March Madness 2013 Odds: Championship Favorites That Will Fail to Reach Finals

Winning the NCAA tournament takes more than just talent. On college basketball’s biggest stage, momentum plays a huge role in how far a team advances in the Big Dance.

Upsets ruled the college basketball landscape this year, and inconsistency was a factor for many teams down the stretch. Some of the nation’s top squads failed to sustain enough momentum to escape their conference tournaments unscathed.

Indiana, Louisville, Florida, Gonzaga and Kansas headline the list of candidates with the best odds of winning the tournament this year (per Bovada.lv). In order to earn a trip to the finals, a team must sustain enough momentum to string together five wins in the tournament. Of those five teams, only three (Louisville, Gonzaga and Kansas) were able to accomplish that feat in the regular season since February 7.

Sixty-six teams will fail to reach the finals this year, including several favorites to bring home college basketball’s top prize. Let’s take a look at the 10 teams with the best odds of winning the tournament and highlight a few that will falter before reaching the final round.

Indiana (5/1)	Duke (12/1)
Louisville (5/1)	Miami (12/1)
Florida (7/1)	Ohio State (16/1)
Gonzaga (10/1)	Georgetown (20/1)
Kansas (10/1)	Michigan State (20/1)

*Odds acquired from Bovada.lv.

No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (16/1)

Ohio State is one of the hottest teams in the nation right now after finishing the season with eight straight wins and a Big Ten tournament title. Terrific defense sustained the Buckeyes down the stretch, but an inconsistent offense will be their undoing during the tournament.

Junior forward Deshaun Thomas is Ohio State’s only double-digit scorer this season, and when he fails to get hot, the Buckeyes struggle to score points. Nearly 10 points per game separate Thomas (19.5 PPG) from junior guard Aaron Craft, Ohio State’s second-leading scorer (9.9 PPG).

Defense wins championships, but every team needs to score points in the tournament. If the Buckeyes can’t get consistent production from Craft and third-leading scorer Lenzelle Smith Jr., a deep tournament run will be out of the question.

Ohio State will be tested from the onset, beginning with a tough matchup against Iona. The Gaels are second in the country in scoring average (80.7), and if Ohio State’s defense doesn’t step up to the plate, the Buckeyes will have little hope of running them down on the offensive end.

No. 3 Florida Gators (7/1)

Losses to Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky and Mississippi down the stretch raise some questions about the Florida Gators’ ability to play above their competition.

In the final month of the regular season, Florida failed to eclipse 70 points seven times, despite averaging nearly 72 points per contest throughout the year. Inconsistency isn’t the Gators’ biggest problem; lacking an elite scorer is.

Senior big man Erik Murphy and senior guards Kenny Boynton and Mike Rosario are all averaging better than 12 points per game this season. All three players have been key contributors at both ends of the floor, but none have emerged as a top scoring threat who can take over late in the game.

Florida has a ton of experience on its roster, but someone has to step up in the tournament. Without a dominant scoring presence to step up in the fourth quarter, Florida will be vulnerable against teams that have an elite scorer and big time shot-maker.

The South Region is loaded with talent from top to bottom, and in order for the Gators to emerge unscathed, they will have to get some big offensive performances from at least one key player. 

No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (5/1)

Indiana has been an enigmatic team this season. The Hoosiers look like the best squad in the country when they are playing well, but losses late in the year don’t bode well for their chances of making a championship run in the tournament.

Indiana was eliminated from the Big Ten tournament by Wisconsin on March 16 in a game in which the Hoosiers scored just 56 points. Against Ohio State on March 5, Indiana scored 58 points, and in both contests, Victor Oladipo combined for just 17 points on 7-for-18 shooting.

The Hoosiers have the depth to hang with any team in the country, but they can’t expect to make it very far in the tournament without key contributions from Oladipo and leading scorer Cody Zeller.

The East Region is arguably the weakest in the tournament, but reaching the finals could mean matchups with Miami and Kansas along the way. If Oladipo and Zeller don’t play their best basketball throughout the tournament, Indiana will struggle to score enough points to emerge from the right side of the bracket. 

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