Fantasy Baseball Ramblings: The Run Like Hell Edition

OK folks, here it is. 

The debut of J. Ellet Lambie. 

Please enjoy and give us your feedback.

The FBR, or Fantasy Baseball Ramblings segment, appears regularly at www.jelletlambie.wordpress.com like that stain on your favorite shirt.

Think of it as a friend who comes into your home and spews obscure stats and bold predictions while drinking all your beer.

Enjoy.

Ryan and the Fighting Chance Fantasy team have been kind enough to extend an opportunity my way to sully their good name with my sometimes coherent fantasy gospel.

I’ll try not to embarrass, though it’s a coin flip at best.

Today, the FBR will focus on the plethora of cheap steals available in the free agent pool, the end of the Magglio Ordonez power outage, and the Chris Shelton like descent of Emilio Bonifacio.

Like a good box of cereal there’s a surprise or two in every FBR as well.

Dexter Fowler is fast.

Chris Young is slow to the plate.

Nick Hundley is not a bad defensive catcher, but his arm is average at best.

Put it all together and what do you get?

Five stolen bases in five attempts.

Not bad for a 23 year old who broke camp as the fourth outfielder for the Colorado Rockies after skipping AAA all together.

Through 15 games this season, Fowler has stolen a base nine times...nine times.

I’ve got it right here in front of me.

A little Ferris Bueller goes a long way, I digress.

In addition to his NL leading swipe count, Fowler is hitting .302 with 11 runs scored, two home runs, and eight walks against eight strikeouts in 62 plate appearances.

At 6' 4" and 175 pounds, yes, 175 pounds, he has room to add muscle and power. He’s a switch hitter, having learned to hit lefty only after being drafted. Fowler’s breakout five steal surprise party will surely give him a few minutes of fantasy fame the likes of Emilio Bonifacio and his opening week stealing spree.

The difference is Fowler has the tool kit to be a legitimate source of steals and much more for the remainder of the ‘09 season and beyond.

His ADP (average draft position) in ESPN standard leagues was 260 on opening day. He’s currently owned in 16.5 percent of such leagues—expect that number to keep rising.

If you have an open outfield spot and need a boost in steals, runs, and batting average you could do worse.

If he’s already spoken for you have other options, such as….

Josh Anderson is pretty quick as well.

The Detroit Tigers outfielder has stolen six bags thus far, through only 37 plate appearances. Anderson racked up 280 minor league steals in the Braves organization before coming to Detroit via trade days before the season opener. 

In 14 games for the Tigers, he’s posted a .364 average and a .417 on base percent. With Marcus Thames on the DL and Carlos Guillen comfy and warm in the DH hole, Josh should see regular playing time.

He gives the Tigers another dimension with his speed, not just on the basepaths, but with his ability to bunt for a hit and tremendous outfield range.

I love to watch this kid play the game, soon you will too.

Denard Span has five early thefts along with 18 in his 2008 rookie campaign.

While the outfield is crowded in Minnesota, Span has appeared in 19 of the Twins first 20 games, hitting .306 with a .378 OBP and 12 RBI’s through 72 at-bats.

The 25 year old left handed hitting outfielder compiled 116 minor league steals in 549 games, though he was caught stealing 59 times.

He has the wheels needed to do the job and will benefit from a strong Twins coaching staff, and a team philosophy that puts runners in motion.

I expect his caught stealing numbers to decline with experience. The Twinkies love themselves some small ball; Denard seems to be a perfect fit.

If you consider yourself an active fantasy owner, you’ve undoubtedly by now seen the name Nyjer Morgan pop up in your stat searches or in your free agent pool.

Like his counterparts above, he was undrafted in most mixed leagues but has found his way onto many a roster already.

He’s currently owned in 56.7 percent of ESPN standard leagues, a number that would be higher if he were playing somewhere other than Pittsburgh. If he is still out there in your league, take advantage of the small market media blackout and find a place for him on your squad.

He’s played in all 19 of the Pirates games so far, and played well.

Morgan enters tonight's contest hitting .338 with six stolen bases, 16 runs scored, and 10 driven in. He’s been highly touted in Pittsburgh for a couple of years now...consider this his coming out party.

He runs like somebody's after him; do yourself a favor and catch him.

Endy Chavez has five steals in 19 games.

He also boasts a batting average north of .300 with nine runs, and nine walks so far.

This is the same Endy Chavez who stole 50 bases over the 2003-2004 campaigns. It is also the same Endy Chavez who has stolen only 30 bags since then, so a little buyer beware may be in order, but he’s widely available and has a cool name...so he has that going for him.

Finally there is Justin Maxwell of the Washington Nationals.

He only has three steals so far, but he also only has eight at-bats this season. It’s far too early to extrapolate a full season out of the 25 year old, but he has tremendous size (6′5″ 225), superior athletic ability, and a high baseball IQ.

If he can find playing time, he just might be a household name among fantasy geeks far and wide.

Stolen bases are as valuable in a 5 x 5 roto format as any other category by rule, and are usually the easiest category to fill after draft day.

If you’re in need, search for speed—it shouldn’t be hard to find.

Magglio Ordonez entered the Detroit Tigers Apr. 25th game against the Kansas City Royals with 17 base hits, all singles.

The cries went out from many a mountain top that the power stroke of the curly haired one had gone the way of the dinosaur. Fantasy pundits bellowed loud and far that this was the beginning of the end for his prodigious home run and RBI totals.

Since Apr. 25th, Ordonez has two base hits, both home runs. Perhaps early reports of his long ball demise were erroneous.

To be fair, I believe the days of Magglio hitting 30 + home runs are a thing of the past.

However, with his propensity for hitting the ball to right field and the large number of at bats he’ll get in hitters havens like US Cellular and Jacobs Fields, 20 or more bombs seems a fair prediction.

Even without top 10 home run production, this is the same Magglio that won the AL batting title two years ago hitting .363—the same Magglio of the .312 career batting average—the same Magglio who has driven in 100 runs or more three straight seasons, and the same Magglio who will hit third, right in front of Miguel Cabrera.

Don’t let the critics fool ya, Magpipes can still hit, and hit with power.

Emilio, Emilio, what the hell happened to Emilio?

Mr. Bonifacio set the fantasy world on it's ear with his early season offensive outburst.

He collected 14 hits in his first 24 at bats, stole four bases in that time, and flew out of the free agent pool at a staggering rate.

Since then, Emilio is 7-55 with one steal and 16 strikeouts.

How is Chris Shelton doing these days anyhow?

I kid because I care.

While we all expected him to come back to earth, I think it’s fair to say we had hoped for more of a soft landing than a nose first crash into the bedrock.

So, what do you do with him if he still appears on your roster?

Option A consists of stashing him on your bench in the hopes that he can somehow resurrect his early April self.

Option B is less gentle, but more popular among owners so far—toss him overboard and continue forward. A wealth of candidates are out there waiting to take his spot. 

Second base options like: Skip Schumaker, Alberto Callaspo, and my new favorite unheralded middle infielder Asdrubal Cabrera are widely available and each have multi-position eligibility like Bonifacio.

A myriad of pitching options exist as well, should you need to build that half of your roster instead.

I can’t tell you what to do, it’s just too pushy, and I really don’t know you well enough to be your life coach...yet, but remember that Bonifacio is a .247 career hitter with 12 steals in 78 career games played, including this season.

If you’re holding out hope that he’s on the verge of another outburst, that’s fine. It’s fun to dream sometimes, but know that the numbers suggest his 15 minutes of fame have already come and gone. 

In a deep league with few options available to unseat him, I can see giving him a little more rope, and, for his sake, I hope he finds his level as a productive runs and steals guy...but you might want to add a few names to your watch list just in case.

Other random pieces of information floating about in my head:

Jason Bay currently leads the majors in walks (20) and is second in OPS (1.211).

Brandon Inge has reached base in all 19 games the Tigers have played this season.

Freddy Sanchez has 28 hits thus far, 14 of which have gone for extra bases.

Edinson Volquez has 22 strikeouts in 20 and one-third innings pitched, he’s also issued 20 bases on balls in that timeframe—how he has two wins in four starts, I do not know.

Paul Byrd and Mark Mulder are looking for work. Both injured hurlers plan on beginning private workouts for interested teams this week.

If you have something better to do, like get a cavity fixed, I’d consider it. They are long shots at best with no fantasy value at this point, but considering the obscene number of pitchers on the DL, at this point...I wouldn’t be surprised if both end up with a job.

How long they’ll stay employed is another question.

Whether I’ll be invited back is another question as well.

In either case, my thanks once again to Ryan and the gang here at FCF for everything.

Hazaa

If you’d like to read more from John you can catch his blog at www.jelletlambie.wordpress.com.

From fantasy baseball to fiction and back, it’s free and fun for all ages, well, most ages. Have a question or comment on this edition of the FBR? Drop John a line at [e-mail]