Sweet 16 Teams on Upset Alert

I suppose we should establish some ground rules before launching into our NCAA tournament upset watch for the round of 16.

Ground rule No. 1: Michigan State beating Duke does not qualify. I need more than one seed line separating my teams before I pull out the big "U." Besides, any team coached by Tom Izzo can be reasonably expected to win every March game it plays.

Ground rule No. 2: There are no other ground rules.

All right, let's get to it.

Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of KenPom.com.

Kansas, No. 1 Seed (South Region)

Opponent: Michigan (No. 4 seed)

Reason for Concern: Point guard play

Staring down potential Player of the Year recipient Trey Burke is always scary, but it's doubly disconcerting for the Jayhawks considering how spotty their own point guard play has been this year.

Elijah Johnson and Naadir Tharpe both sport turnover rates north of 20 percent, evidence that neither has exhibited full control over the Kansas offense. In fact, coach Bill Self was so disconsolate with the duo's play back in early February that he told reporters, "We don't have a point guard" (h/t NBCSports.com).

Matters have improved somewhat since then, but ball-handling remains a potential Achilles' heel for this club.

Now enter Burke, arguably the nation's best point guard. Thanks to his lightning-quick first step and fantastic decision-making, Michigan has the lowest turnover rate in the country.

There's a general sense that guard play is more important in the NCAA tournament than it is during the regular season. I'm not sure if the data supports that conclusion, but the Wolverines have the clear edge in that regard.

Ohio State, No. 2 Seed (West Region)

Opponent: Arizona (No. 6 seed)

Reason for Concern: Semi-away game

You could make the argument that Ohio State wouldn't have beat Iowa State in the round of 32 if that game was played outside the state of Ohio.

Referee bias in favor of home teams is a documented statistical truth, and it sure seemed like the Buckeyes had the benefit of the whistle at the end of their 78-75 win.

Arizona won't have the same home-crowd advantage playing in Los Angeles as Thad Matta's team had in Dayton, but one would expect the Wildcats to at least have a rooting majority. Mix in the upset-hungry La Salle/Wichita State partisans, and the Buckeyes should be at an audible disadvantage.

On the court, Arizona, at bare minimum, has the athletes to hang with Ohio State.

The Wildcats don't have single scorer as good as Deshaun Thomas or a single defender who has an impact like Aaron Craft. But among Mark Lyons, Solomon Hill, Nick Johnson and Brandon Ashley, Sean Miller's team has the length and quickness to bother the Buckeyes.

On paper, this still looks like an Ohio State win, but winning in unfriendly environments is never easy.

Indiana, No. 1 Seed (East Region)

Opponent: Syracuse (No. 4 seed)

Reason for Concern: Trouble inside

When looking for potential upsets, it's always good to start with a glaring statistical discrepancy. Take, for example, the fact that Syracuse leads the nation in blocked-shot percentage. Indiana, meanwhile, ranks 277th in percentage of attempts blocked.

Sounds like the Hoosiers might have trouble scoring inside against the Orange, and anecdotal evidence largely supports that notion.

Syracuse has one of the nation's best post defenders in Rakeem Christmas, and Jim Boeheim's teams have always excelled at shutting down the painted area. Thanks to its legendary 2-3 zone, Syracuse has ranked among the nation's five best in blocked-shot percentage four seasons running.

Now, let's turn to Indiana. Cody Zeller is the Hoosiers' only true post player, and he has struggled on occasion with more athletic front lines. 

In two games against Minnesota, the Big Ten's best shot-blocking team, Zeller averaged 13.5 points per game on 47.5 percent shooting. Perhaps even more telling, Zeller averaged significantly fewer field-goal attempts and fewer free-throw attempts in those two games compared to his season averages.

Obviously, we should be careful with small sample sizes, but the evidence we have says that Syracuse's defense could be a tough draw for Zeller in the half court.

Indiana is such a superlative shooting team that the Hoosiers might not need Zeller's offense to prosper. But the situation bears monitoring.

Florida, No. 3 Seed (South Region)

Opponent: Florida Gulf Coast (No. 15 seed)

Reason for Concern: Gremlins 

I don't exactly recall what Len Elmore was referring to—or if he was referring to anything at all—but at one point during Florida Gulf Coast's round of 64 win over Georgetown, the longtime color commentator said, "There are gremlins in this building."

Approximately 20 seconds later, FGCU's Chase Fieler threw down the dunk of the tournament, lending an improbable air of prescience to Elmore's seemingly inane statement. I mean, maybe there were gremlins in the Wells Fargo Center. Maybe there is an army of fiendish creatures assisting Florida Gulf Coast during its Cinderella run.

At this point, I can't think of a more convincing explanation. On paper, there's no way Florida should lose this game. The Gators are among the nation's five best teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They have better athletes at every position and the kind of three-point shooting that should give FGCU headaches.

But there's something crazy going on in Fort Myers. At this point, with all the stupefying things the Eagles have accomplished, how could we not put Florida on upset alert?