Spurs Streak the Wrong Way With Duncan Hobbled, Fall Victim to Own Psychology

Gregg Popovich's nightmare began an hour before tipoff of a key game Feb. 15 against the Dallas Mavericks.

Tim Duncan had just finished a shoot-around and was preparing for his usual pre-game rest—when both knees locked up.

Then, Duncan told Popovich something rarely heard since the San Antonio Spurs selected him in 1997.

"I can't play tonight."

Even though the Spurs routed the Mavs that night 93-76, with Duncan and Manu Ginobili in street clothes, the team would not recover from the uncertainty and shock of the late injury scratch.

Were there a dictionary of NBA vernacular, you would find the 12-year veteran's picture next to the word "gamer." The rule has usually been simple: if he can play, he plays. On this night, concern trumped convention.

The most telling comment from Popovich after the surprise blowout win? Duncan would not have played, even if it was the playoffs.

Popovich has since forced Duncan to sit five other times and chopped his heavy dose of minutes from the high 30s to the high 20s.

The hard-headed coach refused to risk the health of his best player to win a regular season game, even with the dogfight for the conference's second seed at a climax.

The San Antonio Express-News reported in four of those five contests that Duncan begged to play. Popovich slammed his proverbial gavel and upset his franchise star for a few nights so he would not lose him when it counted in the playoffs.

The Spurs' problem—these games count, too.

For most of the Popovich-Duncan era, the Spurs have rolled like thunder in March. Tuesday night, the 21-win Oklahoma City Thunder rolled them at home.

The team's 9-8 record in March is the worst since the 1997 lottery season that landed Duncan.

The maddening 96-95 upset also marked the Spurs' 13th loss at the AT&T Center this season, the most home defeats since—you guessed it, 1997.

San Antonio losing to lottery teams is nothing new. But San Antonio losing to lottery teams with the playoffs weeks away?

Popovich might consider joining those manically depressed fans already headed for the Tower of the Americas. Maybe he should take the shorter route and drown himself in the Riverwalk.

Mark Cuban would be amused.

There is nothing humorous about the Spurs' latest jaunt to professional basketball hell.

Injuries to Duncan and Ginobili landed them in such unfamiliar March territory, and the irresolution caused by it all may keep them there.

With precious little time to figure out how to stop this torturous streak of missed chances and choke jobs, the Spurs are on the ropes. For the first time in the Duncan era, they seem willing to concede that Father Time is the one pulling the punches.

The slump

Nets Coach Lawrence Frank called Duncan "a beast" after his 30 points and 15 rebounds helped The Spurs eke out a four-point win over New Jersey in San Antonio earlier this year.

It was a night of typical Duncan brilliance. He faced up rookie Brook Lopez for his patented bank shot twice in the fourth quarter to stave off Nets rallies and quarterbacked his team to a needed win.

Popovich asked No. 21 to do this for much of November, as his two explosive guards sat out in sport coats. After a dismal 1-4 start, including the first opening night loss in the Duncan era, the team adapted to life without Parker and Ginobili and won enough to stay afloat.

If Western Conference teams hoped to bury the banged-up Spurs in the first month, Duncan stole back the shovel, knocked them unconscious and barged his way into the MVP discussion.

Had Duncan not carried them, the Spurs would be in worse quicksand now than the defenseless Phoenix Suns.

His averages of 21 points and 11 rebounds were his best in nearly five years, and he looked and moved almost as freely as he did at Wake Forest.

That euphoric return to dominance ended sometime in February.

Duncan aggravated his sore knees in a game against the Golden State Warriors. The next night in Denver, Popovich caused a national uproar when he opted to sit Duncan, Parker, Ginobili and Michael Finley.

Why did Popovich throw a game against a division leader with the season series and tiebreaker on the line?

Now we know.

Buck Harvey mentioned in a column weeks later that Duncan's knees hurt "every day." No one in Central Texas wanted to hear that surprise aside.

Duncan notched 20 and 18 Feb. 11 against the Raptors and 26 and 15 against the Knicks Feb. 17. Who knew a post All-Star game slump was coming? Nevermind that the Spurs lost both of the above games to lowly, defenseless squads.

In the weeks since those demoralizing losses, Duncan has scored more than 15 points only three times. His 43 percent field goal percentage since the midseason break is a career worst. He has scored more than two points in the fourth quarter four times.

In several defeats in that span, including the big one to the Lakers at the AT&T Center, Duncan missed layups, bunnies and chip shots.

Popovich now paces the sidelines with an intense fear in his eyes because he wonders which version of Duncan he'll have in the playoffs.

One sequence in the fourth quarter of a 90-86 road loss to the Hornets summarizes the slump. The Spurs needed a bucket, so Duncan secured deep post position against Hilton Armstrong, and passed to a wide open three-point shooter in the corner.

That passive play resulted in one of San Antonio's 22 misses from behind the arc. The Duncan who closed out the three-time champion Lakers at the Staples Center in 2003 would have taken that shot.

Even the Duncan of the last several years would have taken a jump-hook there.

If he now lacks the confidence to throw up big shots, how far can the team built around him go in the playoffs?

Will Drew Gooden fit?

A few weeks into his tenure as a Spur, Gooden should receive an incomplete grade. Popovich still has no idea if the oft-traded 28-year-old forward can help his squad in the playoffs.

The injuries to Duncan and Ginobili surfaced at the time the coach normally sets his postseason rotation.

What rotation, Pop?

Gooden played nine minutes against the Thunder and 19 minutes against the Hornets. His best outings: 13 points in an 88-85 win at Houston, and 14 points in a 111-98 home win over the LA Clippers.

The young and athletic Thunder led the Spurs by as many as 17 points Tuesday night. The Spurs' young and athletic rookie, George Hill, did not play.

In early March, Hill guarded Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant in crunch time. His steady diet of benchwarming in the last week might be what compelled Dave McMenamin of NBA.com to write that Courtney Lee is the lone rookie playing on a championship contender.

If this whack rotation keeps up, the Spurs won't even win a carnival game, much less a playoff one.

Popovich admits that although he hates tinkering with players this late in the season, the injuries give him no choice. Duncan will likely sit out the second game of the Spurs' final two back-to-backs, and Ginobili has yet to crack the 30-minute mark in a game since Feb. 11 in Toronto.

The move to make Roger Mason Jr. the team's full-time backup point guard has also backfired. One game-winner last week aside, Mason lost his shot after the role swap.

His forced stint at the point seems like one giant blur of bricks and turnovers. Popovich would rather tutor the veteran Mason than trust a rookie.

Ime Udoka has played his way back into the rotation while Bruce Bowen has found a way out of it.

Kevin Durant started Tuesday's game in Kobe Bryant fashion, nailing a contested step-back and then a leaner. He finished with 31 points.

Not once did Popovich summon Bowen to slow down the former Texas star.

And why did defensive stalwart Kurt Thomas play only seven minutes?

Popovich's likely answer to that question? "I have no idea."

Karma, bad luck sees Spurs lose at their own game

Rookie scrub Roko Ukic, a 23-percent three-point shooter at the time, drilled a dagger trey with Tony Parker in his face to lift the Raptors over the Spurs.

Russell Westbrook, an erratic shooter with a shaky stroke, swooshed a contested 20-footer to best the Spurs in Oklahoma City.

Glen "Big Baby" Davis calmly knocked down the 20-foot jumper that he missed four out of five times in the fourth quarter and overtime of a 111-110 loss to the Lakers. The Celtics edged the Spurs in San Antonio 80-77.

You could argue the Spurs as the best defensive team since the All-Star break. Yet, the unproven players who cannot make these low percentage shots against anyone else have made them in crunch time against the Spurs.

The Hornets shot 37 percent Sunday night and still won. The Spurs outscored the Thunder in the paint 50 to 26 and still lost.

Numbers that suggest the Spurs are headed for an early playoff exit seem endless.

The worst stomach churner of the month came two weeks ago with the Rockets in town for some payback.

Yao Ming twice dished to Luis Scola for uncontested layups that sparked an 87-85 road win for the Rockets.

"Think they could use him?" Brent Barry asked of the one the Spurs sent to Houston.

The common denominator in this March madness is Duncan. He has often looked nothing like the player who began the season on his best roll in five years.

Distressed Spurs fans know what to do. College fans do this when their favorite team bows in the annual tournament.

You know, scream.

Spurs' plan after Duncan? What plan?

Duncan will retire as soon as 2012 or as late as 2016. The Spurs want you to know they have a plan for when this happens.

Uh, uh, uhhhhhh, uh, uuuuuuh. Uuuuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhh.

Oh right, they don't have one.

Owner Peter Holt's refusal to pay the league's dreaded luxury tax will make it difficult to ever bring Tiago Splitter to San Antonio.

Ian Mahinmi must play a stretch of meaningful regular season games before anybody can judge his place in the organization. One scout said in 2005 that Mahinmi possessed "All-Star level talent."

One 18-point season in the D-League cannot make him Duncan, or even Andrew Bynum.

As such, the focus of the next few years will be maximizing Duncan. With Parker in his prime and Ginobili still an explosive game-changer when healthy, the Spurs have a championship starter kit.

If Duncan rights himself before the playoffs, and that seems unlikely now, San Antonio has the experience and the depth to win a title.

The Spurs priority next summer will be convincing Rasheed Wallace, Mehmet Okur or Andres Nocioni to play for the mid-level exception. If they still want championships, they'll listen.

The focus now, with the playoffs weeks away, and the Spurs seemingly farther from the NBA Finals than the Cookie Monster?

Prayer.

Popovich knows how season must end

Can anyone look at the Spurs' resume and not see glimpses of a champion?

They won in Boston, at Atlanta without Duncan, at Houston, at Denver by 17 points, at Phoenix twice, at Utah and a tough back-to-back against Dallas and Portland without Duncan and Ginobili. They beat the Lakers. Even if you want to call it a fluke win, they still beat them.

The Spurs boast the second-best road record in the West and the fifth best overall.

"When we lose we're old, when we win we're experienced," Popovich loves to say.

A pair of losses to Oklahoma City and choke jobs against the Hornets (who were missing three key cogs in Tyson, Chandler, James Posey and Peja Stojakovic,) and Celtics seem to say that the experienced men are headed for the NBA's nursing home.

If you don't trust the Spurs' defense, consider these numbers from the Celtics game. Paul Pierce shot a miserable 3-of-16 from the field and the Celtics, the fifth-best shooting team in the league, managed to make just 41 percent of their shots overall.

Michael Finley and Tony Parker combined to miss six straight free throws at the end of the game that cost the Spurs dearly. I saw it live.

Tuesday night, the Spurs secured the stop they needed to set up a potential game-winner against the Thunder. After nearly fumbling the ball out of bounds, none of the five players on the court thought to call timeout. The coaches were screaming at them to do it.

Finley's fall-away jumper skipped off the rim, and with that, the Spurs likely gave away any hope of the second seed.

Even the Nuggets are not immature enough to botch their easier schedule.

This newest hurdle is clear. The Spurs can no longer intimidate opponents just by showing up. For most of this month, even great defense has failed them.

Call it karma or bad luck or just a fluke month.

They must learn to close again. Making a few of those wide open three-pointers would help, too.

Most of all, they need No. 21 to leave Feb. 15 behind.

If Duncan cannot? Popovich's worst nightmare will only get worse.