NCAA Bracket 2013: Top Teams with Major Concerns After Thursday's Games

Thursday’s round of 64 matchups were filled with thrilling upsets, last-second shots and ascendant individual performances, but the most notable takeaways may have been from Final Four contenders.

In a tournament where top seeds were expected to come crashing down early, very few shockers were had. Harvard defeated New Mexico to become the first No. 14 seed since 2010 to get past the round of 64, but the only other major upsets were Oregon and California winning as No. 12 seeds—not exactly shockers if you keep up with the Vegas odds.

What did happen, though, is many near-upsets and mishaps from top contenders. Superstar players faltered, top-seeded teams nearly made history in the wrong way and plenty of other shocking results leave questions about notable teams heading into the round of 32. Rectifying these deficiencies will be paramount over the next 48 hours, especially if they want to avoid becoming a victim of the always-underrated second-game upsets. 

With that in mind, here is a complete breakdown of a few top seeds that should be concerned following Thursday’s action.

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West: No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs

They say a win is a win in the NCAA tournament, but Gonzaga stretched the limits of that expression on Thursday. Facing off against an extremely game Southern squad, the Bulldogs very nearly became first No. 1 seed to ever fall in the round of 64 before barely scraping to a 64-58 win.

What was perhaps the most disconcerting facet of Gonzaga’s near-loss was how even the two sides looked. Each time the Bulldogs would gain a little momentum with a Kevin Pangos three-pointer or Kelly Olynyk jam, Derick Beltran or Malcolm Miller was there to answer. Southern was tied with Gonzaga at 54-54 with less than four minutes remaining prior to finishing on a 10-4 run. 

In what seems like a historical near-upset—this was the closest final result any No. 16 seed had gotten since 1996, per ESPN Stats & Information—the Jaguars did not play out-of-their-minds basketball. 

They made fewer than 40 percent of their shots and got out-rebounded by the Bulldogs 36-20. Strip the names and players away from the box score, and it looks more like Gonzaga was the underdog team who got lucky breaks and played the game of its life. Without Olynyk scoring 15 of the team’s first 17 points in the second half—an aberration—Southern may have pulled the game out.

Spoiler alert: You don’t want to hear the words “aberration” and “lucky” when you’re a No. 1 seed—especially versus one of the six worst teams in the Dance. 

Going forward, Gonzaga should fare better versus Wichita State in the round of 32. The Shockers aren’t much of a defensive juggernaut, ranking 69th in opponent effective field-goal percentage, per Ken Pomeroy (subscription required). That compares favorably to Southern’s juggernaut unit, which allowed opposing teams to have the second-worst effective field-goal percentage in the nation, per Pomeroy. 

However, once Gonzaga hits the Sweet 16, all bets are off. Wisconsin is a stalwart defensive club in its own right, a physical squad that can body up with the best in the nation. If the Badgers make it through their first two games, the Bulldogs may be in a heap of trouble come next weekend.

East: No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles

Without the heroics of Vander Blue, Marquette would have been the biggest upset victim of Thursday’s action. The Golden Eagles needed a torrid comeback and some untimely turnovers from Davidson to defeat the No. 13 seed Wildcats 59-58 on a last-second layup by Blue.

Down by four points with 20 seconds to go, Marquette looked dead in the water. Then Jamil Wilson knocked down a clutch three-pointer, Davidson’s De’Mon Brooks made a critical turnover and Blue finished the jaw-dropping comeback.

What the game encompassed was quintessential Marquette. The pace was methodical, the shooting mostly wretched and the athletes on the perimeter defense strong in parts but showing cracks in others. Davidson’s Jake Cohen scored a game-high 20 points, knocking down shots from all over the floor as Marquette struggled to get through the Wildcats’ screen-heavy offense.

Alas, Marquette survived and will face off against sixth-seeded Butler on Saturday. The Bulldogs did not exactly look sterling themselves on Thursday, shooting only 36.4 percent in their 68-56 win over Bucknell. What Marquette and Butler do have in common, though, is their strong efforts on the defensive end. Butler held Bucknell’s Mike Muscala, a human double-double machine, to nine points and 10 rebounds on 4-of-17 shooting.

That impressive defensive performance should worry Marquette. The Eagles will be in for yet another close contest—the first team to 60 may well win the game—and Butler’s Andrew Smith has emerged as quite the presence down low.

After quite nearly losing to a No. 14 seed in Davidson, Buzz Williams will have to do a much better job of preparing his team this time around. Either that or the adage “never bet against Brad Stevens” will once again come true in March.

South: No. 4 Michigan Wolverines

Unlike Marquette and Gonzaga, Michigan did not need luck or a last-second miracle to defeat its round of 64 opponent, South Dakota State. Star point guard Trey Burke had a wretched contest, shooting just 2-of-12 from the field en route to six points, but Glenn Robinson III and Tim Hardaway Jr. both picked up the slack by scoring a game-high 21 points apiece en route to a 71-56 win.

Burke’s bad game is disconcerting only on the most superficial level. He’s the superstar and he’s expected to excel when games matter most. But the fact that he struggled is more of an aberration than anything the Wolverines should be concerned about going forward. 

They played stalwart defense versus South Dakota State star Nate Wolters, seemingly rectifying some of the major problems that hurt the team down the stretch. Michigan should be pleased or even thrilled with its effort considering Burke’s performance and the stepping up of secondary stars.

What should concern the Wolverines is who they play against in the round of 32. 

Of any team that took the court on Thursday, there was no team more impressive than the fifth-seeded Virginia Commonwealth Rams. VCU eviscerated No. 12 seed Akron from start to finish en route to walking away with a 88-42 victory—the largest scoring margin of the NCAA tournament thus far. Employing their patented “Havoc” defense, the Rams forced 21 turnovers and sat most of their starters in the second half after building a massive lead.

To avoid a similar fate, Michigan will have to rely on Burke to have a far better in his second go-around. VCU’s full-court pressure destroys opposing ball-handlers on a nightly basis with complex traps and intense pressure on the ball. While the onus will not be completely on Burke—no point guard can break a press by his lonesome—all eyes will be on him. He’s the lottery pick, a guy who many believe should be the National Player of the Year.

Without him performing at that level on Saturday, Michigan may share the same fate as Akron. 

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