UFC on Fuel 8 Preliminary Card Staff Predictions

If you are feeling the hangover from last weekend's UFC 157, it's time to level yourself off with an under-the-radar card in Japan.

That's right, it's time for UFC on Fuel 8, live from the famous Saitama Super Arena in Japan.

If that arena sounds familiar, it is legendary for hosting some of the Pride events in years past, when the sport was still gaining its popularity.

As with all events, it's time to predict the preliminary card fights. Our prestigious panel includes Scott Harris (@ScottHarrisMMA), Andrew Saunders (@SaundersMMA), Dwight Wakabayashi (@wakafightermma), James MacDonald (@JimMacDonaldMMA) and myself, Riley Kontek (@RileyKontek). 

Prediction Accuracy Since UFC on FX 7

Since the UFC on FX 7, there have been five UFC cards that we, as the prelims prediction team, have looked at. Here is the prediction accuracy and records of our five panelists.

1. Dwight Wakabayashi: 64% (21-12)

T2. Riley Kontek: 61% (20-13)

T2. Andrew Saunders: 61% (20-13)

4. James MacDonald: 55% (18-15)

5. Scott Harris: 42% (14-19)

Marcelo Guimaraes vs. Hyun Gyu Lim

Kontek: Marcelo Guimaraes was anything but impressive in his UFC debut, but he takes on a highly touted South Korean in the form of Hyun Gyu Lim. Lim has solid takedown defense and good striking, which should be enough for him to edge Guimaraes in a forgettable affair.

Lim, Unanimous Decision

Harris: Lim should extend an impressive recent UFC run from South Korean fighters. After a false start last year, the 28-year-old knockout artist is making his UFC debut. I'm expecting a good fight with Lim's hand raised at the end.

Lim, TKO, Rd. 2

Saunders: Lim has a disgusting reach for a welterweight (82") and likes to pound out grapplers like Guimaraes with power striking.

Lim, TKO, Rd. 1

Wakabayashi: These two were supposed to fight in Macau last year. The Brazilian southpaw Guimeraes is undefeated and will make his second appearance in the UFC, while Hyun Gyu Lim will make his UFC debut. I like the southpaw in this one.

Guimaraes, Unanimous Decision

MacDonald: Guimeraes has a decent record on the Brazilian fight scene, but he didn’t exactly look like killer last time out, against the middling talents of Dan Stittgen. In contrast, Lim appears to have some decent potential—at least enough to retain his spot on the roster.

Lim, TKO, Rd. 3

Staff picking Guimaraes: Wakabayashi

Staff picking Lim: Kontek, Harris, MacDonald, Saunders

Alex Caceres vs. Kyung Ho Kang

Kontek: Another South Korean in the form of Kyung Ho Kang will make his UFC debut against the man affectionately known as "Bruce Leeroy." Alex Caceres has looked much improved lately, and will continue to show that with an eye-opening victory against Kang. Do I ever pick against the guy with the afro?

Caceres, Unanimous Decision

Harris: I really don't know what to make of Alex Caceres. I definitely don't consider him a world beater, but he does seem to improve with each fight. Kang is another promising South Korean, but I think "Bruce Leroy" pulls his one out. But I could be completely and utterly wrong.

Caceres, Unanimous Decision

Saunders: Although Kang appears to have a decent handle on Caceres' kryptonite, the level of opposition that he has previously faced doesn't quite live up to UFC standards. As a betting man, I've got to learn towards a proven commodity in Caceres over a newcomer who holds a professional record of 11-6.

Caceres, TKO, Rd. 2

Wakabayashi: Another one rescheduled from the Macau show, Caceres is fighting in Asia again following a razor thin win in China last year. He is an ever improving fighter on a mini two win streak. Caceres is pretty solid no matter where the fight is taking place. Kang is making his debut on a three fight winning streak and is a submission specialist. He won't get a tap from Caceres though.

Caceres, Unanimous Decision

MacDonald: Caceres has made some significant improvements since his annoying stint on TUF. Few expected him to be able to hang with the talent in the UFC, but he has been surprisingly successful since the show wrapped. He should have too much in his toolkit for the debuting Kang.

Caceres, Unanimous Decision

Staff Picking Caceres: Kontek, Wakabayashi, Harris, MacDonald, Saunders

Staff Picking Kang: None 

Cristiano Marcello vs. Kazuki Tokudome

Kontek: Out of all the Japanese lightweights the UFC could have signed for this card, they went with Kazuki Tokudome. Maybe the UFC knows something that I don't. Either way, Cristiano Marcello is a high-level jiu-jitsu guy with good experience and some backstage memories of choking out Charles "Krazy Horse" Bennett to relive from back in the day.

Marcello, Submission, Rd. 2

Harris: I'm always skeptical when a fighter is debuting in his home country. It makes me think that other factors besides fighting ability were considered; nothing wrong with that, unless you're that fighter and you're trying to win a fight. Tokudome's no can, but I like Marcello's physical submission game to win the day.

Marcello, Submission, Rd. 2

Saunders: Tokudome is a more well-rounded fighter, although Marcello has the grappling to end this fight if it hits the ground. However, Tokudome has not been submitted since his professional debut, so I like his chances.

Tokudome, TKO, Rd. 3

Wakabayashi: Marcello is a TUF 15 Alum who likes to play the game on the ground as much as possible and he has looked very solid in the UFC. Tokudome is on a two fight winning streak and a Pancrase veteran set to make his debut. He has a bit more pop in his punches but this is a big step up for him.

Marcello, Submission, Rd. 1

MacDonald: I know that the UFC likes to throw the home crowd a bone by including some local talent, but I don’t see this as anything other than a gimme for Marcello. He has far too much experience and his grappling will be too strong for Tokudome.

Marcello, Submission, Rd. 1

Staff Picking Marcello: Kontek, Wakabayashi, Harris, MacDonald

Staff Picking Tokudome: Saunders 

Takeya Mizugaki vs. Bryan Caraway

Kontek: It is shocking to note that Takeya Mizugaki has never won or lost back-to-back fights under the Zuffa umbrella. He won his last fight, so history tells us he will take a setback against Bryan Caraway. History be damned!

Mizugaki, Unanimous Decision

Harris: This could be a really good fight. Caraway's a submission sniper, but Mizugaki can roll with the best of them. Interesting side note: Mizugaki has gone win/loss in his last 10 contests. But I think he'll buck that trend this weekend and get his second consecutive W.

Mizugaki, Split Decision 

Saunders: Mizugaki has excellent takedown defense, which he will need in order to avoid the grappling-intensive attack of his opponent. However, Caraway's chin is solid enough to withstand whatever the Japanese star can throw his way.

Mizugaki, Unanimous Decision

Wakabayashi: Two experienced veterans lock horns here but Mizugaki has been up and down recently and could be fighting to save his job in his home country. Caraway is on an impressive three fight win streak and is a relentless grappling game will be too much for Mizugaki.

Caraway, Unanimous Decision

MacDonald: Despite Ronda Rousey’s claims to the contrary, Bryan Caraway is in no sense a pushover. That being said, Mizugaki has been in against much stiffer competition. He should have a little bit too much for Miesha Tate’s other half.

Mizugaki, Unanimous Decision

Staff Picking Mizugaki: Kontek, Harris, MacDonald, Saunders

Staff Picking Caraway: Wakabayashi

Brad Tavares vs. Riki Fukuda

Kontek: Does one take Riki Fukuda on home soil or Brad Tavares and his recent surge? Tavares's well-fought victory over Tom Watson was a huge win for him and Fukuda is yet to prove consistency in the Octagon. I'll take the former TUF 11 competitor in this one.

Tavares, Unanimous Decision

Harris: Fukuda has never really hit his stride in the UFC; his only wins came over Steve Cantwell and Tom DeBlass. A murderer's row that is not. Tavares has the wrestling base and the ground-and-pound to mark up Fukuda and win his third straight.

Tavares, Unanimous Decision

Saunders: Tavares has given wrestlers fits in the past, courtesy of his impressive takedown defense. In fact, the Hawaiian has shut down 86 percent of his opponents' attempts to wrestle their way to the canvas. Fukuda can win this fight with constant pressure from the clinch. It won't be pretty, but that's how Aaron Simpson got the job done and "Killer Bee" has similar strengths.

Fukuda, Unanimous Decision 

Wakabayashi: Probably the most relevant or at least recognizable fight on the under card and both are coming off solid wins. Fukuda is a fan favorite but I'll take Tavares' age, size and reach in this one.

Tavares, Unanimous Decision

MacDonald: Brad Tavares has more potential than most people give him credit for. He looked terrific against Tom Watson and, with the exception of his loss to Aaron Simpson, he has progressed steadily qualitatively and quantitatively. Fukuda, in contrast, is fairly limited. He has a solid grappling base and he generally handles himself well on the feet. However, Tavares is the more talented fighter and I expect it to show.

Tavares, Unanimous Decision

Staff Picking Tavares: Kontek, Wakabayashi, Harris, MacDonald

Staff Picking Fukuda: Saunders