Bracketology 2013: Tournament Teams That Selection Committee Over-Seeded

Every year, the selection committee for the NCAA tournament has the unenviable task of identifying a field of 68 worthy teams and properly seeding them in order to set up a thrilling, unforgettable event.

For the most part, the committee does a great job given the restrictions and short amount of time they have to work with. However, there are always a few teams that are severely underrated or over-seeded in the Big Dance.

We’re here to focus on the latter group, as we think the public needs to be wary of these teams when filling out their brackets and trying to determine which schools will advance far in March Madness and which will be sent packing the first weekend.

Let’s take a look at three squads that just don’t deserve the seeding they were given.

 

No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners, South Region

The Sooners limped into the tourney having lost their regular-season finale against TCU and then immediately fell to Iowa State in the opening round of the Big 12 tournament.

Many felt they were squarely on the bubble and had a legitimate chance to miss the NCAA field altogether, but the selection committee awarded this group a No. 10 seed.

These Sooners wrapped up the season with an RPI of 42 and 3-7 record against opponents with a Top-50 RPI.

While Oklahoma did get a couple of big wins during the 2012-13 campaign—notably against then-No. 5 Kansas on Feb. 9—this squad just wasn’t consistent enough to warrant anything better than a No. 12 this March.

OU opens against the San Diego State Aztecs in the Round of 64—another team that was over-seeded, albeit mildly in comparison. We don’t think the Sooners have what it takes to get further than that first contest.

 

No. 6 Butler Bulldogs, East Region

Just looking at the statistics will show that the perennial tournament Cinderella was given far too much respect in terms of seeding.

While the Bulldogs did attain an RPI of 20, they played a weak non-conference schedule (No. 60 in the nation) and didn’t look that impressive in many of their wins over ranked opponents.

Ken Pomeroy has Butler listed as No. 52 in his rankings, a fair assessment given Butler’s performance this year. Jeff Sagarin, another notable basketball analyst, has the Bulldogs listed at No. 45.

Regardless of computer rankings, Butler doesn’t pass the “eye test” and seems ripe for a quick exit.

With a tough Round of 64 showdown with the Bucknell Bison looming, it wouldn’t be surprising to see an upset happen and the Bulldogs fall in their initial game this year.

 

No. 4 Kansas State, West Region

The Wildcats were extremely fortunate to draw a No. 4 seed, something we would have expected them to earn had they actually beat rival Kansas in the Big 12 tournament.

They hardly have any major wins over elite competition, barring a sweep of Oklahoma State and a nonconference win over Florida back in December.

Pomeroy put K-State at No. 30, while Sagarin was a bit more generous and slotted the Wildcats in at No. 20 on his big board.

It’s hard to imagine that this group will be able to make the kind of run the seeding suggests, especially with a Round of 64 game against a warmed-up Boise State or La Salle (coming off a First Four win) and then either Wisconsin or Ole Miss in the next round.

Had Kansas State picked up a few more convincing victories against ranked opponents or won the Big 12 title then we’d have no problem with this seeding, but we just don’t see them living up to it during the 2013 NCAA tournament.

 

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