Early Departures of the Donovan Era- Part IV

Written by James Brown, Gatorsfirst.com Co-Founder

I began writing this piece, thinking that Nick Calathes could actually go to the NBA, and it would be chronologically relevant.  Since that time, Allan Chaney and DeShawn Painter have assured that it is a pertinent topic whether Calathes stays or goes.  After I completed all my research and dove into the writing, I realized it would be easier to follow in a series format.  This is the final section of that series. You can find parts one, two, and three here.

In the days since I began posting my thoughts on this topic, it has come out that Alex Tyus is transferring.

As the days go by, it also seems more and more likely Nick Calathes is headed to the NBA because of the transfers,  because of a rumored rift between him and Billy D, and because of stories coming out about his NBA dreams.  Personally, I am not sold that he is gone yet, but I would definitely say it is more likely that he is gone for good than it was the day he announced his intentions to attend the NBA workouts.

At any rate, let’s see how the past performance and player movement have related to each other during the rest of the Billy Donovan Era at Florida.

Before I state some of my observations and conclusions, look at the entire departure timeline, summarized below:

1996-97: LeRon Williams (South Carolina)
97-98: Jason Williams (drugs, NBA)
98-99: Jamaal Horton (unknown), Sylbrin Robinson (grades, Northeastern- eventually)
99-2000: None
00-01: Mike Miller (NBA), Donnell Harvey (NBA)
01-02: Kwame Brown (NBA), Teddy Dupay (gambling)
02-03: James White (Cincinnati), Orien Greene (Lousiana-Lafayette), Coach John Pelfrey (South Alabama, now Arkansas)
03-04: Mario Boggan (Oklahoma State), Christian Drejer (Europe)
04-05: Rashid Al-Kaleem (DII: American International College), Mohamed Abukar (San Diego State), Ryan Appleby (Washington)
05-06: Cornelius Ingram (football), Anthony Roberson (NBA, sort of), Matt Walsh (NBA, sort of), Derwin Kitchen (grades, FSU)
06-07: Jimmie Sutton (FAU), David Huertas (Ole Miss), Coach Anthony Grant (VCU, now Alabama)
07-08: Al Horford (NBA), Corey Brewer (NBA), Joakim Noah (NBA), Taurean Green (NBA), Brandon Powell (drugs, Marshall), Coach Donnie Jones (Marshall)
08-09: Marresse Speights (NBA), Jai Lucas (Texas), Jonathan Mitchell (Rutgers), Coach Lewis Preston (assistant at Penn State)
09-10: Allan Chaney (unknown at this time), Alex Tyus (unknown at this time), DeShawn Painter (unknown at this time), Nick Calathes? (NBA), Coach Shaka Smart (VCU)

Observations

The most heralded recruiting class was the second year after the original run to the National Title game.  This has to do with the recruiting calendar, and the increased attention that run got him.  But it also has to do with the way he has tried to get players that will stay in school rather than the NBA.  I would argue he now needs to get guys that stay in one school.

That first National Title game run was based on team depth and athleticism, and featured a lot more pressing than current Donovan teams.  Note that it also seemed to take place at a low point in player attrition from his programs.

The vaunted '04s actually came in a player short, as Derwin Kitchen failed to qualify.  The player attrition seemed high once they took over, but what we really lost were two three-year players and one four-year player, and that does not seem to be all that unusual. 

It is probably more significant that we returned the two starters and all four of them progressed together.  It is relevant that the four of them that came into school together played together for three years and won three SEC Tournament Titles and two NCAA Tournament titles.

The current decline in team performance can at least be attributed to the four '04s all leaving at once, the graduation of the last two remaining '03s,  the departures of Huertas, Sutton, and Powell during the same time period, and even the departure of all three walk-ons from the second title team (Brett Swanson was a senior, but Garrett Tyler and Jack Berry wisely realized their careers had peaked). 

It makes it tough to practice, let alone get ready for big-time SEC and NCAA competition in those conditions.  You could also argue the non-conference slate makes it tough on the young players in helping them to improve, but that’s a subject I’ll cover in another blog.

Unfortunately, it appears the trends are continuing for at least one more year, as we will lose Tyus, Chaney, Painter, and likely our best player, Nick Calathes, from what could have been our roster for 09-10.  

Sure, you’ll hear the normal places tout a central question for our performance next year as, "Is Kenny Boynton the real deal?"  And that isn’t necessarily wrong. 

But it seems to me, at least when talking about Donovan-coached teams, that a bigger question for the next three years will be, "do the remaining players from the last two classes stick it out at Florida?"  Because Billy D seems to have a very good track record when he has that sort of roster consistency.

You can actually argue the two periods when there was the most roster consistency were the National Runner-Up finish of 99-00, and the '04s, as I’ve already stated the fact that all four of them at least became sophomores together puts them ahead of most of these classes. 

The strange thing I noticed when considering this question was that we didn’t have more success with the Bonner/Hamilton/Nelson class after the title game appearance, considering they all stuck around another two years.

Again, I don’t know if any of this is unique to Billy Donovan.  Pat Dooley noted that he has only had 12 guys in his tenure play four years at Florida, which seems really low.  But I am not as qualified to go look at the other top programs of the last decade (UNC, Michigan State, etc.) to see if that’s just today’s college basketball environment. 

It is apparent that, regardless of what stars are on any given team, there seems to be a strong correlation between roster consistency and team success, at least at Florida.  And it would make sense that there would be some degree of correlation elsewhere. 

The real question is: How widespread is this problem?  Is it a good thing or a bad thing to point out that Donovan’s success has come with the classes that actually stuck around?

I could argue that Donovan is very successful when he gets his players to buy in to his system when they actually stick around for whatever reason.  But you could turn that around if you had data to show that this is the case with every coach. 

I have a suspicion that college basketball isn’t as simple as just scanning rosters for which groups of players have been around the program the longest, so I think you have to give a lot of credit to Billy for having the success he had. 

Considering a school with no real basketball expectations is coming off a decade of four Sweet Sixteens, three Final Fours, and two National Titles.  Hell, the NIT Final Four would have been considered a successful season before his arrival.  Those frustrated with the recent transfers would do well to look down this list and see that roster turnover is certainly nothing new at Florida and, I suspect, around college basketball as a whole.

Billy D has certainly bought himself a lifetime pass from me. I will let him work through this small turmoil and find the players he needs with the correct attitude. 

Another positive for Florida fans: The players that we do actually return, due to deep-ish NIT runs, will actually have gone through longer seasons with more practices as a result of their missing the NCAAs. Where had we just been placed in by the selection committee, it would have likely been first round fodder.

Any thoughts?

You can view the original article here.