Mathematical Connections to Wrestling: The WWE Draft's Unlikely Odds

I was in the middle of writing Part Two of my "Mathematical Connections to Wrestling" article when I felt inspired to write this. It covers the odds of certain events occurring in the WWE Draft, which I believe calls for a change in how it is billed.

The mathematics behind this article isn’t too hard in term of concepts, so I hope you can follow and enjoy.

---

The WWE Draft has always been billed as random, but as I sat watching the live draft—and then later the supplemental draft—I began to think that there were some huge mathematical improbabilities that I wanted to explore.

The concept of something being random is: any outcome has as much likelihood as another. However, due to the nature of probability, the odds that several of these events will occur in order or together can be significantly more.

The odds of flipping a coin and it landing on heads are 1:2. Not bad odds. But the odds of repeating this feat 100 times in a row is roughly one in a quadrillion quadrillion—pretty unlikely, I would say.

These kinds of compound probabilities produced some very improbable results during this year's draft, which I wish to evaluate fully.

Tag teams staying together

Anyone who was watching the supplemental draft yesterday would have been under the impression that several tag teams were bound for a split.

First Cryme Tyme, then the Colons, and finally the Bellas seemed bound for a split. But lo and behold, they weren’t. Their counterparts were drafted to the same show, and all three tag teams were saved.

So what are the odds of this happening?

Well, in total there are roughly 75 wrestlers working for the WWE, 36 of whom were drafted. That’s roughly a half of all superstars drafted.

So the odds of each member of a tag team being drafted are a half. As well as this, you have the choice of which brand to move to when drafted. As there are two possibilities, let's give the odds of moving to a specific brand a half as well.

The odds of Shad being drafted (as he was) are then a half. Which brand he moved to was irrelevant, as we are only concerned with the probability that JTG will join him.

Again, the probability of JTG being drafted is a half. Add to this the odds that he will move to the same brand as Shad, and you get one in four.

So the total probability that the tag team would be drafted together will be half times a quarter, which gives a one in eight chance. Not too unlikely, you say?

Considering the same thing happened to these three teams, the odds then increase to one-eighth cubed, which is 1/512. Starting to look less likely, isn’t it?

You may say that not all the tag teams were kept together, but when you consider the nature of their splits, they become irrelevant to these odds.

Miz and Morrison split on RAW, so a big deal could be made of it. Only the lesser tag teams like Hawkins and Ryder, and Zeke and Kendrick were split in the supplemental.

I know that although the draft is random only in kayfabe (real in wrestling) terms, surely the WWE could work in an angle where tag teams get moved together. Surely that’s not too much to ask.

Belts switching brands

This year we saw both the Intercontinental and US titles, and Women and Diva titles switch brands. Coincidence? Let’s see.

The odds that anyone within the WWE would be drafted are a half, as established before. So the odds that all four of these title holders would be drafted are one half to the power of four, which is: 1/16.

Then take into account the fact that all four were not only drafted, but also made a straight swap in terms of brands. The odds of one of them doing this are a half, as above, so the odds of all four directly swapping are again: 1/16.

The probability that both of these scenarios occur is then 1/16 squared, which is: 1/256. Again, this doesn’t look very likely, does it?

Big names moving on the main draft

This next section provides the most damning evidence that the draft is not random. Thought the last odds were high? Check these out...

Ever find it bizarre that although the draft is random, all the big names seem to move on the main draft on RAW? Well, probability can provide some evidence to your suspicions.

There were 12 picks made on Monday in the main draft, followed by 24 picks in the supplemental draft. I, personally, thought that most of the draftees could be considered big names.

At this point I would like to clarify what I mean by big names, and put an estimation on their numbers.

There are obviously some wrestlers in the WWE that are more popular than others, and as such are treated accordingly. These wrestlers are given more air time, hold championships more often, and are generally liked by the fans more and are on the whole considered the most important wrestlers.

In all, I would say that one third of wrestlers fall into this bracket, roughly 25. This proportion is justified in the fact that one-third of draft picks occurred on RAW.

So what are the odds that only big names will be drafted on RAW?

Think of this situation as if there are 25 black balls and 50 white balls in a bag. I want to know what the odds of picking 12 black balls in a row is, without putting a ball back in once it is picked.

The odds of the first person being drafted being an important wrestler are 25/75. This is due to the fact that there are 75 to pick from in total, and there are 25 that would fall into the bracket of a “big name.”

After this, the odds of the next person being drafted being are big name are 24/74, as there is one less in each category.

This continues until the last pick, where the odds of the 12th person being a big name are 14/64.

The quickest way of computing this probability is using factorials, which is a mathematical function that is not too important to explain (look it up if you want).

The resulting probability of all 12 twelve wrestlers being big name is, believe it or not, one in five million!

To put it bluntly, this is a ridiculous improbability. The odds of this happening are about the same as someone playing the lottery every day and winning the jackpot roughly once every three days. It just isn’t going to happen.

So as I have shown, the odds that most of the results of this year's draft happen are minute. To say they are believable would be laughable.

I know there are probably many of you reading this thinking, “It’s all set up anyway—why are you so worked up?” Believe me, I know it’s made up in advance by the WWE, but the fact is they continue to sell it as random.

The draft could be billed as something other than random, perhaps where the GMs get to make picks. This way it would be more likely that they would take big names, and would certainly make it more believable.

I’m sorry, WWE, but the numbers just don’t add up. I would say, “do the math,” but I have just done it for you.