NCAA Bracket 2013: Breaking Down the Best Upset Picks from Each Region

With first-round festivities getting the madness underway, filling out a 2013 NCAA tournament bracket has begun evolving from an experimental novelty to a full-blown obsession for the college basketball die hards.

As we finally begin settling the field of teams actually playing on Thursday and Friday, the field starts to crystallize. The effect of the No. 16 seeds is negligible at best. They’re playing to get treated like a pit bull’s chew toy for 40 minutes by a top-ranked opponent. 

However, the other two first-round matchups matter—especially for those still looking to make their upset picks. Saint Mary’s press-break offense looked fantastic against Middle Tennessee; perhaps good enough for many to hesitate before making Memphis their sleeper Sweet 16 squad.

Picking sleepers and upsets may seem like an unscientific novelty for most. After all, 56-year-old Suzie Q from office building six who makes fantastic graham cracker cake but has never watched a game of basketball in her live always wins anyway. 

But if you truly study the matchups by using the numbers and—gasp—actually watching a little game film, finding seeding deficiencies is not that hard. These teams aren’t “guaranteed” to win because, well, of course they’re not, but here is a look most likely upset candidates in each region for the Round of 64. 

West Region: No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels (vs. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers)

Coming into the SEC tournament with their backs against the wall, Ole Miss did what no other bubble team was able to do: got the job done most when it counted. Marshall Henderson scored more than 20 points in each of Rebels’ three victories, including hitting that figure alone in a two-point victory over Missouri in their first game.

The end result was an SEC championship and a No. 12 seed—not exactly a ringing endorsement to the conference as a whole. But, alas, Ole Miss found itself in an awfully good situation heading into its Round of 64 matchup. 

These two sides will represent two polar opposite ends of the basketball spectrum. Ole Miss runs at one of the highest paces in college basketball, ranking 12th in adjusted tempo, per Ken Pomeroy. Only four teams in all of college basketball have attempted more shots per game than the Rebels’ 62 a night. 

On the other side, Wisconsin continues to run Bo Ryan’s “swing” offense to the disdain of just about everyone who enjoys watchable offensive basketball. The Badgers are 310th in adjusted tempo out of 347 Division I teams, and they rank outside the top 100 in shots attempted. Ryan’s slowed down attack has been a staple since he arrived, and that’s not going to change anytime soon. 

It’s a classic turtle-hare case. While in most cases it’s advisable to take the lovable Chelonii—and especially during this slowed-down, low-possession era in college basketball—this is one of those rare instances where the faster approach should lead to a win.

Henderson’s excellent play has the potential evaporate as quickly as it came, but it’s hard to bet against him when he has the hot hand. The junior guard has a 3-of-18 performance from beyond the arc lingering in him at some point, but he’s a player who has 20 or more points in each of his past five contests. Betting against him hitting the mark again is a losing proposition. 

What truly sells Ole Miss as an upset waiting to happen is the inefficiencies of Wisconsin. Though Ryan’s teams have always been pace-averse, they have almost always been super effective. Not this season. According to Ken Pomeroy, the Badgers rank 52nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, which is the lowest he’s ever measured for Wisconsin. 

East Region: No. 11 Bucknell Bison (vs. No. 6 Butler Bulldogs)

Falling in love with Butler as an NCAA tournament darling is quite easy. The Bulldogs have two Final Four appearances in the past three seasons and they have victories over half of the No. 1 seeds in the Big Dance (Indiana, Gonzaga). 

Playing pre-conceived “gut” instincts that tell you Butler is on the precipice of another run would be a losing proposition. Though the Bulldogs have those two victories over national championship contenders, they also have a season-long track record of getting better results than they should.

According to Ken Pomeroy’s “luck” metric, which measures how far a team deviated from its expected winning percentage, Butler was the seventh “luckiest” team. That’s higher than every other NCAA tournament team other than Montana, and signals an impending reversion to the mean.

When that comes is certainly up for debate. Bucknell just has the first opportunity, one that is more than within reach when the two sides face off on Thursday.

In fact, the Bison have a pretty good shot against just about any team in the nation thanks to their size advantage. Though mid-major schools oftentimes get a reputation of small-balling and jacking up threes, Bucknell ranks 35th in the nation in effective height, per Pomeroy. 

Leading that big man charge is center Mike Muscala, who may be the single most underrated player in the nation. A 6’11” senior, Muscala is averaging 19 points, 11.2 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game, leading the team in all three categories. He has fantastic footwork down low, can finish over either shoulder and stretches out to right around 16 feet with some comfort. 

Butler center Andrew Smith has done a very solid job against notable opposing centers this year. Kelly Olynyk and Cody Zeller both had good, not great performances against him earlier this season and he’s a solid underneath presence overall. 

However, Smith is also prone to fouls—especially early in the contest. If he cannot stay on the court, Muscala will have a field day against Butler’s remaining defenders and Bucknell will pull away for a victory.  Games almost never come down to the center position nowadays, but keep your eye on the low block when Butler and Bucknell face off on Thursday.

South Region: No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners (vs. No. 7 San Diego State Aztecs)

Overall, the South Region does not lend itself to many upsets. There are plenty of games that will be pretty close (UCLA vs. Minnesota, for instance) but Oklahoma is the only team that scouts out as actually able to pull off the job.

Led by a stable of strong scorers from all over the floor, the Sooners are one of the deepest teams in the entire tournament. They run nine deep in the rotation with players who each get 15 or more minutes a night. 

San Diego State head coach Steve Fisher and Kruger know one another well. The Sooners coach spent six seasons at UNLV, where the two sides battled in the Mountain West conference against one another. Over time, they struck up a friendship that has carried on past Kruger’s acceptance of the Oklahoma job. 

You could even tell there were some mixed emotions from Fisher when hearing of his matchup.

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“You’d rather not play someone you have an affinity for,” Fisher said (per the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Mark Ziegler). “I’d like to have Lon Kruger go deep in the tournament. But one of us is going home after the first game.”

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What this means, more than anything, is that these two sides know each other. Fisher and Kruger know each other’s tendencies, their defensive schemes and where they like to get shots in the offense. A razor-thin margin is almost inevitable whenever these two sides meet.

As for which side will win, that’s a difficult call. San Diego State has the best overall player in Jamaal Franklin, while Oklahoma’s aforementioned depth should allow Kruger to keep the defensive pressure high.

The Sooners may not win. It’s very possible that this region will go straight chalk—the South remains by far the likeliest of the four to do so. Among underdogs, Oklahoma simply has the best chance due to its depth and familiarity with San Diego State’s style.

Midwest Region: No. 11 Saint Mary’s Gaels (vs. No. 6 Memphis Tigers)

For those wondering how Saint Mary’s would be able to handle an extremely athletic team, the answer was quite well. The Gaels continually broke Middle Tennessee’s dreaded 1-3-1 full-court pressure—a look that’s drawn many comparisons to VCU’s “havoc” system—and took control of their opening round game to advance.

Their reward for that triumph is a matchup against an even more athletic team in Memphis. The Tigers are a top-20 defense in terms of overall efficiency, steal percentage and block percentage, per Ken Pomeroy. That’s fully a result of their relentless on-ball pressure and bevy of otherworldly athletes.

What Saint Mary’s—and in particular guard Matthew Dellavedova—proved is that it could handle the pressure on Tuesday. Running a beautiful press break, the Gaels barely broke a sweat after an initial adjustment period and wound up with just seven turnovers, less than half of the 15.9 per game Middle Tennessee had forced this season. 

Saint Mary’s guards were particularly fantastic. Dellavedova and Stephen Holt combined for 40 points, including seven three-pointers—many of which came off press breaks. 

Obviously, Memphis and Middle Tennessee are two different teams. The talent level for the Tigers is way more than one step higher, and they have lost exactly once since mid-December. This isn’t exactly a walk in the park upset for Saint Mary’s to pull off.

What the team proved, though, on Tuesday is that it can handle defensive pressure. The Gaels’ chances are almost wholly based on their offensive brilliance, where they rank 10th in overall efficiency, per Pomeroy. 

With Memphis undoubtedly looking to break the ball-handler and force turnovers, it will be critical that Saint Mary’s has a similarly strong performance. If it does, upset city will be waiting in the wings. 

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