Dear John Wall: Why Duke Really Is the Best Situation for You

Dear John Wall (or anyone who knows Mr. Wall and can get him to read this),

Choosing Duke University really is your best option. Now I know you’ve heard that from Memphis, Baylor, Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina, Miami, and Florida fans as well (and for the sake of full disclosure, I am a HUGE Blue Devil fan—since 1989), and I know words like “best” tend to be very subjective, but if you give me a brief moment of your time, I’m confident I can make my case.

Having never been a big time D-I prospect, I can only guess what actually goes into deciding which school to attend. While my list won’t be exhaustive, it will include what I generally consider to be some of the most important factors.

1. Which program will prepare you best for the next level of your basketball career (you want to get paid)?

There is an ongoing debate as to why collegiate success does not translate into comparable professional success for Duke Basketball alumni. I think it’s a silly discussion since the skills necessary to excel at the collegiate level doesn’t necessarily lead to success in the NBA.

I’m of the opinion that the real measure of success in this regard should be how many players are afforded the opportunity to continue their basketball careers professionally. In this case, Duke is the clear winner. According to RPIRankings.com, Duke led all schools with 14 players on opening day NBA rosters for the 2008-2009 NBA season.  The article also notes that the ACC leads all conferences with 58 players on opening day rosters (out of 438 total NBA players).

While making it to the NBA is certainly an accomplishment, the fact remains that in and of itself it is not a compelling enough reason to select a school. At the end of the day, the higher you are drafted, the more money you make up front, and the greater your long-term earning potential is professionally.  Since the NBA draft lottery began in 1985, Duke has produced 14 NBA draft lottery picks under coach Mike Krzyzewski—more than any other coach. In total, Coach K has produced 39 NBA draft picks, 27 of them taken in the first round.

Regardless of where you are drafted, or if you are drafted at all for that matter (DeMarcus Nelson), NBA monetary success isn’t just about your initial contract. The real money comes if and when you sign your second contract, provided you are fortunate enough to have one offered.  With that said, for the fourth time in five years, Duke has the highest paid alumni group in the NBA, with a total of over $74 million. That averages out to over $5.3 million a year—higher than the NBA average (while the minimum NBA salary varies based upon the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the average NBA player is earning almost $5 million annually).  It should also be noted that of the 14 current Duke players on NBA rosters, all but four are beyond their initial contracts, suggesting that despite the Duke stereotype, NBA teams are willing to re-up and pay them handsomely after their initial contract.

Finally, as evidenced most clearly by Grant Hill, a high-profile player from Duke is a marketer's dream. While I don’t have any specific statistics to cite, the exposure Duke affords its players, combined with the reputation players from Duke have, ensures that endorsement opportunities will be available as well.  In other words, Duke is the best school to help craft your future/long-term image.

2. Which program will put you in the best position to succeed at the collegiate level (you want to shine and leave your mark)?

It’s no secret that Coach K led the U.S. Olympic team to its return to glory at the Beijing Olympics last summer. His success went far beyond X’s and O’s and extended to the relationship he developed with his players.  Almost to a man they not only raved about his performance, but similar to your experience on your visit to Duke, they also admitted that their experience was much different than their expectations in a very positive way.  Even Kobe Bryant, who is universally recognized as the best basketball player on earth by fans, coaches, writers, and his peers alike, has said that he often regrets not going to Duke out of high school (this despite having won three NBA Championships and an MVP award - with potentially another MVP, another NBA Championship, and a Championship MVP possible this year).

Coach K has demonstrated his ability to showcase the skills of his PG in a variety of ways. From Bobby Hurley’s more half-court set (he still holds the all-time NCAA Division I record for assists in a career) to the more transition-oriented Jason Williams, the PG position has been an opportunity for Duke players to showcase their skills at the highest level (obviously the Jay Will model fits your style of play most).  Part of this stems from Coach K’s background as a PG himself at Army under legendary coach Bob Knight (all-time winningest coach in men’s Division I basketball history).  Part of it stems from his appreciation of how Johnny Dawkins (current coach of the men’s basketball team at Stanford University) helped begin his 25-year and counting reign as college basketball’s most successful and prominent figure.

Revisiting the 2008 Olympic “Redeem” team, Coach K now implements Coach Mike D’Antoni’s up-tempo fast-break dream offense for a PG. Given the fact that you will likely play PG at the next level, what better way to showcase your skills?

Next, consider the returning players on each team you are currently considering - here is where the personnel issue comes into play.  I’m of the opinion that when making a decision one should do so from a worst-case scenario, and from a worst-case scenario Duke will have the most ideal returning personnel for you.

Baylor, Miami, and Memphis won’t have the personnel necessary for you to both succeed as a team and shine individually. 

Now I know some may point out that coach John Calipari has an offensive scheme that appeals to your skill-set as well.  At Kentucky you will have talented freshman big men at your disposal, but that proves most effective in a half-court set. Plus, they are the type of players that will require a lot of offensive attention to keep them happy.  It also won’t allow for the tenacious defensive philosophy Coach Calipari has typically utilized in the past, which will impact your ability to fully showcase your talents.

Kansas and North Carolina have solid personnel, but at Kansas you’d have to move over to SG most likely, with Sherron Collins a more typical PG.  Meanwhile, North Carolina will be dominated by its frontcourt.

My brother told me that Rivals.com is reporting your new interest in Florida, which baffles me most. Sharing shots is one thing. Sharing shots with Kenny Boynton is another. You both essentially play the same position and have similar skill-sets.  A team can have a dominant small and big (Kansas). A team can even have a dominant backcourt (North Carolina).  A team can have a dominant player at every position (Arizona in 2001).  Please name me one team that has had two dominant PGs and succeeded...

What is most notably missing from all of those squads are perimeter shooters. While big men help create space on the perimeter by demanding double teams, that’s only good if you like to shoot mid to long-range jump shots a lot because dominant big men require space in the post to operate most effectively (they clog up the lane for penetration).  Shooters help spread the court for penetration that affords you the option to drop off to big men for dimes and/or kick out to shooters for assists (or showcase your mid-range game and/or ability to finish above the rim). Only one team gives you an ideal combination of both: Duke.

Granted, Duke’s big men are not Cole Aldrich at Kansas or even Ed Davis at North Carolina, but Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek have proven to have great hands with the ability to finish when properly set up.  With two incoming McDonald’s All-Americans 6’10” or taller in Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly, along with Plumlee’s older brother Miles, Duke will have a big-man-by-committee rotation that should allow you to contend with even the most dominant frontcourts in the country next year (get your fair share of post assists).

More unique to Duke are its perimeter players, which are among the best in the country. Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer can shoot the rock with anyone. Nolan Smith can shoot as well (especially when he gets wide-open looks), and his ability to create for others should continue to improve in the offseason.  Elliot Williams should continue to develop his jumper in the offseason such that he too can knock down open looks (with his athleticism, at least one 'oop a game is a given).

Under my worst case scenario described earlier, all of this presumes that G is going pro (if he return AND you commit, you can pencil yourselves in for the 2010 Final 4 in Indy if you are willing to put forth the necessary effort).  Even without Gerald Henderson, you are talking about the Final Four as a very realistic scenario. Should you commit, my suspicion is that Henderson will return for his senior year, and his ability to both shoot and penetrate will make a National Championship a very realistic possibility.

Duke’s personnel afford you the coveted ability to showcase your ability to work within a team structure while simultaneously shining individually. The 2001 National Championship team had five future NBA picks on it, and yet each is remembered for his unique contribution.  That team also demonstrates how you would fit perfectly into Duke’s offense. Jason Williams got points, assists, conference and national awards, won a national championship, graduated with a college degree and was a top 2 pick in the NBA Draft (only took him 3 years to do it all too).

In addition to personnel, Duke easily has the best facilities available to you of any school in the country. During the Davidson vs. Duke game this past season, Mark Jackson (former NBA player) and Stan Van Gundy (former NBA coach) marveled at how impressive the new basketball facility was, and commented on several occasions that it was better than many NBA practice facilities.  Seth Curry (led all freshman in scoring this past year and recently transferred to Duke) and his father Dell (former NBA player) commented that it played an integral role in why he chose to transfer there.

In addition, Duke has additional resources such as the Student-Athlete Counseling Committee, which helps maximize your transition from the amateur to professional ranks. 

Another resource unique to Duke is the fact that every single one of your games is nationally televised - every professional scout will get to watch you play all the time whether their budget allows them to travel to your games personally or not.  This fact also applies to your family (see below), who will also be able to see you play every game.  That type of exposure is good preparation for what comes next at the professional level.

Coach K is himself an unmatched resource. He has more victories, more conference championships and more National Championships than any other active coach. He has earned the respect of the best the NBA has to offer as a coach. He has sent more of his players to the NBA than any other coach, and those players make the most money.  He has had more All-Americans than any other coach, more National Players of the Year, more National Defensive Players of the Year...shall I continue?

If that were not enough, what better place to play than Cameron Indoor Stadium? The Cameron Crazies are the most loyal and ravenous fans, supportive through the ups and downs that comprise a season. Having spent a summer at Duke as an undergraduate, Durham is as ideal a college environment as there is.

There is the added bonus of playing in the best college basketball rivalry, and arguably the greatest rivalry in all of sports: Duke vs. UNC.  Given the recent history of the rivalry, imagine what would happen if you helped bring Duke a victory over UNC in Cameron!

3. Which program will provide for you best outside of/after basketball (you can’t hoop forever)?

Again, from the perspective of worst-case scenario, what happens if this whole basketball thing doesn’t work out for you? According to a March 17, 2009 article in USA Today, graduates of Duke University earn an average of $102,000 annually.  Having a degree from a top-10 institution of higher learning to fall back on can never be a bad thing.

Even if basketball does work out for you, the reality is that you will spend the vast majority of your life post-NBA.  Look at what former Blue Devil basketball alumni are doing: Mike Gminski, Jay Bilas, and Jason Williams are successful commentators; Johnny Dawkins, Tommy Amaker, and Quin Snyder are head coaches; Steve Wojciechowski, Nate James, and Chris Carrawell are assistant coaches; Billy King (was - responsible or AI) and Danny Ferry (is - responsible for King James) are NBA GM's.  Many more have gone on to be successful careers in business, law, medicine, and politics—Reggie Love is President Barack Obama’s “body man.”

These examples speak to the fact that Coach K and his program will help you develop not only as a basketball player, but more importantly as a young man. 

4. Which program will prove most convenient for your family (the chance to play close to home is always a good thing)?

Being from North Carolina and starring in your home state has long-term benefits well beyond your playing career. In addition, having your family able to come to all of your home games, and many of your away games, is priceless.

Memphis, Baylor, Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina, Miami, and Florida are all fine institutions in their own rights. Each likely has individual characteristics that may prove more favorable for you under scrutiny.

As a body of work, however, only one institution affords you an ideal mix of everything a high level high school basketball recruit could want: the Duke University Blue Devils.

Sincerely,

Tarik Barrett

Duke Fan circa 1989