NCAA Bracket 2013: Mid-Major Stars Who Will Emerge in Round of 64 Games

In college basketball folklore, March is where the stars are made. It’s where ascendant talents emerge from all over the country and create a name for themselves on the national stage.

Michael Jordan, Patrick Ewing and Carmelo Anthony all cut their teeth with brilliance in March. With the round of 64 teams finally set for the 2013 NCAA tournament, we finally have an opportunity to look at the full field of potential breakout players. 

One thing before we begin: The concept of stars “emerging” in March is mostly a falsehood. They were there prior to the NCAA tournament, plugging away and putting together brilliant performances on a nightly basis. Most fans—especially ones who check in during March Madness—don’t watch college basketball on a nightly basis.

And even those casual fans who do watch regularly don’t get to check in on all of the action. They know the Trey Burkes, Cody Zellers and Mason Plumlees of the world. That’s easy enough. What’s important in filling out brackets—especially when scrounging for upsets—is identifying the mid-major players who shine just as bright (if not brighter) than their major-conference counterparts.

Who are those players in this year’s tournament? Here is a complete breakdown of a few guys who should emerge from mid-majors and ascend to national adoration (at least short term) in the round of 64. 

Anthony Bennett (F, UNLV Rebels)

For scouts who judge collegiate players based on their potential in the NBA, Bennett is already a stud. The former 5-star recruit is averaging 16.1 points and 8.1 rebounds per game this season, living up every bit to his billing as a future stud.

ESPN’s Chad Ford ranks Bennett as the fifth-best player in the 2013 NBA draft, and that’s a ranking that may only improve with a great performance in March. 

Though respected, the problem with Bennett is that he has been doing his damage in the Mountain West Conference. While the Mountain West had the best conference RPI in the nation, it’s still viewed as a mid-major—and thus unworthy of regular-season recognition via nationally televised games.

Luckily, Bennett will be getting his proper national showcase starting Thursday versus California. The Rebels and Golden Bears play in the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup in the East Region, where Bennett will instantly be able to prove his worth.

According to Ken Pomeroy’s advanced metrics (subscription required), Cal is one of the most efficient defenses in the country—especially inside. The Bears rank 31st in the nation in effective field-goal percentage and allow opposing teams to shoot just 42 percent on two pointers this season. That’s thanks mostly to the team’s abundant size, which forces altered shots and hesitation in the paint.

One thing Bennett does not do is hesitate when taking shots inside.

Bennett is one of the more explosive athletes in the nation, a guy who can consistently overpower opposing big men in the post. He can also stretch out past the three-point line, which should take the Bears' big men out of their comfort zone and lead to some easier buckets for teammates.

Though he may not wind up having his best scoring performance, Bennett will get a great opportunity to flash the all-around game he’s developed thus far. With any luck, he’ll help his team and draft stock at the same time.

Mike Muscala (C, Bucknell Bison)

Much like Bennett, Muscala goes underappreciated more for the conference he plays in than his actual on-court performance. The senior center has been dominating the Patriot League for each of the past two seasons, throwing together nightly double-doubles with a complete nonchalance.

Heading into the Big Dance, Muscala is averaging 19 points, 11.2 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game. He has 22 double-doubles in 33 games this season, has scored below double digits just once and has three games where he’s gone 25-15—otherwise known as pre-Los Angeles Dwight Howard numbers.

His opportunities against elite competition have obviously been limited. Bucknell played just two games all season versus RPI Top 50 teams, one of which was versus noted defensive sieve La Salle. 

The other, against Missouri, is far more notable and impressive. Facing off against solid interior defenders in Laurence Bowers and Alex Oriakhi, Muscala treated them like Patriot League no-names. He finished with 25 points, 14 rebounds and four assists as the Bison came within two points of pulling off the upset on the road.

It’s certainly a limited sample size. As is Muscala’s excellent play in the NIT last season. But it’s all we have to go on until he takes on Butler’s noted defensive stopper Andrew Smith on Thursday. Smith did a wonderful job of locking down both Cody Zeller and Kelly Olynyk earlier in the year and is a tough, smart on-ball defender.

Where Smith has trouble is one place Muscala excels—drawing fouls. The Butler seven-footer has fouled out of six games this season and finished with four fouls in nine others. Muscala has drawn 6.8 free throws per game thus far and has drained nearly 79 percent of his attempts.

Bucknell has a very good opportunity of pulling an upset in this No. 6 vs. No. 11 matchup over in the East Region. If the Bison do, it will be because Muscala again ascended against elite competition. 

Doug McDermott (F, Creighton)

Any college basketball fan worth his or her weight in orange leather knows the legend of Doug McDermott. He's the small forward with the sweetest stroke in the land who descended upon Creighton to bring the Bluejays wonderful years of joy before trying to become Kyle Korver 2.0 in the NBA.

For those who haven’t been paying attention: Yes, this is the same McDermott guy you all fell in love with after reading 300 words about him last season. Same player; only he’s back and better than ever.

McDermott’s 2012-13 season was something out of jump-shooting folklore. The junior forward is averaging 23.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, but what’s been most impressive is his efficiency. McDermott is shooting a whopping 56.1 percent from the field, including 49.7 from beyond the arc, and is fourth in the nation in true shot percentage, per Ken Pomeroy (subscription required).

That’s all undoubtedly impressive, but consider this: No one else on Creighton’s entire roster averages double-figure points per game. McDermott is the man, the only man, and teams still cannot find a way to mitigate his effect. He has gone over the 30-point mark seven times and has scored more than 25 in nearly half of Creighton’s games.

Guarding McDermott is nearly an impossible task—even for a defensive juggernaut like Cincinnati. The Bearcats rank 15th in defensive efficiency this season and ninth in effective field-goal percentage against, per Ken Pomeroy (subscription required). They have the type of stoppers on the outside who could halt McDermott’s roll from outside—theoretically.

In practice, the Creighton star has too great of a track record to dismiss. Cincinnati certainly has the potential to stop him and everyone’s favorite schadenfreudian Duke stopper in the Midwest Region, but we’ll believe it when we see it. 

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