling offensive has never been spectacular either. But, when you consider that he has fought a handful of accomplished wrestlers, his overall lack of success becomes less troubling.

Fabricio Werdum

Werdum's takedown numbers are almost identical to Nogueira's, according to FightMetric. He does, however, tend to be a little more active in his pursuit of the takedown—until he suddenly became a force to be reckoned with on the feet anyway—so he earns points there.

On the other hand, Werdum hasn't faced the same level of competition nor wrestlers that Nogueira has, which sort of wipes away the edge he earns for aggressiveness.

Edge: Nogueira

This one is relatively close, but since Nogueira has been able to post nearly the same takedown numbers as Werdum, against harder competition, he gets the nod for wrestling.

Grappling and Submissions

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

There have been few elite heavyweight mixed martial artists that specialize as grapplers, but Nogueira is definitely one of them. Twenty-one of his 34 victories have come by making opponents tap, and several more of his wins have been procured by out-dueling opponents on the mat.

Nogueira was submitted back in 2011, but his defense remains stout. He is capable of submitting any fighter out there and is one of the more active big men to hunt for the stoppage.

Fabricio Werdum

Like Nogueira, Werdum is most effective when the action hits the floor, where he is world-class.

Half of his professional wins have come via submission (eight of 16), and conceiving of a scenario that he himself is submitted inside the Octagon is basically laughable.

If Werdum isn't the very best grappler currently competing in MMA, he is certainly one of the best.

Edge: Werdum

There aren't many heavyweights who have an advantage over Minotauro in this department, but Werdum is one of them.

With two ADCC golds, two silvers and two bronzes, he is both one of the most accomplished and effective grapplers to ever step foot inside a UFC cage.

The Bottom Line

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

The hand holding the "washed-up" label has been hovering above Nogueira for several years now, but he keeps slapping it away before it touches down. 

His knockout win over Brendan Schaub back in 2011 showed that he still cannot be written off as a striker, and his submission victory over Dave Herman last fall demonstrates that he can still channel his vintage grappler.

Against Werdum, Nogueira finds a very tough stylistic matchup. But, as good as "Vai Cavalo" has looked standing lately, you can't put it past Nogueira to land a decisive blow of his own.

Alternatively, if Nogueira can close the distance and keep Werdum against the fence for large portions of the match, he may be able to bully his way to a convincing decision win.

Fabricio Werdum

Werdum's newfound striking ability has made him a dark-horse title threat. With a win over Nogueira at UFC on Fuel 10, you can change that to a very real and very immediate title threat.

To get the job done Werdum can look either to his striking or grappling. In space, he could work Nogueira over, and in close, he could latch on the Thai clinch, which has worked so well for him. He just doesn't want to be kept on the fence.

On the mat, Nogueira is a tough nut to crack, but it's hard not to like Werdum's chances there. Getting a submission win over Minotauro in Brazil would be quite a feather for Werdum's cap.

Projected Result: Werdum def. Nogueira via knockout, Round 2

Werdum has been so good on the feet lately, and Nogueira's chin has become an issue, so I see a Werdum knockout as the most likely end to this fight.

Either guy could finish in either way, and I wouldn't be shocked. But riding the hot hand, I anticipate Werdum continues his ascent up the heavyweight ladder and hammers one more nail into the slowly, but surely, closing coffin of Nogueira's career.