Why Parity in College Basketball Means We'll See a No. 16 Beat a No. 1 Soon

When March hits and it comes time to fill out NCAA Tournament brackets, there are four picks that are normally a lock when trying to determine the outcomes in the first round: the No. 1 always beats the No. 16.

Now, while there have been some close calls in the past, the top-ranked teams have always found ways to prevent the upset from happening. But just because the No. 1 hasn't lost doesn't mean that trend will continue for very long.

Yes, a little luck needs to be in the No. 16's favor in order to pull off the greatest upset in modern-day sports, but here are a few other factors that will lead to a No. 16 advancing to the Round of 32 in the next few years.

6. Stars Need to Shine

The top teams in the tournament are not the only ones with top prospects out of high school. Granted, teams like Kentucky, Kansas and North Carolina get most of the McDonald's All-Americans, lately more and more talent winds up at the smaller schools as well.

Since the bigger schools still have most of the talent on the floor, the stars for the underdogs have to show up on the biggest stage. 

When the Murray State Racers threw Ronald "Popeye" Jones onto the floor against the Michigan State Spartans in 1990, it was a closer game than was expected. Although Michigan State pulled off the four-point win, Jones put in 37 for Murray State, almost leading his team to an overtime victory.

Much like Jones, Southern University guard Derick Beltran put on one of his best games this season when he dropped 21 points in his team's attempt to upset the Gonzaga Bulldogs.

Both Jones and Beltran bested their collegiate career averages when they played in the NCAA Tournament. Even though one man's efforts aren't enough, it certainly aids in their team's chances of beating a No. 1 seed.

5. The No. 1 Seed Is Vastly Overrated

Sometimes it's not what you bring to the table when taking down a giant; it's actually about what the giant lacks. Sometimes a team that is ranked No. 1 isn't all that it's cracked up to be.

Southern University almost took down the Gonzaga Bulldogs because of one thing: Gonzaga really didn't belong at the top spot in the first place.

When Gonzaga became the No. 1 team in the country, they were busy taking down opponents in the West Coast Conference, a conference that only sent one other team, Saint Mary's, to the NCAA Tournament.

Gonzaga went almost two months without playing a ranked team since they lost to Butler on the road Jan. 19. They came into the tournament without facing the competition that is in the Big 10 or Atlantic Coast Conference.

Without playing great competition for that long, teams tend to relax and take it easy in some games. Plus No. 1 seeds are notorious for taking it easy in the Round of 64. If a team like Gonzaga relaxes for too long, they could find themselves at the wrong end of of an upset.

4. The Tournament Committee Does the No. 16 Seed No Justice

This year, the Oregon Ducks were 28-8 and won the PAC-12 conference tournament while beating a ranked UCLA Bruin team twice.

So when they were given a No. 12 ranking in the tournament, sports media and other fans were a little confused over the committee's decision.

Southern University might have been underrated as well. This wasn't just a team that caught a Gonzaga Bulldog team off guard, this team was one of the best defenses in the NCAA this year.

On selection Sunday, some teams might want to be ranked a little low. It gives a little motivation to that one team that was wronged and should worry the No. 1 that has to play them.

3. A Play-in Game Helps

Since the NCAA tournament was expanded to 68 teams and added three more play-in games in 2011, at least one team in the "First Four" has won their next game in the bracket.

Last year, No. 12 South Florida beat No. 5 Temple on their way to advancing before losing to the No. 13 Ohio Bobcats. This year No. 13 La Salle Explorers took care of Boise State before advancing to the Sweet 16.

The best team in opening-round history was Shaka Smart's Virginia Commonwealth Rams in 2011. After earning a No. 11 seed, Virginia Commonwealth crashed the tournament party and went from "First Four" to Final Four.

Winning a play-in game gives momentum to the team that does. If the right team builds enough confidence, they'll be dancing to the Round of 32 after taking down No. 1.

2. Injuries (or Lack There Of) Help Too

No. 16 has beaten No. 1 once. While it hasn't happened in the men's game, in 1998, the Stanford Cardinal's women's program saw firsthand how injuries can decide the outcome of a game.

With two starters out due to ACL tears, the Lady Cardinals lost to Harvard, 71-67.

I don't wish injuries on any athlete, but we can't deny that injuries do happen. 

If Ben McLemore went down with an injury and couldn't play, then how does that factor in to Kansas's narrow, 64-57, win over Western Kentucky University? If Kelly Olynyk tore his ACL, then his big second half doesn't happen and Southern has a better chance of beating Gonzaga.

1. The One-and-Done Rule Could Give the No. 16 Seed and Advantage

Every year, it seems like the Kentucky Wildcats get the top recruits. According to ESPN, the 2013-14 college basketball season is going to be now different. As of now, the University of Kentucky has commitments from six of the top 18 players in the country and four in the top seven. 

Since head coach John Calipari took the job in 2009, he has always recruited the top high school talent in the nation. But that might be why an upset is looming for other teams that recruit this way as well.

Most top recruits leave college after one year thanks to college basketball's one-and-done rule. With that the players are younger, less mature and have less chemistry with the rest of their teammates.

That could prove an advantage for a No. 16 when it comes to the tournament. Normally being a smaller, lesser-known school, players will avoid the draft and remain in college.

That added experience and maturity could prove to factor in a game if it's close in crunch time. Look at the University of Miami (Fla.) this year. Normally not known for basketball, they use their age to an advantage when taking on opponents.

It's going to take more than just one or two of these factors to come in to play in order for the greatest upset of all time to happen. Quite a few stars have to align, but it will happen, and soon.