NCAA Tournament 2013: Comparing Current Squads to Notable Teams of Years Past

There are many tools you can use to help you predict the NCAA tournament. One thing that can help you out is looking at the past to guess the future. 

College basketball teams change every year. A squad that did well last year will not necessarily repeat its success this time around. However, it is possible to make comparisons between rosters, style of play and results between teams in different years.

While the current programs will not necessarily win or lose in the same way that their doppelgangers did in previous years, this is a great starting point to help clarify the field.

Miami (FL) and 2012 Missouri

After coming in with low expectations last season (No. 25 in both major polls) Missouri had a very impressive season. The squad built up a 27-4 record in the regular season and won the Big 12 conference tournament.

With the team's momentum and veteran leadership (six of the seven players in the rotation were seniors), a deep run in the NCAA tournament was expected.

Unfortunately, the Tigers lost to Norfolk State in the first round, becoming one of two No. 2 seeds to lose to a No. 15 seed in 2012.

This year, Miami has a similar story. After starting unranked in the preseason polls, the Hurricanes came together and became one of the top teams in the country. They also earned a No. 2 seed after winning their conference tournament.

In addition, this is also a very veteran roster, with five of the top six scorers being seniors. Of course, no one on the roster has any NCAA tournament experience, while Missouri had at least a little.

As Nate Silver of the blog FiveThirtyEight notes, teams that greatly exceed expectations during the season tend to regress to the mean in the NCAA tournament. Missouri proved that to be right, and it is up to Miami to prove it wrong.

The Hurricanes have a relatively easy draw, but you should be wary of picking them to go too far.

Florida and 2006 Florida

There seems to be a split opinion on Florida this season. The Gators dominated the SEC, but struggles down the stretch caused the team to only get a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Even with seven losses, however, computer metrics consider this to be one of the top teams in the country. KenPom even rates Florida as the No. 1 squad in the nation with the fifth-best offense and second-best defense.

The last time the Gators were rated as the best team in the country by KenPom was in 2006. In that season, they had a nearly identical record at 27-6 entering the tournament, but the pace-adjusted stats gave them a lot more credit.

As you probably know, Billy Donovan took his No. 3 seed all the way to a national championship. With the entire starting lineup returning, the Gators won again in 2007.

While the 2006 version had a lot of talent with Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah and Al Horford, there was no true go-to scorer. All five starters averaged between 10 and 14.2 points per game.

The current group has a great deal of balance as well. There are five players averaging between nine and 12.6 points per game. 

In a year with no dominant teams, Florida is the squad that can sneak up on people once again like it did back in 2006.

Saint Louis and 2010 Butler

In 2010, Butler epitomized the Cinderella story as a small school that made a miraculous run to the national championship game before falling to Duke by two points.

However, the Bulldogs did not exactly sneak up on anyone that season. At least not anyone who was paying attention.

They beat good teams like Ohio State, played Georgetown tough and entered the NCAA tournament with a 28-4 record. While few expected the Bulldogs to win five games, they were still well-respected as a No. 5 seed.

This year, Saint Louis has even more respect as a No. 4 seed. The Billikens lost a close game to Kansas earlier in the season, beat New Mexico and was solid throughout the year with a 27-6 record.

Still, most people who have no watched the team play are expecting an early exit.

Saint Louis has the ability to surprise people, even in a tough bracket. Butler played very good defense and was able to beat both Syracuse and Kansas State, two very talented squads that season. 

The Billikens also play outstanding defense and have an opportunity to do the same this year. 

Belmont and 2006 George Mason

If you called George Mason's run in 2006, you either went to George Mason or you are lying.

The No. 11 seed went on an incredible run, beating Michigan State, North Carolina and Connecticut on the way to the Final Four.

While it is incredibly difficult to predict another 11-seed to go on a streak like this, Belmont is a team that has the ability to do that.

George Mason had five scorers average double-figures, but seniors Jai Lewis and Tony Skinn were the ones trusted to lead the team and make shots late.

Belmont is close to this mark, with Blake Johnson ranking fifth on the team at 9.7 points per game. However, the Bruins also have an elite player in senior Ian Clark. Kerron Johnson and Trevor Noack also provide veteran leadership and the ability to make big plays.

Although the 2006 Patriots were better inside scorers with Lewis and Will Thomas, Belmont can counter that with an ability to shoot from outside. The Bruins rank 18th in the nation with a 38.6 three-point percentage.

No one in the West region is unbeatable, and Belmont is a team that can shock the world and make a dramatic run to the Final Four. 

Don't forget to print out your bracket and follow along with the live bracket. Make your picks for the 2013 NCAA tournament here with the Bracket Challenge Game.

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