Tank Watch 2013: Handicapping Likely Lottery Team Odds of Land No. 1 Pick

As some teams prepare for the postseason, the league's bottom-dwellers are jostling to secure the best odds at winning the NBA lottery. 

Winning the lottery and the first overall selection doesn't guarantee future success, but having the opportunity to add such a talented young player is crucial.

The team that finishes with the worst record has a 25 percent chance of winning the lottery, while those with the second and third worst records have a 19.9 and 13.8 percent chance of landing the first selection. 

Every lottery team has a chance to get the first pick, although the eight lottery teams with the best records have just a 12.5 percent chance of winning combined. The system is such that being a little below average is the worst spot to be in, as it's difficult to land franchise-changing talent early in the draft. 

Even though this year's draft class projects to be weaker in comparison to years past, the event will still change the futures of the franchises picking at the front of the lottery. 

While accusing a team of tanking is a serious claim, it's impossible to say it doesn't happen. It's not the teams who are at fault, but rather the system. 

It doesn't matter how many more games the Charlotte Bobcats win this season, as their playoff hopes went up in smoke well before Christmas. It's in the best interest of losing teams to play young players for long minutes, which at times makes it hard to be competitive. 

It's weird to say, but for teams such as the Bobcats, Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns, losing is the preferable option. 

The Favorites

The current landscape of the Southeast Division is interesting, as it is home to the NBA's best team (the Miami Heat) and league's worst two. 

With the season rapidly nearing its conclusion, the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Bobcats have compiled a cumulative record of 37-118. That horrendous record is good for a winning percentage of .239, which speaks to the ineptitude of both teams. 

The Bobcats finished the 2011-12 lockout shortened season with the worst record in the NBA, but failed to win the lottery. Instead, they had the second pick and had to settle for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. 

While this year's class doesn't appear to have a talent like Anthony Davis, it's always better to be picking first. 

At this point, the Magic and Bobcats are a lock to finish with the two worst records in the league.

The only question is, which team will have the worse record and the 5.1 percent chance edge on lottery night? 

The Magic are currently half-of-a-game ahead of the Bobcats, but there are still a handful of games left to be played. Orlando has four games remaining on the schedule, with all of those teams preparing to compete in the playoffs. 

They won't be the favorite to win any of those games, but Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra may decide to rest his stars when the Heat face the Magic in their regular-season finale. 

On the other hand, the Bobcats have five games remaining against the Memphis Grizzlies, Detroit Pistons, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers. 

Charlotte will have a puncher's chance against the Pistons and Cavs, which means they may pass Orlando and move out of the NBA's cellar. 

The race for the league's worst record promises to be far more competitive than the race for the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. 

Puncher's Chance

If neither the Magic or Bobcats win the lottery, then it's likely that either the Phoenix Suns, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons or Sacramento Kings get the first pick. 

With the end of the season in sight, the Suns are 23-54, while the Kings and Cavs are 27-50 and 24-52 respectively.

Looking down the road, the Suns are the favorites to finish the season with the third worst record, which would grant them a 15.6 percent chance of winning the lottery. 

The schedule won't be doing Phoenix any favors, with four of their five remaining games coming against Western Conference playoff teams. Losers of nine of their last 10 games, look for the Suns to go winless for the remainder of the season. 

Due to their uncertain future, the Kings are still in a state of flux and will look to add another couple of pieces before they are ready to contend. Sacramento will have a strong chance to add another top-five pick to the roster, but that won't matter if they draft the wrong player.

The Pistons have the league's most exciting frontcourt. The duo of Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond has the potential to dominate, so the front office must shift their focus to acquiring a talented wing player. 

With a 26-52 record, the remaining four games on Detroit's schedule will dictate their odds at landing the first pick—their matchup against Cleveland especially looming.  

Of all the teams in this section, the Cavaliers are currently in the best shape.

They also employ Kyrie Irving. 

Irving, who has emerged as an elite point guard this season, is an excellent floor general and feels perfectly comfortable with the game on the line. As long as Cavs GM Chris Grant puts decent talent around Irving, Cleveland will be cheering on a winning team again soon. 

The Long Shots 

Do you believe in miracles? 

The cities of Cleveland and Chicago did in 2011 and 2008 respectively, as each franchise landed a franchise-changing point guard by winning the lottery despite long odds. The Cavs' pick that won the lottery in 2011 had the eighth best odds, while the Bulls landed Derrick Rose with the ninth best odds. 

The question is, will this year's lottery offer up another major surprise? 

The odds are stacked against another long shot winning, but anything is possible in the NBA. 

While we still don't know every team that will be participating in the lottery, we can safely pencil in the majority of the spots.

The Toronto Raptors, Philadelphia 76ers, Washington Wizards, Minnesota Timberwolves, Portland Trail Blazers and the Dallas Mavericks are all locks to miss out on the playoffs, with either the Los Angeles Lakers or Utah Jazz begrudgingly taking the final lottery slot. 

The Oklahoma City Thunder own the Raptors' first-round pick, which puts the perennial contenders in the lottery once again. 

If the Lakers make the playoffs, then they will retain their first-round pick rather than sending it to Cleveland as part of last season's Ramon Sessions trade.

If any team from this section wins the lottery, we will have to pick our jaws up from the floor.