Michigan State Basketball: Best-Case, Worst-Case Scenarios in Big Ten Tournament

Now that the Michigan State Spartans have successfully navigated their way through the rocky paths of the Big Ten basketball season, it's time for coach Tom Izzo's men to shift their focus toward the Big Ten tournament before heading into a familiar "second season"—also known as March Madness—for Izzo-led teams. 

Finishing 24-7 overall and 13-5 in league play, Michigan State was once considered a viable national title threat before hitting a treacherous, three-game slide prior to closing out its docket with wins over the Wisconsin Badgers and Northwestern Wildcats. 

Nonetheless, it's March and it's tournament time—the tournament-before-the-tournament time—and the No. 7-ranked Spartans have the opportunity to put themselves with the Indiana Hoosiers at the top of the league's pecking order. The Hoosiers may have won both duels with Michigan State and an outright conference championship, but Izzo's crew, when hot, is just as dangerous as Tom Crean's boys in Bloomington. 

This slideshow will examine the potential good and the potential bad in regards to Michigan State's results in the conference tourney. The obvious good would be winning it all, while the obvious bad would be an early exit Friday at the hands of Northwestern or Iowa (Big Ten tournament bracket). 

Worst-Case Scenario: Playing Northwestern in Game 8 of B1G Tourney

It may be odd to suggest, but playing the Northwestern Wildcats in Game 8—the Spartans' opening-game of the Big Ten tournament—would be a worst-case scenario. 

How could a team that struggled to a 4-14 league record be a threat to Michigan State? 

Don't forget that the Spartans limped to a 71-61 season-ending victory Sunday over Northwestern at the Breslin Center. 

While it was a 10-point win, the Spartans failed to really corral the Wildcats for 40 minutes—and that makes the Wildcats a dangerous "first-round" opponent for Michigan State. Beating the same team in back-to-back games, despite nearly a week's rest, isn't easy to do in college basketball. 

The No. 3-seeded Spartans could run into similar scenarios later in the tournament, should they advance past their opening date, against Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin, just to name a few. Winning three-of-three or losing three-of-three to the same team isn't common for the Big Ten's upper-echelon programs.

As the tournament plays out, a brighter, more vivid picture will form. The Spartans won't be the only team faced with an uphill climb against other two-time-a-year opponents from the regular season. 

As for now (this slide), let's focus on Michigan State versus No. 11-seeded Northwestern, a team the Spartans faced just once in the regular season—and that presents another challenge for Izzo: Lack of familiarity with the Wildcats. 

Freshman forward Kale Abrahamson's season numbers aren't all that impressive, but he's certainly honed in on his zone during the past seven games; he's scored in double-figures twice and has earned a dramatic increase in playing time, frequently playing over 28 minutes since mid-February. 

The 6'7" frosh scored 16 points Sunday against Michigan State. He could be due for an encore should the Wildcats get past Iowa on Thursday. 

Worst-Case Scenario: Losing to Northwestern in Game 8 (Opening Round)

If the Spartans were to lose to Northwestern, their stock would plummet in the eyes of hardcore bracketologists, likely causing a No. 4 or No. 5 seed to be given come Selection Sunday. 

Now, that could impact the Spartans in a negative manner, given past matchups and what transpired in 2012. 

We've all seen how No. 4- versus No. 13-seeded teams have failed in the past. The same has been true for No. 5-seeds against No. 12s. If Michigan State wants to have the easiest possible opening pairing in March Madness, getting a No. 2 seed, even a No. 3, would be best—that would be impossible if it lost its first game of the Big Ten tournament. 

Of course, No. 15-seeded Cinderellas have knocked off No. 2-seeded teams, and No. 3 seeds have dropped their first game of The Dance to No. 14-seeds—that's the magic of the tournament. 

Michigan State has lost in the "opening round" just four times since 2000, the year it won the NCAA title. Adding No. 5 to that list would be a vast disappointment for this year's Spartans team. 

Northwestern could be the catalyst for a rough ride for Michigan State. Of course, most of the analysis is based on speculation and what-ifs, but that's why it's called a worst-case scenario. 

Doom and gloom could easily follow an early exit in the Big Ten tournament. 

However, an early exit could be a positive in terms of rest. It's difficult to predict just how a team reacts—some need the rest and come out firing after an early bow, while others fall apart and never recover. We'll analyze that aspect later in this slideshow. 

Worst-Case Scenario: Losing to Michigan in B1G Tourney Title Game

Falling to Indiana in the B1G tournament championship would hurt, but losing to Michigan would be the ultimate slap in the face for Michigan State, which posted a 1-1 record against its in-state foe. 

Should the Spartans advance that far, stumbling against Big Ten Player of the Year Trey Burke and the Wolverines would be an ego-crusher for Michigan State followers. Any team but Michigan—any team—wouldn't be so bad. 

Not only would a high seed in The Dance be on the line, but the conversation of which team really rules college basketball in Michigan would be answered, although temporarily. The Wolverines would enjoy the win and, like the Spartans, have to prepare for another tournament—the tournament. 

Now, the real proof of which program is the Great Lakes State's elite would ultimately be determined by Michigan State's and Michigan's results in March Madness.

Worst-Case Scenario: Injury to Keith Appling

Keith Appling, although inconsistent for much of the latter half of Big Ten play, is Michigan State's motor—he drives the Spartans' offense. 

The junior finished the conference regular-season with 16- and 19-point games in two wins, but he was a no-show when Michigan State needed him most against Indiana (twice) and Ohio State. But that doesn't negate his importance for the Spartans, who received nine points in the final 2:30 in a 2011 first-round March Madness loss to UCLA.

If Appling returns to being himself, he could most definitely carry the Spartans to a Big Ten tournament championship or further. Guards rule tournament play in most cases, and the Spartans have been known to ride the backs of guys like Mateen Cleaves, Kalin Lucas and Drew Neitzel. 

Could Appling add himself to the list? He'll have a lot to prove this week, and if he were to fall victim to an injury, Michigan State would be decimated. 

Best-Case Scenario: Adreian Payne Reaches Another Level

Adreian Payne may not be a household name outside of the Big Ten, but he's certainly a star within his own league who has the potential to become a nationally known player by the end of March. 

His phenomenal athleticism has led to double-doubles that would make even Draymond Green blush. With mid-teen totals in points and rebounds, Payne has emerged as an inside-outside threat who presents 1-on-1 issues for forwards and centers around the B1G. 

If Payne continues his rampant pace, he could end up being Michigan State's hero in the Big Ten tournament. 

Best-Case Scenario: Facing Nebraska in Game 10 (Final Four)

If Michigan State advances to the "Final Four" of the Big Ten tournament, facing the Nebraska Cornhuskers would be an ideal situation. 

Nebraska, the No. 10-seeded team, has to vault over Purdue before earning a date with Ohio State, the No. 2 seed in the conference tourney. If that happens, a little bit of March luck would be needed to down the Buckeyes. 

Highly unlikely, yes. 

But not impossible. 

Nebraska finished at 5-13 in Big Ten play and never really showed an ability to compete with the top-tier programs that the Big Ten has to offer—that makes the Huskers either a pushover, or a sleeper to watch. 

The either-or scenario is a fun discussion, isn't it? 

If for some reason lightning strikes Nebraska and it ends up in the tournament's semifinals, the Spartans would certainly benefit. 

Let's face it, a Nebraska club with a sense of confidence would be a paper tiger for Michigan State. That may be a cocky statement considering the fact that the Spartans etched nine- and 10-point victories in both meetings, but, as mentioned, Nebraska failed to really compete with the Big Ten's elite. 

Obviously, this would be a best, best-case scenario. 

Best-Case Scenario: Winning Big Ten Tournament Title

Michigan State found its way to the Final Four twice after winning the Big Ten tournament. 

In 1999, the Spartans fell to Duke in the semis, but they cut down the nets in Indianapolis after beating Florida in the 2000 national championship. 

The superstitious types would probably love to see Michigan State win its conference tournament championship due to the 2-of-3 odds (won in 2012, didn't get to Final Four) of outlasting all but three teams in March Madness. 

For more on coach Izzo's success in March, visit his official website. 

Best-Case Scenario: Drawing Indiana in B1G Tourney Title Game

This may come as a shocker, but drawing the Big Ten's best team in the conference tourney championship would be a best-case scenario for Michigan State. 

Why? 

Well, as mentioned in an earlier slide, getting beaten by the same team thrice in one year isn't common. Michigan State already has two close losses, so the third time could be the proverbial charm for Tom Izzo's group. 

Getting Wisconsin wouldn't be the best fit, as Michigan State won the past meeting with relative ease—that would make for a revenge-minded Badgers clan.

A Spartans-Hoosiers matchup in the B1G tourney title would be a fan-friendly event. The coaching duel between Izzo and Tom Crean would be a treat, too—especially with league bragging rights on the line. 

Follow Bleacher Report's Michigan State Spartans basketball writer Adam Biggers on Twitter @AdamBiggers81