Final Four 2013 Odds: Best Bet for Each Semifinal

My bracket may be busted, but I'm going to atone for that by nailing the best bet for each Final Four game. 

While this tournament has been wildly unpredictable, some definite trends have emerged as we've whittled our way down to four teams. It is time to examine these trends and exploit some faulty betting lines. 

*Odds according to Vegas Insider on March 31.

Wichita State vs. Louisville 

Best Bet: Wichita State +10.5

Louisville is going to win this game, but it won't be able to cover against a solid Wichita State team.

The Cardinals entered this tournament as the No. 1 overall seed and they have only enhanced that view with a dominant tourney run. With their intense defense leading the way, the Cardinals' closest margin of victory was its eight-point win over Oregon in the Sweet 16. 

On the season, the Cardinals are second in the nation in opponent turnovers per possession, and they should be able to force the Shockers into their share of them. The Shockers are 109th in turnovers per possession at 12.7 per game. 

However, during the tournament, they have been better as they are averaging 11.5 turnovers per game. 

Ultimately, it is that pressure defense which will wear the Shockers down, but their improved ball handling and these other key areas will allow them to keep it close. 

The biggest advantage the Shockers will enjoy in this game will come as they battle for offensive rebounds. 

The Shockers are 14th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage. The Cardinals are 177th in the nation in defensive rebound percentage. 

Also, the Shockers defense has been solid. In this tourney, opponents are shooting 34.3 percent from the field and 25.3 percent from beyond the arc.

The Shockers have done a nice job of forcing opponents into bad shots by limiting dribble penetration. That is a big key to the Cardinals' attack, and the Shockers will be able to throw them off their rhythm by not allowing the talented Louisville guards into the lane. 

We also have to factor in the terrible injury to Kevin Ware, which CBS' Jeff Goodman details. In the three tourney games leading up to the Elite Eight, Ware was providing 20 minutes and just under seven points per contest. 

His absence chips away at Louisville's depth, which helps it play at such an intense level on the defensive end for the full 40 minutes. 

This all sets up for what should be an excellent game, but in the end, Louisville will still be able to wear the Shockers down and pull out a 72-67 win.

Michigan vs. Syracuse

Best Bet: Michigan -2.5 

I love this matchup. For starters, we have a great battle at point guard with Syracuse's Michael Carter-Williams and Michigan's Trey Burke. 

Both of these guys are likely lottery picks, and both have been excellent in this tournament. 

Burke has been destroying teams in this tournament, and in his last three tourney games he is averaging 18.7 points, eight assists and four rebounds per game. 

Meanwhile, in his last three games, Carter-Williams is averaging 16 points, 3.3 assists and five rebounds per game. 

While Burke is a better scorer than Carter-Williams, MCW is the better defender.

Of course, he defends while functioning in the Oranges' 2-3 zone, and they are playing that zone to perfection.

For the season, the Orange have Pomeroy rankings' fifth-most efficient defense, and the reality is, they are playing at a far higher level than that now. Their Elite Eight win over Marquette proves that. 

The Orange held Marquette to 39 points in the Elite Eight—the Golden Eagles' previous season low was 47 points. Earlier in the season, on Feb. 25, Marquette hung 74 points on the Orange.

However, if there is a team that can handle this defense, it is Michigan. The Wolverines have the nation's most efficient offense in the Pomeroy rankings, and they have been outstanding in this tournament. 

In their tourney run, Michigan has averaged 78.8 points while shooting 49 percent from the field and 40 percent on threes.

This is going to put the pressure on the Orange's pedestrian offense.

For the season, the Orange are 123rd in field-goal percentage at 44 percent. They were just a hair under that mark in their Sweet 16 win over Indiana, and against Marquette the Orange hit just 38 percent from the floor. 

Syracuse has relied on solid offensive rebounding to help cope with its poor shooting, and it is 12th in the nation in offensive-rebound percentage. This would appear to be a big advantage in this game for 'Cuse as the Wolverines check in at 78th in the nation in opponent offensive rebound percentage. 

However, Michigan has been tougher on the glass in this tournament with the emergence of 6'10" freshman Mitch McGary. For the season, McGary averages 6.1 rebounds per game. He is averaging 11.5 boards in this tournament, and that presence is enough to tip the scales in Michigan's favor. 

The Wolverines will pull out a 64-59 victory.