Davidson-Wisconsin: Cinderella vs. Consistency

 The focus all week has been on Davidson. Rightfully so, as the Wildcats, behind the play of sophomore guard Stephen Curry, upset Gonzaga and Georgetown in dramatic fashion.

Their opponent, Wisconsin, has fallen under the radar yet again, defeating Cal State Fullerton and Kansas State with little trouble or excitement.

That’s just the way the Badgers are. They lack flash and superstar talent, and to some they’re just plain boring to watch. No matter. UW wins.  

Trevon Hughes is one of the most talented players for Wisconsin, but one of the least consistent. Scoring 25 against Kansas State means nothing when it comes to how he’ll do against Davidson.

But who cares? The great quality about Wisconsin is that several key players can have off games and some one else is always there to pick up the slack.

You saw that firsthand in the Round of 32 game against the Wildcats. Senior Greg Stiemsma poured in a career-high 14 points when Brian Butch, “the Polar Bear,” was deep in hibernation.

While the game-to-game consistency lacks from individuals, the team’s steady success has not.

Davidson has tremendous talent, no doubt. To have played close with Duke, North Carolina and UCLA at the beginning of the season and to have beaten Georgetown, who relies on a top-tier defense and ball control like Wisconsin, and Gonzaga in the tournament suggests as much.

While Georgetown is great defensively, it is weak where Wisconsin is not, and that’s why Davidson had so much success. Let’s take a look.

Free Throws

Games in the NCAA Tournament can and will be determined at the free throw line.

Wisconsin is an above average team from the charity stripe, unlike Georgetown who couldn’t hit anything, shooting 70.7 percent on the season.

What’s more, the Badgers get to the line significantly more than their opponent, meaning free points and a slower-paced game.

Turnovers

Wisconsin simply doesn’t make mistakes. It turns the ball over a mere 12.2 times, meaning that Davidson must execute offensively. But even that could be problematic given the individual and team talent of UW’s defense.

Defense

The Badgers lead the nation in points allowed per game (53.9), and have allowed more than 60 points just seven times.

So what, you say? Georgetown was excellent defensively, but still lost to Davidson.

Well, that’s because the Hoyas got into foul trouble, and they lack the shut-down defender like the Badgers have in Michael Flowers. The Badger senior is one of the best one-on-one defenders in all of college basketball.

Even if he doesn’t completely take Curry off his game, Flowers should be able to limit the Wildcats star.

Frontcourt

The backcourt combination of Curry and Jason Richards will probably outplay Hughes and Flowers. That shouldn’t matter.

In my mind, the game will be won by the big men. Butch should be able to take any of Davidson’s post players inside and out. If he’s not there, Marcus Landry and Stiemsma will step up.

Davidson will make it close, as it has against the best teams this season. However, Wisconsin’s poise and ball control will put it over the top. That said, UW would then have to face the winner of the Kansas-Villanova game.

If the Badgers are the model of consistency, the Wildcats are the model of inconsistency.

They’ve come together at the right time, making it to the Sweet Sixteen. As quickly as Villanova has come together, it could just as quickly fall apart.

Scottie Reynolds is the glue that holds that team together; when he’s on—and when Corey Fisher plays to his potential—Villanova can beat anybody.

Good at shooting and getting out in transition, the Wildcats could pose problems for the Badgers.

However, the talent, depth and athleticism of Kansas is a lot more challenging to defend.

Kansas and Wisconsin are both balanced offensively, only the Jayhawks have more talent across the board.

About the only thing favoring UW (beside intangibles) in an Elite Eight date with KU is that the Jayhawks haven’t exactly played a difficult schedule. The team’s best win this season other than Texas was a 72-55 win at Texas A&M, so it will be interesting to see how the best of the Big Ten and the best of the Big 12 compare.

Ultimately, this game could come down to coaching, and with Bill Self’s knack for losing the big games (having never made it past the Elite Eight), give the advantage in a close game to Wisconsin.